Akash Verma’s Post

Understanding democratic decline in the United States https://lnkd.in/gcQdNP6M The effort by President Trump to subvert the 2020 election is the most obvious, but far from the only, example of democratic backsliding in the United States. State legislatures under GOP control have moved to reduce voters’ access to the ballot and to politicize election administration. President Trump also engaged in unprecedented efforts to undermine the independent civil service. The Supreme Court has increased its authority over election adjudication, narrowed the scope of voting rights protections, and seems inclined to support some politicization of executive branch administration. Hyperpartisanship and gridlock leave Congress poorly positioned to provide checks on executive and judicial power.

FRIDAY FEELINGS. Voters should resist viewing this contest through the politics-as-usual lens of past elections. This November is not about dueling personalities, middle-of-the-road policy differences, or as some might see it, an 81-year-old man being the lesser of two evils compared with a 78-year-old man. It’s nothing short of a referendum on our 248-year democracy, and a choice between a trustworthy public servant who upholds American values and a serial liar who wants to push the country into authoritarianism. Leaders of the Democratic Party have to stop the self-defeating discussion about Biden’s fitness and decide whether to replace him or unify behind him. And Americans must start hearing more about how the records, positions and character of Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and any of the prominent Democrats being floated as possible replacements make them all unquestionably superior to Trump. #democracymatters

Have you been following voter and election law developments this election cycle? Here's my synopsis, with colleague Vance Wittie, of the Supreme Court's recent decision on the racial gerrymandering challenge to South Carolina's congressional redistricting. The Court reversed a three-judge panel's finding that the South Carolina legislature engaged in racial gerrymandering when it redrew congressional districts. The takeaway: When politics and race are highly correlated, a challenge on constitutional grounds must "disentangle" race from politics and overcome a strong presumption that the legislature acted in good faith. This will almost always require the challenger to propose an alternative map that would still achieve the drafter's political or other goals.

What are the prospects for another non-recognition of the outcome of the November polls? According to The Economist, American elections are known for creating conflict even without Donald Trump on the ballot. The U.S. is the only major presidential democracy where the candidate who wins the most votes doesn’t necessarily gain power. The two-month gap between voting and election certification in Congress is the longest in the world, which invites legal challenges and adds complexity. This makes patience and trust vital in U.S. elections. Unfortunately, America ranks last among the G7 in trust in the judiciary and dead last in the belief that its elections are honest. With just 54 days remaining until the 2024 election, the Economist writes about three potential outcomes: 1. An Electoral College Tie (Extremely Unlikely) • Probability: Very low. In this scenario, both candidates would receive 269 Electoral College votes, sending the decision to the House of Representatives, where Trump would likely win despite Harris possibly securing the popular vote. This would follow the rules but could provoke widespread anger from Democrats. 2. A Trump Victory (Moderately Likely) • Probability: Moderate. In the event of a close Trump win, Democrats could challenge the results in key battleground states. Legal battles could escalate to the Supreme Court, where Trump-appointed justices would play a crucial role. While Democrats might view the court as biased, most would likely accept the outcome. 3. A Harris Victory (Most Likely) • Probability: Most likely. If Harris wins, Trump is unlikely to concede. His campaign has already filed lawsuits in preparation to contest the results, and the “Stop the Steal” movement could intensify political division, even if the legal challenges fail. With the race so tight, this election’s outcome will likely have a profound and lasting impact on the trust Americans have in their democratic system. https://lnkd.in/g3ikT4Hx Patrick Merloe Beata Martin-Rozumilowicz #Election2024 #Leadership #Trust #Democracy #PoliticalIntegrity #TheEconomist

“Unlike the constitutions of many other advanced democracies, the U.S. Constitution contains no affirmative right to vote.” A Constitutional amendment for the right to vote is a good idea. First let’s decide which people should enjoy the rights guaranteed under the Constitution. Like most people, I believe in following the Golden Rule. However, some people profit from ignoring the Golden Rule. These “people” reap billions from producing bombs and other weapons that under the Golden Rule we would prefer not to be used against us. I don’t think corporations are people, but some politicians do. Certainly a lot of money has been spent to convince citizens that corporations are good hometown people. Corporations are good tools, but we need to keep them in the shed where they belong. The members of a corporate board and a CEO can have free speech. A corporation should not. Unless a corporation gets shareholders to vote unanimously on a political stance they should stay out of our elections. Corporations can also make distributions to the shareholders for personal campaign contributions which is far simpler than holding a shareholder vote.

