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Tropical Depression 18 will spread rain to the eastern Gulf Coast starting Wednesday as it remains well west of Florida. While TD18 is expected to enter the Gulf as a hurricane, it should weaken thereafter, so significant U.S. wind, surge, and tornado impacts are unlikely. Monday afternoon impacts forecast here:

In continental U.S. landfall terms, November is the quietest (and final) month of the hurricane season. However, in classic 2024 style, far be it from anything to not agitate and inflame our last nerve, especially the Tropics. A disturbance in the southern Caribbean will more likely than not become a tropical depression by early next week, and has a chance of pushing into the southern Gulf of Mexico in the second half of next week. While I remain bearish on the chances of damaging U.S. impacts down the road with this system, they also cannot yet be ruled out. Friday afternoon thoughts here:

If you're texting STOP to quit hurricane season, I'm right there with you. This year was the first time since 2005 that Florida recorded three hurricane landfalls, two of which were Category 3 or above. Helene and Milton were both unusual storms with few historical precedents to anchor expectations. Understandably, you have questions, and answering tough but fair reader questions about Helene and Milton is the focus of this year's Stump the Tiger. I've also got my thoughts on the potential for any additional landfall threats to the U.S. in the next couple weeks in today's column:

This week's hurricane column gives the people what they want: license to let your $449 animatronic yard ghouls go wild without worrying about a hurricane threat. I'm discussing two active tropical disturbances, neither of which poses any threat to the continental United States, plus taking a look at how cold fronts are cooling off the Gulf. However, at longer range, hurricane season is not done, and we'll have to keep an eye on the October 30 through November 10 timeframe for a possible final burst of tropical activity. More here:

Starting now, WeatherTiger’s Hurricane Milton landfall liveblog will be updated with a new post every 30 minutes between now and the aftermath of landfall. New posts will go up shortly after the hours and half-hours. Expect updates every 10-15 minutes or so during landfall and special posts for breaking developments as they occur. Back around 2:30p to start rattling through current conditions and the threats ahead. Keep watching the skies.

Category 4 Hurricane Milton's expected path and intensity has again not changed much overnight. Milton will make landfall between Tampa Bay and Englewood tonight, with a massive surge impact to west-central and Southwest Florida, plus widespread coastal and inland wind/flooding impacts for central and north-central Florida. Morning briefing for supporters at the link, live video going up starting at 1:30 p.m. followed by a liveblog continuing through landfall.

[Tuesday, 2:30 p.m.] Milton remains on a collision course with west-central Florida, with landfall as a major hurricane expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Milton will bring catastrophic surge damage to a broad swath of west-central and Southwest Florida, potentially including Tampa Bay, as well as damaging coastal and inland winds and flooding rains to east-central and north-central Florida. If you want to know what to generally expect for your location in Milton, the answer is in today's newsletter at the link below, which has a full impacts forecast region-by-region for Florida.

What has happened today with #HurricaneMilton is almost beyond belief. #Milton has strengthened like no Gulf hurricane has in history. Its transformation into a Category 5 further sharpens an existential threat to #Tampa Bay in particular and Southwest and west-central Florida more broadly. Full Monday PM forecast discussion at the link:

[Sunday afternoon] Hurricane Milton is strengthening, and there is high confidence that destructive surge is coming to Southwest Florida and potentially west-central Florida on Wednesday. Widespread wind and rain impacts are also expected in Northeast, Central, and South Florida midweek. WeatherTiger's latest at the link:

[Saturday PM] A quick and unscheduled Saturday update to bring you up to speed on today’s developments in the Gulf of Mexico, as the disturbance I’ve been monitoring all week has escalated quickly, becoming Tropical Storm Milton this afternoon. The initial NHC advisory package issued at 11 a.m. Saturday takes TS Milton generally east for the next couple of days, brings it to hurricane strength by Monday, and then has it transit Central Florida on Wednesday as a strong Category 2, accelerating east-northeast. While some aspects of the forecast remain unchanged since yesterday, for Central and South Florida things have changed for the worse. This is true everywhere south of the Big Bend, but especially in the areas of the west-central and Southwest Florida coast already hammered by Helene’s surge. Coastal flooding will be destructive along and south of Milton’s eventual track, and Milton’s windfield may also be quite large and strong on Wednesday as it interacts with the mid-latitude jet stream. I hate that this is happening so, so much, but apparently, it is. Everyone in the Florida peninsula should start getting ready for a dangerous midweek hurricane landfall. Back tomorrow with a deeper dive on Milton’s threats.