World Steel Dynamics

WSD is launching the Free Trial for our USA Steel Dynamics Service on March 4th. The free trial includes: Bi-Monthly Forecasting and Analysis Reports; Bi-Weekly Industry News; and Bi-Monthly steel product pricing. To register for your free trial, https://lnkd.in/ezXaHYd8

Current situation. December was a weak month for steel-consuming industries in the EU, with activity falling by 1.6% m/m and 5.4% y/y: • Automotive. Output fell in January by 5.5 y/y, for the third month in a row. New orders in Germany were down by 2.9% y/y in December, after a surge of 35% in December.  Neutral y/y dynamics are expected for 2025. • Machinery. Activity in the machinery and equipment sectors in the EU extended its decline by 7.3% y/y in December.  New order dynamics remain negative. We don’t expect any demand improvement until May. • Construction. Cement output in December was 3.9% y/y lower, potentially signaling weak demand for steel.  However, new starts and construction orders continued their improvement in December-January. Demand outlook: • We expect steel demand to remain at relatively stable levels in Q1 compared to Q4 and 1.7% lower y/y. • Some demand improvement could be expected during March-June, the “peak season,” based on some improved market sentiment indicators. For Q2, we expect -0.3% y/y; with 0.1% growth y/y for Q3. This is likely insufficient to meaningfully impact the steel market. • Construction could be the main demand driver, in part due to reduced interest rates.  However, the prolonged period of weak orders in this sector will be a deterrent.   Gain full access to our Forecast Reports and Industry News and sign up for a free three-month trial today ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dgyRwRST   Source:  WSD EU Steel Dynamics Service WSD’s EU Steel Dynamics is a one stop-shop for critical European market trends and outlook for the coming six quarters (forecasted monthly for 1 quarter followed by quarterly forecasts for 5 quarters).

HRC offers have cooled slightly from €660-680 EXW Northwest Europe to €650-660 after the announcement of updated safeguard rules. Bottom line. We expect modest price upside in Q2 to €640-660: • WSD expects a 1.4Mt decline in flat-rolled imports in, or 25% y/y, as a result of the safeguards review. On a Q/Qbasis, flat-rolled imports could be down only 10% in Q2, or 0.5Mt. Provisional AD duties against HRC imports may only have a moderate impact as a number of countries essentially retained their ability to supply. • The rapid appreciation of the Euro (USD/EUR) from 1.04 to 1.09 effectively reduced EU raw material & energy costs by 5%. If HRC prices reach €640, steelmakers' margins can expand to €190-200 per tonne of HRC, the highest since Q2 2022. • Flat-rolled supply will be reduced in Q2 as a result of idled BFs at ArcelorMittal and potential force-majeure at Salzgitter. If the Salzgitter shutdown is prolonged, flat-rolled capacity utilization at all operating mills could increase to 80% - peak level since October-2021, potentially leading to near-term price increases to €660-680. Average flat-rolled capacity utilization in Q2 2017-2019 was ~85% with gross margins at ~€170 per ton of HRC. • By Q3 supply should be recovering. Flat-rolled capacity utilization at operating facilities could fall back to ~65-67%making prices above €640/t unsustainable. Combined with the potential for cheaper raw materials, prices appear bound to soften come Q3.   Gain full access to our Forecast Reports and Industry News and sign up for a free three month trial today ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dgyRwRST   Source: WSD EU Steel Dynamics Service WSD’s EU Steel Dynamics is a one stop-shop for critical European market trends and outlook for the coming six quarters (forecasted monthly for 1 quarter followed by quarterly forecasts for 5 quarters).   #eusteelforecast #eusteelmarket #eusteelmarketoutlook #eusteeldemand #eusteelpriceforecase #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

The revised parameters of the steel safeguard in Europe turned out to be softer than the market expected as some countries retained the ability to supply along with the looming possibility of new “cheap” imports from Southeast Asia and Algeria.  Key changes: ➢ Reduced HRC quotas (1A): Turkish – by 67Kt, Indian – by 70Kt, other countries by 68Kt. Total HRC 1A quota was reduced by 12% q/q. ➢ Caps on "Other Countries" Quotas: for HRC 1A caps was reduced from 15% to 13%, introduced caps for CRC – 13%, HDGC 4A – 20%, HDGC 4B – 25%, plate – 20%. ➢ Elimination of unused quota rollovers on the next quarter: for HRC, CRC, HDGC 4A, plate and wire rod. • Q1 flat-rolled imports could fall 9% y/y mainly due to 35-40% lower HRC imports amid introduction of 15% caps on other countries quotas for HRC. Import of HRC could accelerate in March form Turkiye, Southeast Asia and Algeria. • Q2 imports could go down as much as 1.7Mt y/y and 0.7Mt q/q.   On the flip side, we assume that increased price spreads could stimulate imports with reduced supplies from some countries now limited by the new rules leading to substitution from other countries. Ultimately, we expect a decrease in flats imports in Q2 compared to the same period last year of ~1.4Mt or 25%. ➢ On a Q/Q basis, flat-rolled imports could be down only 10% or 0.5Mt in Q2. While certainly a positive for the market, this may already be “priced in.”   Gain full access to our Forecast Reports and Industry News and sign up for a free three-month trial today ➡️ https://lnkd.in/dgyRwRST   Source:  WSD EU Steel Dynamics Service WSD’s EU Steel Dynamics is a one stop-shop for critical European market trends and outlook for the coming six quarters (forecasted monthly for 1 quarter followed by quarterly forecasts for 5 quarters).   #eusteelforecast #eusteelmarket #eusteelmarketoutlook #eusteeldemand #eusteelpriceforecase #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