Will the US Constitution crumble when Trump is allowed to run for President? Timothy Snyder has no doubts when it comes to Trump's rights to run for the White House: he calls him an insurrectionist who is forbidden to run for President by the Constitution. He may well be right, but I would not be surprised at all when judges find a way to clear the way for Trump because they fear what would happen in the streets when they decide otherwise. Of course, I will keep close track of all these developments and the implications for financial markets for our clients at ECR Research and ICC Consultants BV. A couple of excerpts from Snyder's Substack column: "Americans who should know better are choosing fear over the Constitution, finding excuses to ignore what it says There will be thousands and thousands of contested elections in the United States in November 2024. With respect to only one of them are people saying that legal qualifications for office do not matter. Claiming that voters (and electoral systems) can disregard the Constitution is senseless, because people become citizens and thus voters in ways defined by the Constitution. No Constitution, no citizens, no voters. Trump tried to overthrow the Constitution; when we say “let the voters decide,” we suggest that the Constitution deserved it. In ignoring Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment, we refuse, as it were, to hear the Constitution's side of the story. When we are too fearful of the Constitution to allow the Constitution to address our fears, fear builds to become the main mode of politics. We then legitimate mob rule because we imagine some future mob. We obey a tyrant in advance." https://lnkd.in/erhT8Dax #donaldtrump #trump2024 #uselections #uspolitics #politicalrisk

The drama surrounding #redistricting in #newyorkstate continues and will escalate. Today (February 26, 2024), the state senate and assembly both voted to reject the maps approved (9-1) earlier this year by the state's Independent Redistricting Commission. The state #legislature, which is controlled by the #Democratic party, will now draw their own #Congressional maps, which almost certainly will ensure a legal challenge. Additionally, this development threatens to delay the state's primaries that are currently scheduled for June 25, 2024. While it is a winding and long road, stay tuned because the stakes are high. The #Republican party now controls the U.S. #Congress 219-213 with three vacancies. If the Democratic majority in the New York statehouse can thread the needle and create a durable map that provides advantages to Democratic candidates, the majority of the #houseofrepresentatives very well could be decided in New York in the #2024elections. The Hill has a nice article below and I have also included articles from the The Washington Post, Washington Examiner, and New York Post in the comments. #politics #elections #publicpolicy https://lnkd.in/e6MzqWE7

If Ms Harris wins, Mr Trump will not be so gracious. In that third scenario, the complexity of America’s voting system collides with the maga conspiracy machine. The Republican National Committee has pre-emptively filed more than 100 election lawsuits in the states to create a paper trail in preparation to fight the result... To be clear, America will still see a peaceful transfer of power in January 2025. Neither side will be able to install a president who lost by the rules. But that is a minimal definition of democratic success. In the broader sense, elections are meant to generate the consent of the people to be governed, even by a president for whom they did not vote. That requires voters to believe that the process is fair and can be trusted, so that their side has a decent shot in four years. Each time people feel that an election lacks legitimacy, the day draws closer when one side or the other breaks the system rather than accept the result. https://lnkd.in/giJznZNb

Great piece Jared Alper! Indeed, #Independents are Rising! I'm not a closet R or D, and I reject the terrible choices offered by our binary duopoly. The self-serving political industry loves to hate on us, or act like we don't exist. Here is a short sample of some of the names states (or the industry) give to independent #voters: Declined to state (DTS), No party affiliation (NPA), No party preference (NPP), Nonpartisan, Unaffiliated and "double haters." Over 27 MIL Independent Voters cannot even vote in their own PUBLIC, taxpayer-funded closed primary #elections. Where's the moral outrage around this blatant #taxationwithoutrepresentation? No outrage because the politics industry has poisoned far too many. City by City, State by State, we will continue our mission to #LetAllVotersVote / #LetAllVeteransVote ... #LetUsVote!

The University of Washington Center for an Informed Public election rumor research team has published a new rapid research blog post examining rumors questioning the legality and legitimacy of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. Key takeaways: 1. In the immediate aftermath of President Biden announcing he would not seek reelection, rumors spread quickly trying to make sense of the rules, procedures, and prospects for selecting a nominee.  2. Complicated and nuanced state-level election processes led to confusion and rumoring as people tried to make sense of what would happen following President Biden’s announcement to drop his campaign for re-election. Internal party concerns about nominating a replacement create the opportunity for members of opposing parties and/or foreign adversaries to take advantage of these critiques. 3. Voices on the left and the right initially dubbed Biden’s stepping down and the presumptive nomination of Harris as a “coup” by party elites and the donor class, in some cases verging on conspiratorial language. 4. False rumors about Vice President Harris’s citizenship status spread through “anchor baby” tropes aiming to delegitimize her candidacy. The tactic of using racial and xenophobic biases against a presidential candidate to question their citizenship and legitimacy to run is not new. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gB9xnqac