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#marketreflection (13.11.24) Treasury yields were mixed, with those on the shorter end of the curve falling, after data showed no major surprises on inflation in the world's largest economy, coming in largely in line with forecasts and suggesting the Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rates as expected next month. Yields on the long end of the curve, however, led by the benchmark 10 year note, rose on the back of heavy corporate bond issues on Wednesday, market participants said. That followed around $30 billion in offerings on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year notes fell 5/32, yielding 4.4512%. 30 year bonds dropped 1-1/32 to yield 4.6407%. Two-year notes rose 4/32 to yield 4.2752%. The dollar advanced to one-year high against major currencies powered by so-called Trump trades and after U.S. inflation for October came in as expected, suggesting the Reserve will continue lowering interest rates. The greenback has risen to its highest level since April 16, buoyed by Donald Trump's victory in last week's U.S. presidential election, which sparked expectations of potentially inflationary tariffs and other measures by his incoming administration. The dollar index rose 0.46% to 106.51. Meanwhile, bitcoin surged past the $90,000 level for the first time, powered by euphoria from Trump's election victory and expectations that his administration will be beneficial to cryptocurrencies. The euro was down 0.55% at $1.0565. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar gained 0.6% to 155.52 yen. US Market Focus 14.11.24 3-Month Bill Settlement 6-Month Bill Settlement Adriana Kugler Speaks  7:00 AM ET Jobless Claims  8:30 AM ET PPI-Final Demand  8:30 AM ET Thomas Barkin Speaks  9:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report  10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report  11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET 10-Yr TIPS Announcement  11:00 AM ET 20-Yr Bond Announcement  11:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction  11:30 AM ET 8-Week Bill Auction  11:30 AM ET Jerome Powell Speaks  3:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet  4:30 PM ET John Williams Speaks  4:45 PM ET #affinmoneybrokers

#marketreflection (09.12.24) Treasury yields rose as traders waited on key inflation data due this week to see whether stubbornly high price pressures could derail expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. “If we see a convincing uptick that the Fed isn't able to continue using that bumpy excuse on, then that will call into question whether or not the Fed can deliver a rate cut next week,” said Vail Hartman, U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York. Hartman said a solid to high 0.4% gain in core consumer prices could raise doubts over a cut next week, but rate expectations will also depend on producer prices. Benchmark 10-year notes fell 11/32, yielding 4.1954%. Two-year notes were 2/32 down, with a yield of 4.1224%. 30-year bonds slipped 28/32, to yield 4.3830%. The dollar was up slightly in skittish trading as investors awaited U.S. inflation data later this week, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied after China pledged an "appropriately loose" monetary policy next year. "This is a market right now that wanted to hear good signals about global growth, and so it's found receptive ears," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. "We've heard promises from China before, but, once again, they're getting the benefit of the doubt." "There's no incentive to short the dollar against any particular currency," he said. The dollar index was up 0.13% at 106.19. The Australian dollar gained 0.75% to $0.6437, and the kiwi rose 0.62% to $0.5863. US Market Focus 10.12.24 4-Week Bill Settlement 8-Week Bill Settlement 4-Month Bill Settlement NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  6:00 AM ET Productivity and Costs  8:30 AM ET Treasury Buyback Announcement  11:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET 8-Week Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET 4-Month Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET 3-Yr Note Auction  1:00 PM ET Treasury Buyback Results  2:00 PM ET #affinmoneybrokers

USDCAD Comment USDCAD stayed within the expected range yesterday but did trade toward the topside and it climbed to a 1-week high at 1.4415 in the overnight session. This could be the calm before the storm, as US President Trump was mostly quiet yesterday after a very busy first week in office, the economic calendar was light yesterday, and is again today, and markets are looking ahead to the event risk of tomorrow’s US FOMC meeting and the Bank of Canada meeting.  Expectations have the FOMC holding rates steady, and the BoC trimming by 25-basis points. Markets will be mostly keen to hear the Press events after the meetings and how or if they shift expectations of future policy moves. Currently markets slightly favor the Fed cutting twice in 2025, with the first coming at the May or June meeting and the second cut by September. There is a contingent that expect just a single cut from the Fed this year and a group that expects more than two cuts, so we’ll see if the Fed says anything to strengthen either camp. For the BoC, markets seem to think that 3 cuts will occur in 2025, and likely quite quickly as the BoC has mostly won the inflation battle and instead is trying to prevent the economy from slipping into recession and likely keeping an eye on US trade policy as they weight the risk and impact of US tariffs on Canadian exports. I also must mention that with Trump back in office, the days of the government not meddling (or trying to meddle) with monetary policy are behind us. Trump has already demanded that the Fed cut rates because he’s going to bring down oil OPEC oil prices. Fortunately Powell seems to have the will to stand up to Trump, and has already made it clear that we will not step down if Trump asks him to and that US law means that Trump cannot fire him, but if Trump ramps up rhetoric Powell could be subject to the type of public badgering and threats that other defiant officials have faced in recent years, former NIA head Dr. Fauci a prime example of this. Yesterday’s lone data release was US New Home Sales from December which comfortable topped the expected read of 669K, posting at 698K and up from November’s read of 664K. Today we get US Durable Goods Orders, the Housing Price Index and Consumer Confidence data, all of this is second tier and unlikely to have much impact on USDCAD. Technical outlook We remain stuck in a familiar range and bias is neutral. The base case remains for USDCAD to eventually extend to the topside, with my target being 1.4650. It would take a break of support at 1.4260 to shift bias to the downside, though most would see limited losses beyond this level in this scenario, with support at 1.4200/1.4220 expected to be the floor, and an eventual shift back to the topside thereafter. For today support lines are at 1.4337, 1.4302 and 1.4269 while resistance starts at 1.4405, followed by 1.4438 and 1.4473. I’ll call a range of 1.4340-1.4415 for the session. 

