abrdn’s Post

Following our Zurich Insurance Macroeconomic and Markets Outlook publication last week, some summarised thoughts from me for those short on time. As usual, please share your views and thoughts

Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2024 As we look ahead to 2024, there is no shortage of expert forecasts and predictions for the world’s economy, markets, geopolitics and technology to track in this new year. Source: Visual Capitalist #visualcapitalist #2024predictions #economy

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economic and financial outlook for the next two years? I'm curious to hear different perspectives on this complex topic. Some questions to consider: 🔶 What economic indicators are you watching most closely? 🔶 How do you see monetary policy evolving globally? 🔶 What potential innovations or market shifts could impact various industries? 🔶 How might changing consumer behaviours affect different sectors? 🔶 What regional economic trends do you find most significant? Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has increasingly influenced economic policy. MMT principles are affecting and going to continue to affect the fiscal and monetary decisions in the coming years. What might be the implications for various sectors of the economy? Does the world end up in a debt spiral and print into oblivion? The knock-on impact being hyperinflation. What's shaping your outlook? Are there any often-overlooked factors that deserve more attention? Its s slightly different type of post, but one which very much will impact my industry. I'm interested in hearing diverse viewpoints and learning from others' expertise and observations. What's your take? #economicoutlook #financialmarkets #globalinvestments #inflation #fedratescut #bulls #bears

As investors continue to debate the timing and potential depth of interst rate cuts, please take a moment to read our thoughts on key investment trends and positioning for 2024 👇

2024 is looking interesting. Waves of elections to come. Have politicians juiced the economy sufficiently to see them through them. Find out more and where our CIO believes the opportunities are in our year ahead preview.

Well worth a read for our outlook on interest rates, Asia and 2024 elections.

In the latest mid-year outlook entitled, "An Uneasy Calm", our Chief Market Strategist and #Economist Guy Miller and the Market Strategy and #Macroeconomics team cover key trends and other critical topics that are on the radar for the rest of 2024. Watch the full video below and read the full publication here 🔗➡️https://lnkd.in/e53p3cqx The first half of 2024 is seeing a good performance from the financial markets, despite the profound, lingering impact of COVID on the global economy. Here are key trends worth exploring as we look ahead to the rest of the year: 🔵 Growth dynamic 🔵 Inflation 🔵 Interest rates 🔵 Where financial markets are expected to go from here

Welcome to the first edition of our new annual outlook document. In a world of evolving opportunities and dynamic challenges, this publication offers a forward-looking perspective, exploring the global economic landscape and discussing the macroeconomic shifts that shape our vision for the future. Discover more here: https://bit.ly/3u0gvUQ #TheBrief

Exciting discussion, Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani and Lawrence H. Summers. Thank you for sharing! I remember the two opposing views in Q3 2022 between #Summers and #Waller / Fed on the cooling of a tight labor market. #Summers describes a flatter Beveridge curve where the u-rate is important. Tightening policies will have a considerable impact on unemployment - the Fed's dual mandate is important, which should focus on inflation and the u-rate. A continued hawkish stance to bring inflation down will lead to a rise in the u-rate, with the soft landing in serious doubt and a recession on the horizon. Summers continues this vision by estimating a 55% probability that the US will enter a recession next year, and especially over the next 12 months. Curious to see what will happen, as even Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management assumes a 30-40% probability, closer to Waller/Fed's second point of view. The #Waller / Fed view follows a steep Beveridge curve involving a low u-rate with the Fed acting on its dual mandate, i.e. price stability and employment, becomes one-sided with the focus solely on inflation. As the effects of tightening policies (higher rates) aimed at curbing inflation lead to a fall in JOLTS, the inflation rate should only be moderately affected. A balanced labor market allows for a soft landing with moderate labor demand, while avoiding mass layoffs and recession, and reducing inflation. The current market volatility, which is inflating term premia, seems to support the second viewpoint, as the opportunity for rates and macro trades seems excellent to me, with lower front-end rates and positive vega steepening trades, and bets on the shape of the curve. #Macro #GlobalMacro #Economy #Investing

On the macroeconomic front, we observe positive signals - for market sentiment, or animal spirit if you like - in 4Q 2023. However, the cost of capital remains uncomfortably high (5,23% as of 11/2023) and expected growth prospects materially low (especially for Europe), whereas uncertainty persists. Abruptly changing yields within 2023 reflects changing macro-narratives – without the take on future macro development - current underlying reality of financial markets is the one of greater uncertainty and volatility. Volatility has eventually its economic price. With moving interest rates and changing macro-narratives it is important to keep in mind that the often mentioned, delayed, negative effect of rising interest rates on economic activity also implies the logic of delayed positive impact of falling interest rates on economic activity. Therefore, continuation of volatile macro-environment and the growth prospects pose one of the main risks for 2024. #economy #finance #growthprospects #macroenvironment