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📊 January Market Commentary Update 📢   Check out the latest insights from Laurium Capital – Investment Advisor for the Thornbridge Global Opportunities Fund 🌐 Click here to see our list of funds: [ https://lnkd.in/gpztchUA ] 📈 Global Equity Markets: Markets kicked off 2024 pursuing many of the same themes and factors that characterised 2023. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East dominated news headlines and created a tense political backdrop, but investors also had to focus on inflation, US monetary policy and the likely path of interest rates in considering asset allocation and risk appetite. 💼 Interest Rates: Fed Governor Powell did nothing to quell market expectations that the US rate cycle was over, with a dovish pivot in his December 13th speech leading to a sharp shift in rate cut expectations for 2024 and a nine-week run of consecutive gains for the S&P500, the longest winning run since 2004. ⛽️ Geopolitics: Geopolitics remained firmly in the spotlight, as strikes from Houthi rebels on commercial shipping in the Red Sea continued to heighten risks for supply chains; upside risks to inflation (already evidenced by soaring freight costs), and potential escalation in the response from Western powers. Oil prices understandably rose, with Brent Crude up +6.1%. Conversely, the iron ore benchmark price lost over 5%.   Economic news emerging from China remained weak and volatile and contributed to a poor month for emerging market asset prices, the MSCI EM Index losing more than 4.6%. Developed markets fared better, gaining more than 1% which left the MSCI ACWI Index with a slight positive +0.5% return for January. Want to find out more? Click on the link to our News & Insights page 📊📰 [ https://lnkd.in/ea7JX9uJ ] #MarketCommentary #FinanceNews #InvestmentInsights #Investmentmanagement #IndustryNews #Inflation #InterestRates #MarketRecap

In this week's Weekly Wrap: The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index slips, US bond yields are on the rise, all eyes are on the upcoming earning season and the Dollar remains near five-month highs. Read more here: https://bit.ly/4aYGb3T #WeeklyWrap #MarketUpdate #CitadelGlobal

The US economy is en route towards a soft landing, with the Federal Reserve set to deliver the first non-recessionary interest rate cut on 18 September. In our upcoming Global Markets Research webinar, Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets, accompanied by our moderator Matt Fennessy, delves into why it pays to own commodities, why there are no signs of an imminent US recession in an era where inflation is nearing target levels, and where markets are pricing in a soft landing. Register here: https://lnkd.in/gn-7tRzr For more information of #MUFGGlobalMarkets insights and other reports, contact your local MUFG representative or visit https://lnkd.in/gZNYWPJP. #globalmarkets

** Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index finally capitulates: no longer forecasting recession **   The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index continued its decline in January, dropping -0.4% month-over-month (MoM). This report marked its 23rd consecutive decline which makes it the longest such stretch since March 2009 during the end of the Global Financial Crisis. But, what caught most people’s attention today? The Conference Board no longer forecasts a recession in 2024, although they expect growth to weaken substantially to “near 0% over Q2 and Q3.” This is a start departure from the Conference Board’s messaging over the past year/year-and-a-half. The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major global economies. Many economists and investors track this measure closely. While no forecasting system is perfect, this one has a very good track record.   #investing #markets #money #earnings #SPX #sp500 #fed #federalreserve #economy #volatility #bullmarket #bearmarket #stocks #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket #interestrates #fedpolicy #moneysupply #monetarypolicy #VIX #inflation #bitcoin

Our latest #MultiAssetEssentials is out | ‘Charting 10 Sentiment Extremes in Europe'    The past week has seen a number of Eurozone bond and equity markets reach ‘stretched optimism’ territory, according to our Sentiment Barometer Indicators. Eurozone equities also look overbought near-term relative to Asia ex Japan. The parallel rise in bond and equity sentiment to elevated levels reflects the scale of favourable inflation news. But we’re skeptical of a ‘soft landing’ narrative; nominal growth is likely to fall further, pressuring margins and, ultimately, equities.   Implied volumes favour strategies that involve selling bond volume to fund the purchase of Euro Stoxx 50 puts. Equity implied volume and ERPs look low given the degree of policy/economic uncertainty. In FX, we flag sentiment & seasonal headwinds for SEK. >> ASR clients can read this report in full here: https://buff.ly/3REWsnV >> If you are not already a client and are interested in a free trial of our award-winning research, please see: https://lnkd.in/eTPw36RH   #multiasset #equities #sentiment #bonds #yields #stocks #assets #investment #macro #research

