宇野タイヨウウエーンデービス’s Post

The most prominent events of the armed conflict in Sudan during seven months

I am quoted in an excellent Raseef22 رصيفــ22 article among various regional analysts, US and Israeli government officials, and other voices regarding the relative silence concerning the Israeli strikes on #Hizbullah and what that means for regional security. There is a wide mix of agendas, real and perceived, including the potential impact on US #elections2024 outcome, #Iran's concerns about enabling #Trump and reopening #sanctions, #Israel and Washington's use of #escalation to deescalate and the interest in returning evacuated Israelis to the North, pushing #Hizbullah back and away from the borders, limiting the expansion of hostilities in the region, or even pressuring #Hizbullah as a way of brining about #hostage (not #sausage!) release and #ceasefire in #Gaza. For my own part, I explain why US diplomatic pressure and engagement with #Lebanon government has failed, and that is due to the fact that #Hizbullah is taking its direction from #Iran, running a parallel policy to the official state, and has no interest in de-escalation as it will be perceived as an admission of a #Military defeat. Worth reading the whole piece. #Levant #middleeast #arabworld #Syria #Gaza #Hamas #terrorism #Iran #thegulf #counterterrorism #extremism #counterextremism #military #security #defense #hostages #Humanrights #humanrightsviolations #foreignpolicy #foreignaffairs #diplomacy #geopolitics #missiles #missiledefense #africa #Egypt #Qatar #GCC

🔍 The Dilemma of the Autonomous Administration in Northeast Syria Amid the Turkish Rapprochement with Assad: Analysis and Assessment Turkey's rapprochement with the Assad regime, driven by regional and international shifts, poses significant threats to the Autonomous Administration in Northeast Syria. This rapprochement is influenced by several strategic motives, including Turkey's desire to legalize its military presence in Syria, reduce the burden of Syrian refugees, and prevent the Autonomous Administration from gaining legitimacy in future Syrian governance. 🔴 On the international front, Turkey aims to strengthen its relations with Russia, especially as it anticipates the potential return of Trump to power in the U.S., which could lead to a reevaluation of American military presence in Syria. 🔴 Regionally, Turkey is concerned about the ongoing conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza, fearing that they could escalate into a broader regional war that might impact Syria. 🔻 The Autonomous Administration is now faced with three possible scenarios: making concessions to the Assad regime, opening up to Turkey under U.S. mediation, or holding firm to its current positions while relying on continued American support. Each option carries significant risks and challenges, particularly as the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement progresses. 🚨 What are the possible outcomes? And how will this rapprochement affect the future of Syria❓❗️ You can find more details and potential strategies in the full analysis. 👇 https://lnkd.in/dCjngPXh #Syria #AutonomousAdministration #Turkey #PoliticalAnalysis #MiddleEast #InternationalRelations

I am quoted among various analysts in ASHARQ AL AWSAT LTD Newspaper regarding whether #Israel is trying to sabotage the #mediation process and, by criticizing or attacking #Egypt, #Qatar, and even the US over various issues, looking to delay the talks or to force the participating diplomats out. I went against the opinion of the rest of the contributors in addressing the fact that #Israel is not interested in randomly disrupted the talks. Furthermore, I argued that #Israel wants to keep #Egypt and #Washington in, but wants Qatar out. I explained that some overzealous right-wing voices and anti-#Egypt interests are pressuring the government into public disagreements with #Egypt. I also added that #Israel has concerns about #Qatar's sponsorship of #Hamas but that US is heaping praise on Doha and will continue backing its participation. I added that it's in #Israel's interests to keep the US involved, despite any differences, because US is the least biased against #Israel out of all potential options and simultaneously has the most influence. I underscored that despite rhetoric, #Egypt and #Qatar are unlikely to withdraw because #mediation affords them a significant role in regional #diplomacy and gives them influence. #Gaza #middleeast #africa #Northafrica #arabworld #thegulf #GCC #terrorism #counterterrorism #extremism #counterextremism #tunnels #military #security #defense #Biden #foreignpolicy #foreignaffairs #diplomacy #geopolitics #strategy

I was quoted in Erem Business | إرم بزنس - إرم بزنس article by ghenwa kenan concerning the election of #Iran's "reformist" president Masoud Pezeshkian and what that means for #Iran's #economy and the direction of its #foreignpolicy. I explained that Pezeshkian's #authority is limited to economic issues, and many of them are unchangeable due to the impossibility of separating them from #Iran's foreign policy and top level regime #corruption. I added that Pezeshkian is vowing to improve relations with the #GCC, and especially #SaudiArabia, but also with #UAE, #Europe and the US, with an outlook towards lifting #sanctions and improving #trade and #business ties. I also added that with respect to domestic campaign promises, such as #taxrelief and free medical #healthcare for the indigent, Pezeshkian is facing the obstacles due to the budget holes related to #Iran's #terrorism and foreign adventurism, and the future depends heavily on the ability to restore #Iran's #legitimacy with the world. Moreover, #sanctionsrelief will not necessarily fix the situation due to #Iran's competing priorities and that even in the best case scenario, only families with ties to the regime would benefit. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran is facing obstacles including misappropriation and mismanagement of funding, discrimination of the peripheral and #minority communities, endemic corruption, social issues, and much more. #middleeast #arabworld #thegulf #KSA #UnitedArabEmirates #EuropeanUnion #military #security #defense #healthcare #terrorism #counterterrorism #extremism #counterextremism #foreignaffairs #JCPA #nuclear #nucleardeal #nuclearenergy #nuclearpower #nuclearweapons #militias #proxies #diplomacy #geopolitics