Week of September 16 th to 20th, 2024 The EUR/USD is showing signs of strength. The pair recorded significant gains at the end of last week, driven by increasing speculation about the upcoming Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate decision. The dollar weakened due to rising expectations that the FED might cut rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting. The shift in market sentiment has been substantial, with the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut now standing at 45%, compared to just 20% a week ago. This anticipation led to a drop in U.S. Treasury yields, further affecting the value of the dollar. Additionally, U.S. import prices fell more than expected in August, declining by 0.3%, while export prices decreased by 0.7%. On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key rate last week. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the ECB operates free of political influence, responding to Italy's demands for further rate cuts. The next FED meeting, scheduled to begin on Tuesday and conclude on Wednesday with a rate decision and subsequent comments, is the main focus of the markets this week. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, which could significantly impact the USD's dynamics with other currencies. The Bank of England (BOE) and institutional economists believe that inflation will gradually rise until the end of 2024, and this week's data is expected to confirm this trend. The BOE is likely to acknowledge these inflationary dynamics on Thursday, keeping interest rates unchanged at 5.0% and stating that it will continue to monitor the data when deciding on future rate cuts. Last week, the markets showed that the Pound remains highly sensitive to global risk sentiment, which may ultimately prove more important than domestic events. If we look back at the large drop in the GBP/EUR pair in early August, we can see that the devaluation was mainly a result of the sharp decline in global stocks, highlighting the Pound's sensitivity to investor sentiment.

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2020, lowering the benchmark by 50 basis points. This move comes as inflation stabilises near the Fed’s 2% target and attention shifts to the labour market. How does this impact the foreign exchange markets? Globally, interest rates are a key driver of currency markets. When a central bank lowers rates, returns on investments denominated in that currency typically fall, reducing demand from foreign investors. This often leads to currency depreciation. Lower rates can also boost economic activity by making borrowing cheaper, which increases demand for imports and affects trade balances, further influencing exchange rates. As interest rate policies shift, global currency markets react with volatility and adjustments. Work with a broker who understands what moves the markets. Work with Orbis. 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗼𝗻 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗲: +44 (0) 203 918 5620 𝗗𝘂𝗯𝗮𝗶 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗲: +971 54 287 0072 #HelpingYouGrow #ForeignExchange #FXMarkets #InterestRates

#marketreflection (12.06.24) Treasury yields fell after an inflation reading came in softer than expected, raising hopes for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming months, and the central bank kept interest rates at current levels in its latest policy statement. "The headline number was flat, but that had a lot of uncertainty around it. The core number, which is more signal than noise, was below the consensus," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. "After three months of veering off-track, the disinflation bus is back on the road to 2%.” Benchmark 10 -year notes rose 19/32 to yield 4.3277%. Two-year notes gained 4/32, yielding 4.7645%. 30-year bonds were up 27/32, with a yield of 4.4837%. The dollar dropped after data showed that consumer prices in May rose less than economists expected, but pared losses after updated interest rate projections by Federal Reserve officials showed an expectation for only one rate cut this year. The dollar index was last down 0.46% at 104.74. The euro was last up 0.61% at $1.0804. The greenback weakened 0.13% against the Japanese yen to 156.86 yen. US Market Focus  » 3-Month Bill Settlement 6-Month Bill Settlement 52-Week Bill Settlement Jobless Claims  8:30 AM ET PPI-Final Demand  8:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report  10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET 5-Yr TIPS Announcement  11:00 AM ET 20-Yr Bond Announcement  11:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction  11:30 AM ET 8-Week Bill Auction  11:30 AM ET John Williams Speaks  12:00 PM ET 30-Yr Bond Auction  1:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet  4:30 PM ET #affinmoneybrokers