Emerging market (EM) assets have shown resilience, performing well despite geopolitical tension and economic concerns. Historically, lower US interest rates have strengthened EM regional currencies and benefited EM risk assets and bonds. With the Fed signaling rate cuts in 2024, renewed capital flows into EM are expected, highlighting the potential for a bumpy but promising ride.</div><div class="read-more"><a href="" class="more-link">Continue reading</a>https://lnkd.in/gHR_Xmiv

Galapagos Capital Monthly Our 2024 Global Macro Investment Themes January 2024 In this letter we discuss what we consider are some of the most important investment themes for global macro and its impact on emerging markets in 2024. We have identified five themes. First is the pivot of major central banks from a “higher for longer” guidance to “careful calibration”. Second is that once rate cuts begin in developed markets, it will turbo charge easing cycles in some emerging economies and trigger the normalization of yield curves broadly. We also contend that if the FED decides to begin its easing cycle early in the year, inflation risks grow into late 2024-2025. Third, the dollar will strengthen on net against many EM currencies due to lower rate differentials later in the year. Additionally, idiosyncratic factors -economic and non-economic- will induce additional currency volatility in some countries. The US presidential election will likely bring volatility to the FX market. Fourth, fiscal problems will worsen in developed markets pushing term premia higher. We briefly discuss the size of the challenge for the US. And fifth, we will have diverging opportunities in local emerging markets because of many central banks continuing or starting rate cutting cycles, while others will need to pause. We close this letter by discussing near-term developments in some of the countries we follow. We wish all our readers a successful investment year in 2024. Please see attached the full note. #emergingmarkets #globalmacro #fed #fomc #banxico #bcch #bacen #banrep #nbp #nbh #ecb #galapagoscapital #rates

The Impact of Global Events on Markets Global events significantly influence market movements, affecting asset prices and investor sentiment worldwide. Events such as geopolitical conflicts, economic crises, natural disasters, and political decisions often create market volatility, driving price fluctuations in stocks, commodities, and currencies. For instance, wars or geopolitical tensions can disrupt trade and supply chains, leading to spikes in commodity prices like oil and gold. Economic downturns or financial crises, such as the 2008 global recession, lead to widespread sell-offs as investors seek safer assets. Similarly, changes in monetary policy by central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank impact global interest rates, influencing stock and bond markets worldwide. Traders must stay informed about global developments and their potential impact. Risk management strategies, such as diversifying investments across regions and asset classes, can help minimize losses during periods of uncertainty. Using stop-loss orders and having a flexible trading plan can also mitigate risks during unpredictable market movements. By monitoring news, staying updated on economic indicators, and adapting to changes, traders can better navigate the challenges posed by global events. Preparedness and agility in responding to these influences are key to capitalizing on opportunities or protecting portfolios during volatile times. #stockmarket #trader #investments #money #globalmarket #us #china #india #business

EM equities back above the zero line for 2024. #emergingmarkets #china #equities Emerging markets are having a good month. Boosted finally by some evidence that the Chinese market may be bottoming out (MSCI China is up 9.7% in dollars so far in February), MSCI EM is now up 0.6% for the year. EM is still lagging DM (+5.2% MTD) which reflects, above all, the strength of the Japanese market (+13.7% YTD) and the ongoing, if erratic, rally in US equities (+6.5% in 2024). Many individual EMs are having good months - not just China - with gains of over 5% also in Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Philippines, Poland, Turkey, Saudi and Peru. MSCI EM is up 5.5% MTD. This EM rally is happening despite a stable US dollar and the steady repricing of the scale and pace of US interest rate cuts. I think the EM rally continues. (My call remains a rise in MSCI EM of 10% this year.) The main narrative for this year is intact in my view. The next Fed rate move is still likely to be downwards (despite some recent fears that the Fed may even have to tighten again) and my call remains three quarter point rate cuts in 2024. This should push the dollar modestly lower and pull money towards EM, allowing many EM central banks to further ease monetary policy. Meanwhile, a soft landing in the US appears on track. So, we should enjoy this rebound in EM equities and it should have further to go in 2024.

Asset Allocation Insights: Can the equity bull market continue? We anticipate global economic growth to slow but stay positive. Disinflation trends continue, supported by fiscal and monetary policies, especially with the US elections on the horizon. This creates a favourable environment for equity markets in the coming months. 📊 Asset Allocation Strategy: Overweight: U.S. and European stocks Underweight: Fixed Income and Emerging Market stocks Diversifiers: Commodities and Gold Currency Position: Long dollars 🔄 Update: We've upgraded Government bonds (1-10 years) from NEUTRAL to POSITIVE. Read the full AAI by Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA. Luc Filip, CFA Adrien Pichoud Gaël Fichan Gaël Combes https://lnkd.in/efawUShp #MarketInsights #AssetAllocation #PortfolioManagement