The Cipher Brief

That’s the hope in Washington and other parts of the world. It’s not clear that Israel’s leaders see it the same way. #TheCipherBrief

NEW EPISODE of the #CoverStories Podcast out now. With The New York Times Best-Selling Author Tom Straw #TheCipherBrief New York Times Books And News Bill Harlow Listen here, or wherever else you listen to your podcasts. https://lnkd.in/g2FmXNBW

It’s an unprecedented set of demands and deadlines from Washington. Will it make a difference in Gaza? #TheCipherBrief

The Cipher Brief invites you to step back in time with us as we welcome Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) to The Cipher Brief’s Virtual Book Club on Tuesday, October 22 from 12:30 – 1:15p to talk about his latest novel, The Restless Wave: A Novel of the United States Navy put out by Penguin Publishing Group   Set during World War II, we'll follow Scott Bradley James through his decision to become a naval officer to Pearl Harbor and all of the restless waves he must navigate (they do of course, include love and intrigue)... Come spend your lunch hour with us next Tuesday as the Admiral walks us through his journey of writing the book and the adventure he created for his young, imperfect hero.   Save your seat now https://lnkd.in/gx-8Dz4Y Bill Harlow Tom Nagorski Brad Christian

The Cipher Brief invites you to step back in time with us as we welcome Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.) to The Cipher Brief’s Virtual Book Club on Tuesday, October 22 from 12:30 – 1:15p to talk about his latest novel, The Restless Wave: A Novel of the United States Navy…     Set during World War II, we will follow Scott Bradley James through his decision to become a naval officer to Pearl Harbor and all of the restless waves he must navigate (they do of course, include love and intrigue). Come spend your lunch hour with us next Tuesday as the Admiral walks us through his journey of writing the book and the adventure he created for his young, imperfect hero. #TheCipherBrief Penguin Press Penguin Publishing Group   Save my seat: https://lnkd.in/disA_Ecm

I appreciated this piece from The Cipher Brief - "How Russia's War Machine Keeps Raking In Money." In it, Hollie McKay examines the resilience of the Russian economy despite sanctions, focusing on how strategic partnerships and critical sectors such as oil, agriculture, and mining sustain the Kremlin's financial strength. Thanks to Suzanne and Brad for your continued leadership in national security insights. It's also great to see my longtime colleague and friend Dr. Treston Wheat,'s perspective featured, noting, "Russia is staying strong because countries that do not care about their aggression in Ukraine will still use their oil and natural gas." https://lnkd.in/eDqSpWtr #NationalSecurity #Geopolitics #EconomicSanctions #Russia #CipherBrief #strategicintelligence

The Kremlin has found multiple workarounds to a raft of Western sanctions. #TheCipherBrief Treston Wheat, PhD Sergey Sukhankin https://lnkd.in/emxXKgG7

Very much looking forward to talking about The Restless Wave at The Cipher Brief's very first virtual book club gathering! If you can't make it to the other in person events above and would like to join in conversation with Admiral James Stavridis virtually, please save your seat by signing up here: https://lnkd.in/gx-8Dz4Y Hope to see you soon!

Last weekend I had the privilege of moderating a panel at the Cipher Brief’s 2024 Threat Conference, entitled “Understanding What’s Fully at Stake in Ukraine: A Conversation Among Experts”, which included Paul Kolbe Glenn C. Ralph Goff and Douglas Lute. To set the tone for this timely discussion, I opened with a quote from Phillips O’Brien, a professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews, which he had tweeted out only the day before. He said, “It’s quite remarkable that we are at a moment where there is finally a growing consensus that it was a massive failure not to arm Ukraine properly in 2022 and 2023, and yet at the same time, people are trying to say we don’t need to give Ukraine ranged weapons now.” Throughout this critical exchange the panel addressed numerous questions, including some on our analytic miscalculations, and on how decisions framed from them over the course of this war regarding U.S. use of power and at times failure to assert our own “red lines” were perceived as weakness by Russia, inviting increased aggression against Ukraine. Relatedly, the panel also talked about what Russia and in particular other adversaries of ours were learning about a potential conflict with us. The panel as well discussed how non-aligned countries, for example those in Central Asia, or those within the BRICS construct, were reacting to perceptions of continued American and western indecisiveness. The future of global nuclear proliferation was also considered, given Russia’s repeated attempts at nuclear blackmail via threats of nuclear weapons use. And the panel also emphatically addressed why support for Ukrainian victory was in U.S. and western core strategic interests. Related to this last point, the panel also touched on what implications would follow from a Russian victory in Ukraine, from an emboldened Putin on NATO’s doorstep, to Europe under even more increased strain. In this case the strain of not being able to properly defend itself, and at the same time a strain from managing even greater flows of refugees fleeing such an outcome. I greatly appreciated the opportunity from The Cipher Brief to moderate this important and very sobering discussion. Many thanks to Suzanne Kelly Brad Christian and the entire Cipher Brief team for putting together an incredible conference, and giving me the opportunity to drive this conversation.