📈Market update 02/07/2024 The AUD/USD is trading at 0.6653. The Aussie asset gains against the USD but faces sharp selling pressure amid firm speculation that the Fed will start lowering interest rates from the September meeting. US bond yields began the week higher as traders evaluated the increasing chances of a Trump presidency following the weekend’s presidential debate. 📈Market update 28/06/2024 The yield on the US 10-year bond rose by 8 basis points to 4.48%. This rise in US bond yields is drawing significant attention, boosting the USD DXY while most other currencies declined. Overnight, the US ISM Manufacturing index dropped by 0.2 points to 48.5 in June. Production and employment moved into the contraction zone, while new orders improved from May but remained weak overall. Inventories decreased, prices increased but at a slower rate, and both imports and exports declined. On today’s economic calendar, we have the RBA minutes, followed by the European CPI. The US JOLTS data will be out at midnight. Additionally, expect further commentary from global policymakers attending the ECB’s annual central banking forum in Sintra. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gBSZ8Dtm #AUDUSD #USD #FedRates #USbondyields #ISMindex #RBA #ECB #JOLTSdata #SintraForum

The Bond Trader report (treasuries) 15/05/2024   Treasury market US inflation later in the day will save or sink the bond market.   Bund: the ZEW survey (assessing the current economic situation) rose to -72.3, the largest increase in more than a year. France inflation posted a 2.2%, lower than previous 2.3%, and the Bank of France said it expects the economy to grow. Good news is bad for bonds, as it delays the need of lowering rates, and the Bund’s yield went from 2.48% to 2.55%, but expectations of a contained inflation in the US made the Bund recover in the early morning and yield come back to 2.49% at the moment. While the bond market fails to give any signal, the forex traders seem to have a more convinced view and buy the EUR, probably expecting that the FED will be more aggressive in cutting, as and when, and send the EUR to 1.0830.  UST: not much to say with traders bracing for the key CPI report later today, which could dictate the path of the FED’s monetary policy. The PPI (price pressure to producers) accelerated to 2.2%, but this was already priced-in. In the meantime, Powell pointed yest that the economy stands still and that he is confident inflation will fall. Nice comments take USTs yields and, subsequently, the USD down. Emergings  Indonesia records USD 3.6 billion trade surplus, as the country imports less: coal shipments fell 19% annually. As the currency remains stable, it is expected that the central bank (Bank of Indonesia) keeps rates at 6.25% in May, after delivering a surprise hike in April to support the rupiah, which fell to 4-years low.  China: Biden accuses China of “cheating” and imposes new tariffs with an impact around USD 18 billion in annual imports. The central bank keeps the one-year rate at 2.5% as expected and seems they wait for the FED to cut before easing the monetary policy. Also, it is commented that the government will ignore US fears and continue supporting the local economy, pointing that it could buy millions of unsold homes from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks.  Argentina central bank cut the benchmark rate from 50% to 40% as it is confident inflation is cooling, after it fell from 25% (monthly!) in Dec, to 9%. Good luck

#marketreflection (30.09.24) U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the central bank will take a gradual approach in cutting interest rates, noting that the monetary policy is not on any "preset course." Powell's comments raised the odds for the smaller 25 basis-point (bp) cut at the November meeting to 62% and about 38% for 50 bps, according to LSEG estimates. It was a toss-up before Powell's remarks. For 2024, the rate futures has priced in about 73 bps in cuts, down from roughly 80 bps on Friday. Benchmark 10-year notes fell 11/32, yielding 3.7904%. Two-year notes dropped 5/32 to yield 3.6452%. 30-year bonds were down 17/32 to yield 4.1281%. The dollar rose after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell adopted a more hawkish tone on the economy, leading traders to pare bets that the U.S. central bank will cut rates by 50 basis points again at its next meeting. “Maybe the market is beginning to worry that they're serious about doing 25 (basis point cuts), because there was a sense that that was just for show that they were going to front load, and here he's talking about upside risks certainly in a way he didn't talk at the FOMC.” The dollar index was last up 0.39% at 100.77. The euro fell 0.27% to $1.1133. Against the Japanese yen, the greenback gained 1.04% to 143.67 yen. US Market Focus 01.10.24 4-Week Bill Settlement 8-Week Bill Settlement 4-Month Bill Settlement PMI Manufacturing Final  9:45 AM ET ISM Manufacturing Index  10:00 AM ET Construction Spending  10:00 AM ET JOLTS  10:00 AM ET Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)  11:00 AM ET Raphael Bostic Speaks  11:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET 8-Week Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET 4-Month Bill Announcement  11:00 AM ET Raphael Bostic Speaks  11:10 AM ET 52-Week Bill Auction  11:30 AM ET A Conversation with the Federal Reserve Presidents  6:15 PM ET #affinmoneybrokers

Fed to cut or not to cut - https://lnkd.in/eFR5UYqy - Last week the US Dollar claimed the title of strongest currency of the week as the markets priced in rate cut rationale began to dissipate. This was also coupled with a strong risk on week as equities continued their stella run. The post Fed to cut or not to cut first appeared on trademakers. - alternative asset management,alternatives,Cromwell FX,foreign exchange,Forex,FX,investing,investments,Market View