I am quoted in Sky News Arabia سكاي نيوز عربية alongside various regional experts in a spirited discussion about whether or not the relationship between #Iran and #Hamas is that of partnership, cooperation, and coordination or more of agency and subordination. Despite competing claims over the reasons for the October 7 attack, both sides are opportunistic in using each other towards the common goal of destroying #Israel. However, as with a general pattern of its proxies, while #Hamas may have started out as a useful ally to #Iran, its dependence on Tehran has shifted the balance of power in Tehran's favor. #terrorism #counterterrorism #extremism #counterextremism #middleeast #arabworld #thegulf #GCC #Fatah #Qatar #Lebanon #Levant #Soleimani #military #security #defense #Proxies #militias #foreignpolicy #foreignaffairs #genocide #diplomacy #geopolitics #strategy

The World African War in DRC? The Democratic Republic of Congo embodies the challenges Africa faces in the context of global power struggles. Since 1996, the eastern part of the country has been embroiled in conflicts that have led to the deaths of nearly six million people. The violence began with the First Congo War (1996-1997), following the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, where approximately one million Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed. In the aftermath, nearly two million Hutu refugees fled to eastern DRC, including some extremists who formed armed militias. Tensions escalated with the intervention of Tutsi militias and foreign powers, leading some to refer to it as Africa's First World War. Eleven African countries were involved in the First and Second Congo Wars, which eventually became part of the 2013 peace agreement aimed at ending this major regional conflict.

UPDATE – Recent reports quoted a political advisor to Iraq's prime minister as saying that his government received a request from an unnamed Syrian opposition party to facilitate a Syrian-Syrian dialogue. But the widely circulated remarks on social media have not been backed up by an official press release while the opposition umbrella group known as the "National Syrian Coalition" denied on Friday (13 September 2024) requesting any mediation from Baghdad to sponsor a dialogue with Damascus. The news about a possible Iraqi mediation role to facilitate a Syrian-Syrian dialogue comes after similar recurring reports about an Iraqi diplomatic effort to mend relations between Damascus and Ankara. And on many previous occasions, Baghdad officially expressed willingness to help resolve the years-old conflict in neighboring Syria. Read more, and listen to experts' comments, in my 2012 News and Analysis Program, published and aired on Radio Free Europe's former Arabic Service – Radio Free Iraq. #Iraq #Syria #Syrianopposition #mediation  https://lnkd.in/esbzW-35

Was quoted in Sky News Arabia سكاي نيوز عربية along with Scott Morgan and others regarding the issue of #immigration, #bordersecurity, and Donald Trump's chances in the #Elections2024. I explained that while the #immigration system is broken and needs serious debate and changes, it is not a pivotal issue in the #elections - but border security is. I explained the legitimate concerns - #security, crime, #humanitarian, and #economy-related, and why #Biden is perceived weak on these points. I explained how #Biden's unwillingness to confront the growing threat is playing into Trump's hands. The article pointed out how Trump is fearmongering by paraphrasing #Hitler's comments about "poisoning the waters" - but because there are real threats, his extremist comments are disregarded. #trump #politics #terrorism #counterterrorism #extremism #counterextremism #lawandorder #societyandculture #humanrights #humanrightsviolations #Humanitariancrisis #Humanitarianaid #humanitarianassistance #economy #crime #Republicans #democrats #GOP #Mexico #foreignpolicy #foreignaffairs #diplomacy #geopolitics

I interviewed with @AlHal.net for an absolute MUST READ article for the emerging Russian "smart power" in #Syria, specifically the use of the Russian language in the educational system and educational opportunities in #Russia for young Syrians as a way to build relations beyond #defense cooperation or #economic projects. I go into detail discussing the #Kremlin's reversion to the old Soviet model of using language to ensure compliance in its spheres of influence, to build loyalty, and to project influence. I also talk about the advantages of that approach in challenging #Russia's regional competitors such as #Iran and the United States, and ensuring continuity of Russian presence despite the obstacles presented by the war in #Ukraine, including the prospects of #Israel-#Ukraine cooperation in #Syria. Finally, I talk about how #China and #Iran are providing their own models of similar outreach in #Iraq, #SaudiArabia, and possibly in the future, other parts of the #MiddleEast. US government and #media are missing out in failing to cover and highlight this important and worrisome development. #smartpower #arabworld #thegulf #GCC #KSA #Levant #Baath #socialism #education #societyandculture #CivilWar #informationwarfare #ideologicalwarfare #psyops #militias #Proxies #Africa #spheresofinfluence #ideologyexport #military #security #defense #maritimesecurity #eastmed #easternmediterranean #grainexports #economy #energy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #reconstruction #RussiaUkraine #RussiaUkraineWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #RussiaUkraineCrisis #RussiaInvadedUkraine #RussianAggression #RussianInvasion #AxisofResistance #foreignpolicy #foreignaffairs #diplomacy #geopolitics