The Unicus Investor

The "Irresponsible" Investor published The "Chips" War. -- You don't need the "dip." -- Are we prepared when #China invades #Taiwan? No, the war is not about a "unified" China. It is more strategic than that. If you have not yet signed up, you can now. https://lnkd.in/ejaRmdgX #Ukraine #Russia #semiconductor #China #Taiwan #economy #Apple #TSM

🚩ALLY is trapped, and it is a ticking time bomb. The management needs to be more transparent about its delinquent vintage loans. There is more going on with the floor plans that ALLY is not sharing. Our insights/analysis/source updates here 👇  https://lnkd.in/e3aQGZn2

🚩 CarMax's Asset-Backed Securities indenture weakens: "The lack of any significant equity in their vehicles may make it more likely that those obligors will default in their payment obligations if their personal financial conditions change. Defaults during these earlier years are likely to result in losses because the proceeds of repossession of the related financed vehicle are less likely to pay the full amount of interest and principal owed on the related receivable. ..." 👇 https://lnkd.in/gfsu5xqM

🚨 Auto Asset Back Securities Weakens ... 🚩The main market risks of auto loan and lease ABS are credit rating changes and liquidity. Most of the auto ABS issued were subprime. Here is the issue....👇 https://lnkd.in/er_SH9Xz

🔴 "We are basically not writing up any more ROs [repair orders]. Some have been handwritten but talk around the shop is we will be closing soon." - A well known publicly traded dealership. We spoke with numerous sources in the automotive sector, and this is what they had to say about the CDK mess and how it would impact the dealership's bottom line. https://lnkd.in/e6tiFCbS

🚨 There is an old saying on Wall Street that bad certainty is better than uncertainty. https://lnkd.in/eaNXDPrm

🚨 Most of the dealership's CEOs are delusional. Higher delinquencies, higher floor plans, higher inventory, and higher incentives.. what could go wrong? https://lnkd.in/ePNijC-P

🚨🚩ALLY and Stellantis: A Match Made in Hell. Spiking delinquency, repo, and floor plan rates - with inventories that refuse to move. "At the end of the day you’ve got to make a decision-- what do you pay for? Do you pay to feed your family, do you pay to put a roof over your head or do you pay for your automobile?" - A Repo Company in the East Coast https://lnkd.in/eT78wfBa

🚨 Higher Auto Loan Delinquencies and Spiking Repossessions are serious concerns. The impact of pandemic-period auto industry trends will be with lenders and borrowers for some time—thanks to a cascade of factors: increasing numbers of defaults on higher balance loans, an increase in repossessions in the wake of those defaults, and higher losses on those loans due to the difference between COVID-level auto prices and today’s lower levels. Many loans are “underwater” in relation to current values. https://lnkd.in/e3VPfdK8

🚨 The Market Capitulates Again: The Federal Reserve screwed-up BIG and it reflects in the latest #FOMC minutes The Fed went from 4 cuts to no cuts in 2024. The witches brew of high rates, high inflation, and more unemployment to come at a time when 78% of live paycheck to paycheck is disconcerting. https://lnkd.in/eQScZHMJ