Aerotek’s Post

Jobs on deck. JOLTS caused rates to run earlier this week. Will today's report take some of that back? 2s and 10s are now only 30bps inverted. I don't think many expected to see the 10 year climb to shrink the gap. Most expected the 2 year to fall. Things to watch for? Previous revisions. They've clawed back gains on several reports in a row now. If we have a surprise upside number hold on to your hats on the 10 year. The headline carries a negative tone...but we keep getting surprised... "The report will probably show employers added 173,000 workers to payrolls in September, though figures due a month from now could show hiring plummeted to 100,000 in October, Bloomberg economists Anna Wong, Stuart Paul and Eliza Winger wrote Thursday in a preview of the release" "The September payrolls report is backward looking. Since the September survey week, financial conditions have tightened sharply and auto strikes have escalated," Wong, Paul and Winger said." "Wong, Paul and Winger also expect the labor force participation rate to remain unchanged at 62.8%, the unemployment rate to tick down to 3.7%, and average hourly earnings to post another 0.2% increase" "Their predictions for the September report are largely in line with median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of outside forecasters." #jobs #economy https://lnkd.in/gSWMNVsx

U.S. employers added a surprisingly-strong number of jobs in January, indicating that--yes--the labor market is still hot. Payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs last month, far more than the 185,000 that economists expected, according to the report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the December report was revised up from 216,000 jobs to 333,000. It's a picture of a labor market with a lot of muscle left, but there's some other signs to take into account. Read more here at Inc. Magazine: #jobsreport #labormarket #hiring https://lnkd.in/eCKZxXvA

The Employment Picture Clouds a Bit The Federal Reserve and every market analyst have been waiting for the job market to cool down a bit so that one of the last bastions of inflation could fall. The June employment picture was a bit cloudier for the first time this year. Though the headline job data again was just about 200,000, which is nothing to sneeze at -- the underlying numbers were a bit weaker. For example, the previous two months of gains were revised downward by just over 100,000. Even one number which showed strength could be interpreted as a weakness. The average hours worked per week was higher, indicating the demand continues. However, often employers expand overtime when they have the need and don’t want to hire additional personnel. Or perhaps they can’t find the workers. Wage inflation was still on the strong side, so this supports the latter theory. These “cloudier” numbers made the July report released last Friday even more interesting. How did we do? The economy added 187,000 jobs in July, a decent number – but decidedly less than the average for the first half of the year. The previous two months of gains were revised down by approximately 50,000, making the overall numbers even lower. The headline unemployment rate moved down one tick to 3.5%. The all-important wage inflation numbers came in a bit high at 0.4% for the month and 4.4% annually. All-in-all, this was seen as a softer report, though wage growth will be concerning to the Fed. With no Fed meeting this month, there will be another jobs report before they meet in September.

The labor market heated up in January with payrolls increasing by 353,000 jobs, a 52% increase from what economists were expecting according to Inc. Although some experts predict a "rebalancing" national economy, we are anticipating a robust labor market. Read the article here: https://buff.ly/3uBiQpt #MarketUpdate #Workforce #SouthernCalifornia #Recruiting #Hiring #LaborMarket

January jobs report: US economy adds 353,000 jobs, blowing past Wall Street expectations The US labor market started 2024 on a high note. The US economy created 353,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in January according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday, more than the 185,000 expected by economists. January's job gains were also higher than December's revised figures, which showed there were 333,000 jobs created last month. Initial data out last month showed there were 216,0000 additions to the workforce in the final month of 2023. #jobs2024 #economy #jobsreport #unemployment # https://lnkd.in/gQ-xtEjN

After surprising to the upside throughout all of 2023, the national labor market has apparently decided to...supply to the upside again in 2024. When we put together our 2024 outlook, we anticipated about 1.5 million net new jobs would be added to payrolls in 2024, which was about half of the 2023 total. After the 303,000 jobs added in March (following strong gains in January and February), it looks like we may have undersold the health of the labor market. Sometimes, it feels ok to get your forecasts wrong. During the first three months of this year, employers have added 829,000 jobs in the economy, or 55 percent of the total jobs we were expecting for the full year. In fact, the jobs added in the first quarter of 2024 were only 10 percent off the total added one year earlier. While the headline number is surprisingly strong, I think there are some interesting takeaways when we dig a little deeper into the numbers. Nearly 240,000 of the 829,000 jobs added this year have been in healthcare industries, and almost 1 million healthcare positions have been added in the past 12 months. This accounts for about one-third of the total employment growth year over year (and about 25 percent of the YTD total). Additionally, the public sector has been in expansion mode, with more than 190,000 government jobs added year to date. Government (federal, state, and local) accounts for about 15 percent of total employment in the country, but has represented 23 percent of new jobs created YTD. But wait, there's more. The bulk of the government hiring has been state and local (+162,000 jobs YTD) and a significant share of that total (more than 60,000 jobs) has been education. Good news for teachers (and for students), but likely not something that we should expect to continue to outperform over the longer-term. The WSJ article below describes a lot of these trends (as well as the gains in leisure & hospitality) as "high-touch" employment, aka work that can't be done remotely. Outside of these "high-touch" industries, the labor market looks a lot closer to our original (softer) forecasts. The professional and business services sector has gotten off to a decent start, but is still up just 0.7 percent year over year. Conditions are still pretty soft in the other two office-using sectors, with financial employment contracting slightly in the first quarter, and information posting minimal gains (and a YOY loss). So, there's a lot to interpret from today's employment data. A labor market that's stronger than expected, but only expanding in a handful of industries. A private sector that is expanding more slowly than the public sector (a trend that isn't usually sustainable). And population-serving jobs that are often performed in person (construction is also one of these that is rising) growing faster than the labor market as whole.

September Jobs Report Shows U.S. Added 336,000 to Payrolls, almost twice what was expected Friday’s jobs report showed that hiring accelerated sharply in September, as employers added 336,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimated employers added 170,000 jobs in September. That would round out a summer of slower job growth than in the first half of the year. Such an advance also would be in line with the average monthly pace of job growth in the three years before the pandemic. Some forecasters expect stronger job gains. Employers’ demand for labor has cooled this year. More workers have entered the labor force. Fewer employees are quitting. These shifts have helped ease some of the labor shortages that followed after the pandemic hit in 2020. “It’s not quite as easy for job seekers to immediately find a new position, and employers are also better able to attract and retain workers,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica.  Job growth is now concentrated in a handful of industries, such as healthcare and social assistance. That contrasts with 2022, when hiring was strong at restaurants, hotels and other service businesses, buoyed by surging demand for in-person experiences as Covid-19 faded.

The March 2024 jobs report blew past expectations, pointing to an exceptionally strong and resilient U.S. labor market that is showing no signs of cooling down. The headline numbers were impressive: 303,000 new nonfarm payrolls created, far exceeding projections of 200,000. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.8% as labor force participation rose. A few other key highlights: Job gains were widespread across sectors like healthcare, government, leisure/hospitality, construction and retail trade. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% over the month and 4.1% year-over-year, indicating persistent upward wage pressures. The robust 498,000 gain in household employment highlights soaring labor demand. From my perspective as an executive search consultant, this blazing jobs report confirms what we've been seeing on the frontlines: An extremely tight talent market where skilled workers are in high demand and short supply. The implications are clear - businesses will need to continue to double down on competitive compensation packages and strong company cultures to retain top employees. #jobsreport #executivesearch Y Scouts TRANSEARCH