A Nuclear Renaissance Would Benefit Grid Reliability
In our research report of January 13, NERC Designates 7 Regions as at Reliability Risk; What Is the Investment Opportunity for Utilities?, we explained how grid operators, concerned by widespread generator outages during periods of severe winter weather, are expanding the use of Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) to assess reserve adequacy. ELCC measures the probability of a generating resource being available to produce electricity at times when the reliability of the grid is at high risk, whether due to elevated demand or generator outages.
Nuclear power plants are the most reliable generating resource with an ELCC of 95%. Nuclear power's reliability stems from on-site fuel storage and a largely enclosed design, rendering these plants resilient to severe cold. While coal plants also have fuel on site, frozen coal piles, valves and pipes have often forced coal plants off line during winter storms. Gas-fired power plants do not have fuel on site, relying on the production, gathering, processing, and delivery of natural gas, a system subject to widespread failures during severe winter weather. As a result, fossil plants have much lower ELCCs that nuclear: 79% for gas and 85% for coal. From a reliability standpoint, wind, solar, and battery storage also rank poorly due to the intermittent availability of renewables and the short duration of dispatch of batteries. These constraints are reflected in ELCCs of less than 60% for four hour batteries, 35% for wind power, and 9% for solar.
The high reliability of nuclear power plants, and their ability to generate power without emitting greenhouse gases or other air pollutants, render them attractive both to data center owners and state regulators seeking to enhance reliability while minimizing carbon and other emissions. Nonetheless, no new nuclear power plants of conventional design are currently planned to be built, and the next generation of small modular reactors (SMRs) are unlikely to be ready before the early 2030s. In the interim, the repowering of retired nuclear power stations, upgrading the capacity of operating nuclear plants, the construction of new gas-fired capacity, and the deferral of coal plant retirements are the primary options to meet demand growth.
An option to enhance grid reliability would be to improve the reliability of existing gas and coal-fired generators by winterizing these fossil fuel plants. For gas plants, however, it will be necessary not only to winterize the plants themselves, but also the system of gas production, gathering, processing and delivery. Alternatively, existing gas plants must be upgraded to store and burn liquid fuel when gas is unavailable.
Anyone interested to discuss this issue is welcome to contact me at hwynne@ssrllc.com.
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