The Northern Think Tank

If small cos. are performing worse than feared or as feared, and if the larger cos. (mega-cap cos., tech cos., etc.) lose steam, that may cause a severe recession; can this narrative cause analysts' calls for a #Recession in 2025? After the last bout of price #Inflation, is it a reality that smaller cos. have become too expensive to operate? And due to a higher neutral rate, does that specter for smaller cos. change at all with rate cuts? And if a lower neutral rate is needed for smaller cos. to thrive, then is that the impetus for the #Fed to invoke lower rates at the expense of adequate revenue for the US budget? That may also cause the #Treasury to produce lower yields, decreasing revenue for the US budget, too, unless yields don't move in tandem with rates (as we are kind of seeing right now). And if all of this is true, then does that mean the US economy is experiencing a dramatic change in identity as it pertains to lower-income households? #Yields higher than the neutral rate in the future? That would mean higher payouts on #Treasurys for the US government; with lower revenues? All while deglobalization. Not to mention how a lower neutral rate would affect #Banks, lending, the housing market, etc. And for smaller cos., if #Energy prices continue to rise, does operating a small co. become more unfeasible? This begs the question: Is the same scenario playing out with energy the same way that lower rates played out for smaller cos. (smaller cos. had become accustomed to lower rates and were disproportionately affected by the rate increases, and the same with energy)? #Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ

Disinflation to be slower... https://lnkd.in/g-UkvMH3 TNTT - Short-term Treasurys may be a good hedge against the int’l trade: GER’s focus on IMD (India) & if US equities exposed to int’l investors. How long might a US equities correction last, though? #Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ

MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes (on X (Twitter))) - Job cuts have accelerated this month, to almost 92,000. #MacroEdge https://lnkd.in/g3AFaMUk TNTT - Will this translate into more volatility in the unemployment rate, causing an increase in unemployment? If so, would the Fed consider increasing the amount of cuts with sight on a no-landing? #Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ

@Schuldensuehner (on X (Twitter)) - Good Morning from Germany where Chancellor Olaf Scholz is shifting Germany's focus towards #India … https://lnkd.in/g6tST4GT TNTT - On this news, will the foreign-equities trade now payoff? And how will Chinese cos. benefit due to India’s trade strengthening with China (especially with EV proliferation)? #Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ

@markets (on X (Twitter)) - France’s credit rating was put on a negative outlook by Moody’s in the third warning in the space of two weeks https://lnkd.in/gZEpZeSM TNTT - This may be a net negative for the sentiment of the finance industry. Will money-markets increase? #Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ

Financial Times (@FT on X (Twitter)) - Europe’s economy poised to fall further behind US, IMF warns https://lnkd.in/gXwsUdMX TNTT - How does Europe’s situation get better? #Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ

Former EY CEO Mark Weinberger, federal deficit… https://lnkd.in/gt3Kn5zF TNTT - One way to solve for a burgeoning is to seize the inflow. One way to solve the US spending is to seize the costs: Self-sustaining programs are one way to seize costs and provide for welfare. #Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ

Evercore ISI: Lean into expensive market... https://lnkd.in/gYbK9DjY TNTT - Does election timing have anything to do w/ indices’ draw down today? If so & more funds go to money-markets, would that mean equities is increasingly exposed to int’l investors? $#Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ

@KobeissiLetter (on X (Twitter)) - … US net interest costs as a share of GDP are set to reach 6.3% by 2054, the highest on record…. https://lnkd.in/g-f5xdDR TNTT - Handling this narrative and responsibility is vital for US credit ratings, which might have a major impact on budget revenue. #Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ

A net positive for $UBER. #Economics #Industry #Markets #Finance #WSJ