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The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 4.1%, and Non-Farm Payrolls were weaker than anticipated at +114K compared to forecasts of +175K. The disappointing labor data, combined with weaker manufacturing data and the highest jobless claim reading in 11 months, triggered a sharp decline in US yields. Ten-year US Treasury yields fell by 11 basis points (bps) to 3.85%, and the policy-sensitive two-year rate declined 18 bps to 3.96%. Weaker US data raised concerns about whether the Federal Reserve should have already initiated rate cuts. (Markets are pricing in four 25 bps cuts in 2024)

5 Jan 2024............Market Updates A strong set of US labour data saw the DXY and the US10Y spiked while the S&P tanked last night. The ADP registered 164,000 (consensus 115,000) while the Jobless Claims registered 202,000 (consensus 216,000). The labour market is very strong and that means that the Fed might need to hold rates longer. On top of that, the Services PMI data from China, the EU, the UK and the US were all better than consensus, showing economic growth globally. The market finally realised that they had "overkill" on their end 2023 SHORT dollar positions (euphoric over Powell's 3 rate cuts statements) and scrambled to BUY back their SHORT Dollars. Technically, it had fulfilled this week's move as we await tonight's final US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment data releases. There is still one more push to make a marginal high in the DXY before it starts to correct a bit into next week. Let's see. #familyoffices #privatebanking

Basic Economic Update 📈📉 On Friday, as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 💼, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) added 272,000 jobs in May, much higher than the market expectation of +182,000 as well as previous month’s reading of +165,000. 😲 The unemployment rate crept up to 4.0% from 3.9% a month ago. Meanwhile, the wage inflation, as measured by the percentage change in average hourly earnings, rebounded to +0.4% on a monthly basis from +0.2% previously and +0.3% expected. All in all, the hotter-than-expected labour market data caught investors by surprise. Market players started to taper and delay the expectation of the Fed’s rate cut. As a result, the 2-year and 10-year UST yields both added 15bps to 4.87% and 4.43% respectively. 🔥📈 #ConnectwithBPAM #FedRateCuts #USWageInflation #NFP #EconomicData #LaborMarket #USTYields

The USA just reported estimates beating nonfarm payrolls. Unemployment is at a record low. Powell keeps saying the Fed will cut only if inflation ‘sustains ‘ at 2% (still above 3%) yet markets keep expecting rate cuts. Wish or view? Has the 30-year structural down cycle in interest rates turned up? Please see the US 10-year yield chart below (source: Bloomberg)   #thesinecurve #everythingisacycle

𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐩 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐞𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐨𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐒𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐮𝐭 The US economy added 114K jobs in July, the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data showed. The reading was less than the 176K expected, demonstrating that higher rates are starting to heavily impact the labour market..⚠️ 🚩More importantly, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% which is the 4th consecutive monthly increase. The data comes above the 4.1%, sending a red flag to the Fed that tighter monetary policy may result in significant rise in unemployment..📈 As a result, futures markets increased bets of more rate cuts this year and even greater chances of a cut in September. Between four and five reductions are now priced in for this year, compared to three or four before the report..✂️ Nevertheless, equity and bond markets are down on the news. Is bad news no longer good news? #unemployment #nfp #data #investing #interestrates #cuts #markets #federalreserve #economy Char via BLS

Today, traders/investors await the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls to be published by the United States Bureau of labor Statistics at 3:30 PM GMT+3. Analysts have forecasted a rise by 200K in March compared to 275K witnessed in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 3.9%, and hourly wage at 0.3% from 0.1% in February. Today's NFP data will be very critical since the U.S. employment data will establish trend for the dollar index (DXY) and aid the Fed in deciding whether to cut interest rates.

The first high-impact data release of the year from the US, Non-Farm Payrolls, came out this morning and has significantly beaten expectations, with 216,000 jobs added in December compared to the anticipated 168,000. Even though inflation has come down significantly, the American labor market data will be a continue to be a key indicator for traders and investors alike in predicting when the Federal Reserve will cut rates. #currency #treasury #usdcad

The monthly NFP report will be released tomorrow, Friday, January 5th. Will December figures turn as expected?⁠ 🔼 Previous: 199K⁠ 🔼 Consensus: 168K⁠ Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 199,000 in November, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed October's increase of 150,000 and exceeded the market expectation of 180,000. ⁠ The US labor market report will likely show that the economy created 180K jobs last month, up from a job addition of 150K reported in October. The Unemployment Rate is set to remain unchanged at 3.9%.⁠ The US labor market data is crucial to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate outlook for 2024, and thus, it significantly impacts the US Dollar (USD) valuation. ⁠ ⁠ https://lnkd.in/ej-Jrw8E #nfp #nonfarmpayrolls #trading #nfpreport ⁠ This is not an investment advice. Past performance doesn't indicate future results. Trading is risky.

The US labour market showed signs of slowing with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 142,000 in August, below the expected 165,000. 💰 Meanwhile, over in China, the latest inflation data has only raised fears of an economic slowdown - prompting some previously bullish investors to reconsider their stance on Chinese equities. Economic uncertainty remains high in the US and China, with investors closely monitoring upcoming forecasts to guide the market direction. Read our latest commentary on the recent industry insights. See the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/eiYbMkea #MarketUpdate #FinancialMarkets #GlobalEconomies #Equity #Equities

"Lower than expected growth in July payrolls (114K) and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% raised market concerns in early August that the Fed might be behind on cutting interest rates." Read more from our September Market Update: #marketupdate #financialnews