North American Stainless & Special Alloys Conference: Registration Now Open Register today for the 2025 North American Stainless Steel and Specialty Alloys conference.  Brought to you by SMR and World Steel Dynamics. Conference dates:           November 5 – 7, 2025 Venue:                             Westin, Nashville, TN Join over 350 senior level executives from the Stainless Steel and Specialty Alloys value chain to discuss the current state of the global and North American stainless & special alloys industry and all relevant issues that will shape the business in 2025 and beyond. For more information or to register, https://lnkd.in/eYFxvMz3 #stainlesssteelmarket #stainlesssteelmarketoutlook #stainlesssteelconference #smr #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

World Steel Dynamics recently published a series of questions and answers to President Trump’s newly announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.   WSD will share the questions, answers and WSD viewpoint over the next few days. This is the last question and answer in our series, hope you enjoyed them.   Question: Will the USA’s trading partners retaliate because of the USA’s new steel and aluminum tariffs and, in the process, impose restraints on their country’s receipts of an array of USA manufactured and agricultural products?    Answer: “Some already have, more likely will.” That being said, the current “mood” among USA trading partners appears to be one seeking to avoid and/or minimize confrontation, perhaps seeking to appease the Trump administration as much as possible at first to avoid an all-out trade war and, should that fail, accept some form of tariffs without retaliation that could lead to further escalation. For sure, exporters of selected USA goods will be adversely impacted if they can’t find new international markets at the same or higher price for their products (such as those announced by the EU on US motorcycles, whiskey and other products). Will confrontation lead to conciliation?      Source: WSD Reports and Analysis Service   Register today to receive WSD’s all the questions and answer and our analysis ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA   #steeltariffs #trumpsteeltariffs #steelprice #tariffs #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

CME HRC Futures Fall Amid Changing Trade Policy CME HRC Futures for March through June declined on Thursday amid breakneck changes in trade policy. The forward curve for HRC remains in contango through April; however, March prices declined $7/ton to $919/ton, April prices declined $4/ton to $961, May prices declined $11/ton to $934, and June prices declined $5/ton to $905/ton.   WSD Take: WSD remains of the opinion that steel pricing will likely not slow in the coming weeks. With scrap settlements expected to rise $30-50/ton and broad global tariffs on steel products expected to go into effect March 12th, WSD does not foresee the momentum slowing in the immediate term. At the moment, uncertainty is the greatest factor driving the market. For the time being, both buyers and sellers are operating on limited and changing policy signals. As a result, pricing has effectively untethered itself from fundamental factors. The possibility of spot prices surpassing $1,000 ton in the coming weeks seems likely. The biggest question mark will be whether the large spread between the domestic and global markets will invite import orders into the U.S. in the coming months. Perhaps an even greater concern, in WSD’s opinion, is the impact of policy uncertainty on steel demand. It increasingly feels like key investment decisions are being sidelined as decision-makers mull the policy landscape – whether it be tariffs, government efficiency, or Federal Reserve activity. In WSD’s opinion, tariffs could prove to be inflationary, which could ultimately put the White House at odds with the Federal Reserve. Chairman Powell has been steadfast in his mandate to return inflation to 2.0% levels; therefore, even if the economy slows in coming months, it may not be a given that the Fed cuts rates further if inflation remains stubbornly high. While most of the steel supply chain expressed excitement regarding the Trump administration’s positive impact on the economy and the steel industry in Headwall Partners’ executive survey last week, the economic mood has become somewhat more uncertain. If the barrage of policy actions during Trump’s first 100 days proves to be demand destructive, prices could quickly retreat by $100s within months of reaching its peak later this spring. Source: WSD’s USA Steel Dynamics Service Sign up today for a free three-month trial to stay up to date on USA steel market trends, forecasts and Industry News, https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA #usasteelprice #hrsspotprice #usasteeldemand #usasteeldynamics #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

World Steel Dynamics recently published a series of questions and answers to President Trump’s newly announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.   WSD will share the questions, answers and WSD viewpoint over the next few days. Check back on March 10th for our last question and answer.   Question: Will the steel tariffs damage USA manufacturing industry?    Answer: The answer is “probably yes on a selective basis, even granted the return of exceptions to the tariffs.” The higher the price of steel in the United States versus that elsewhere, the greater the loss of international competitiveness for USA manufacturers of steel-intensive products including pipe, automobiles, machinery and a host of other items. Distributors and manufacturers of industrial products, for sure, employ many times more workers than those employed in the steel and aluminum industries.     • The USA’s indirect steel trade deficit in 2023 – i.e. when assessing the weight of the steel in steel-containing goods – was estimated by the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) at 40.7 million net tons, consisting of imports of 64.8 million tons and exports of 24.1 million tons. Net imports in 2023 consisted of 21.1 million tons in automobiles, 24.5 million tons in machinery, 6.0 million tons in construction, 4.0 million tons in appliances and 9.2 million tons in other categories. The indirect steel trade by region consisted of 21 million tons for Asia, 9.7 million tons for the European union, 10.3 million tons for NA, 1.8 million tons for Other Europe and 2.0 million tons for all other regions. By way of comparison, in 2022, indirect imports were 61.7 million tons and exports 23.2 million tons, for a net indirect steel trade deficit of 2.2 million tons.       What about job losses due to the higher price of steel based on increased indirect steel imports? These could be sizable. However, assuming a lessened manufacturing goods trade deficit, one must also take into account the increase of USA workers producing manufactured goods.      Source: WSD Reports and Analysis Service   Register today to receive WSD’s all the questions and answer and our analysis ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eV7viGKA   #steeltariffs #trumpsteeltariffs #steelprice #tariffs #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

WSD Viewpoint:  Following the “Golden Profit” Age of 2021-2022, it has become undoubtedly evident that the industry has since entered a period of distressed financial performance WSD has dubbed the “Great Shake-out Age.”    Whilst a typical “Shake-out” – defined as a period where the price of hot-rolled band on the World Export market is at or below the marginal cost of production for the median-cost producer – lasts a few weeks or months, this condition has been in effect for the better part of the last calendar year, give or take. The current hot-rolled band (HRB) export price is barely above the mills’ marginal cost.    The price, at $465-480 per tonne, FOB the port of export, compares to the median mill’s marginal cost of $465 per tonne in January 2025, excluding the cost to deliver the steel to the port of export. Given the dynamics at play in international steel markets, WSD is increasingly concerned that this condition could persist for some time, perhaps well into 2025.    WSD’s “best case scenario” forecast in the months ahead assumes the price will peak in March-April at $500-520 per tonne – although, there’s also a possibility, perhaps one in three, that it declines instead if China’s peak-season steel demand disappoints.   Source: WSD Reports and Industry Analysis   For more information or to request a sample report ➡️ https://lnkd.in/edwxMVPQ   #steelfinancialperformace #globalsteelprice #globalsteeloutlook #steelmarketoutlook #wsd #worldsteeldynamics

European HRC Prices Hold Steady Amid Trade Uncertainty In recent weeks HRC prices have risen by €10-20/t; since then, prices have remained stable at €600-605/t EXW in Southern Europe and €600-625/t in Northern Europe. Import offers are currently at €550-560/t CIF Italy. Distributors report improved market sentiment, though regulatory uncertainty regarding trade restrictions is limiting momentum. One WSD source reports: “Psychologically, the market is ready for a price move, but buyers are cautious ahead of the EU safeguard decision. Everyone is waiting for quota announcements before making commitments.”  Market sentiment is expected to improve once the results of the safeguard review are released. Traders also anticipate that the review may introduce procedural improvements and close regulatory loopholes, affecting import flows. Meanwhile, some domestic mills have withdrawn lower price offers, signaling preparations for a potential price increase – reportedly by at least €20/t. Currently, buyers are unable to book domestic HRC below €600/t.   WSD Take. We maintain our forecast for HRC prices to rise to €620-640/t in Q2. A projected decline in imports during the quarter is expected to increase flat-rolled capacity utilization to ~72-74%, a level that has historically supported a €140-150/t mill margin. We also suspect that an inventory buildup in Q1 – given the same supply in January as in the previous year and estimated ~3-4% lower steel consumption – will allow customers to resist the mills’ higher offer prices. As such, we expect any price increase to be modest and gradual. A psychology-driven price surge to €640-650+/t is also possible, potentially further supported by higher raw materials prices. However, significantly higher prices may be unsustainable given low-capacity utilization at present, as higher margins could incentivize additional domestic supply and imports. Sign up for a free trial to see why WSD expects prices could rise to €640 by the end of Q1. https://lnkd.in/dgyRwRST Source: WSD EU Steel Dynamics Service WSD’s EU Steel Dynamics is a one stop-shop for critical European market trends and outlook for the coming six quarters (forecasted monthly for 1 quarter followed by quarterly forecasts for 5 quarters). #eusteelforecast #eusteelmarket #eusteelmarketoutlook #eusteeldemand #eusteelpriceforecase #wsd #worldsteeldynamics