AlphaValue’s Post

This week’s Weekly Market Commentary discusses how the recent eight-day winning streak in the stock market has shifted the narrative from correction to comeback, with the S&P 500 challenging key resistance at 4,400. However, market breadth and 10-year Treasury yields, could impact the sustainability of the market's advance and its upside momentum.

🚀 Do you know the top stocks that have gained the most in the last 52 weeks? We researched the Nifty 100 on sharpely, the ultimate platform for all your stock data needs: 1️⃣ IRFC: The stock price has risen by over 420% in the last year. Benefiting from high railway spending, but with high valuations and decreasing mutual fund holdings, it’s a good time to sell partially and take profits. 2️⃣ REC Limited: The stock price has risen by over 205% in the last year. Despite good profit growth and a low PE ratio, a high debt-to-equity ratio makes it a good time to realize gains. 3️⃣ Trent Limited: The stock price has risen by over 204% in the last year. With strong fundamentals, healthy growth in revenue, and a great interest coverage ratio, it’s a solid pick, but high valuations remain a concern. 🔔 Follow sharpely for more stock tips and insights! #StockMarket #Investing #Finance #TopGainers #trysharpely #IRFC #RECLimited #TrentLimited #InvestmentTips #MarketAnalysis #Nifty100

#MarketsWithBS | Technical chart shows that MFSL stock is facing some resistance around Rs 1,140 level; while the short-term trend may turn cautious, the overall trend seems positive; check key levels here. Rex Cano #markets #sharemarket #stockmarket #buzzingstocks https://mybs.in/2dYrVAp

IN THE STOCK MARKETS - STAY RELAXED, NOT FLEXED, ALWAYS!  The Bulls have started to massacre the Bears once again on Dalal Street even as the Sensex soared by by a whopping 727.71 points and the Nifty rose by a staggering  206.9 points today on Wednesday 29 November 2023. That's great news for patient investors who hate the idea of flexing their Portfolios by buying more and more stocks even as the Bull run continues unabated. These smart investors know very well that the Sensex & Nifty has  to rise higher and higher to entice vulnerable and innocent retaip investors to join the party due to FOMO ( fear of missing out ) but then the music is bound to stop sooner than later due to a nice big scam, a Black Swan event like the corona / covid pandemic etc. THE PATIENT AND SMART INVESTORS HOLD ON TO THE STOCKS THEY BOUGHT SEVERAL YEARS AGO AND MAY CASH IN PROFITS BY GRADUALLY SELLING THEIR PROFITABLE STOCKS AS THE INDICES KEEP HITTING NEW PEAKS.  Let's say, an investor bought the following 2 unknown stocks several years back :  CONFIDENCE PETROLEUM  1000 SHARES @ RS.15 PER SHARE  TODAYS CLOSING PRICE : RS.101.59TOTAL PRE-TAX PROFIT : RS.86590 GANESHA ECOSPHERE  1000 SHARES @ RS.100 PER SHARE  THE DAYS CLOSING PRICE : RS.1001.35  TOTAL PRE-TAX PROFIT RS. 901350 Now, this investor is very relaxed and thinks he is very lucky that both these shares have kept rising  miraculously over the years for no apparent reason ( they don't have any MOAT or any distinctive competitive advantage.)  But at the same time this greedy investor may not sell both the shares thinking it will double up from these levels giving him JACKPOT sort of returns! Oh really! Mr.Market is not a FOOL! Mr.Market is just waiting for more fools to buy these stocks until the crooked guys decide to start offloading these stocks that they accumulated at lower levels. And then, the lower circuits start kicking in, washing away the huge notional profits mentioned above. Oooooouch!  AND HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF : RETAIL INVESTORS LOSE A LOT OF MONEY BY NOT BOOKING PROFITS PERIODICALLY AND BY BUYING HIGH & SELLING LOW! AND THIS INVESTOR KEEPS WONDERING WHO ARE THE FOOLS WHO ARE BUYING THESE STOCKS AT PRICES WHICH ARE OUT OF WHACK WITH THEIR INTRINSIC OR FAIR VALUE!  NOTE : ABOVE IS ONLY FOR EDUCATION PURPOSE & NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, HOLD OR SELL SHARES. ALWAYS CONSULT A SEBI REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR BEFORE BUYING, SELLING, HOLDING & TRADING STOCKS.

Equifax And 3 Other Stocks Have Very High Payout Ratio (VIANEWS) – Orchid Island Capital (ORC), Enterprise Products (EPD), United Bancorp (UBCP) are the highest payout ratio stocks on this list. Here’s the data we’ve collected of stocks with a high payout ratio at the moment. The payout ratio in itself isn’t a promise of a future good investment but it’s an indicator of whether […] https://lnkd.in/drE2Wbge - Read more.

L&T Finance (NSE) has recently broken out from a descending triangle pattern, as highlighted in the chart. This breakout is accompanied by a strong upward movement in price, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment. The price is currently positioned above both the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are at ₹170.53 and ₹171.20, respectively. This is often a bullish signal indicating a change in trend. Looking at the key levels, the ₹170-165 zone should be closely monitored as it coincides with the moving averages and could act as a significant support area in case of any retracement. On the resistance side, the ₹185-190 range stands out as the next major obstacle for the stock. How the price reacts in this zone will provide further insight into the stock's future direction. The RSI is currently at 60.11, indicating neutral to slightly bullish momentum. The stock still has room to move before entering overbought territory, which suggests the potential for further gains. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows a consistent upward trend, implying that buyers are accumulating shares. The recent spike in volume during the breakout adds further confirmation to the bullish sentiment. Stay tuned for more updates! 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗿: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘆, 𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹, 𝗼𝗿 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗳𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲. 𝗔𝗹𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗱. 𝗣𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗿 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗿 𝗱𝗮𝗺𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. #StockBreakout #TechnicalAnalysis #BullishSignal #StockMarket #PriceAction #LTFinance #RSIIndicator #MovingAverages #StockTrading #MarketTrends #VolumeBreakout #SupportAndResistance #TrianglePattern #OBV #Investing

Are markets overvalued? Learn about valuations! Recent HDFC securities (kudos to the team for this wonderful report) report on 'Earnings vs. Multiples' suggest that there are many stocks which have seen unprecedented returns largely due to valuations re-rating rather than any earnings upgrade. What does this mean? Platforms like Bloomberg Reuters and Refinitiv (and nowadays Trendlyne.com too) display consensus estimates of various financial data (median estimates of all brokers). Based on those earnings data, valuations are determined. Let's see how. For example, if median earnings per share (EPS) of a company is Rs. 100 for the next year (FY26) and stock price is Rs. 400, then, the forward Price-to-Earnings (PE) multiple is 4x. There are two ways in which this data is provided: 1. Financial year wise PE - which is basically FY25 PE, FY26 PE, etc. where EPS for relevant fiscal year is used in the denominator. 2. 12 month forward PE - here actual 12 months are used. Today, you will need the EPS from August 2024 to July 2025. This is calculated by taking 8 months of FY25 EPS and 4 months of FY26 EPS. That blended EPS will be used as the denominator rather than that of any fiscal year. You get these multiples for most traded stocks on a daily basis - this is due to changes in daily prices. Denominator changes (earnings upgrade or downgrade) around the result season or after some company announcement/event/news. Once you have a longer time series, one can check if the current valuation is higher or lower than its average valuation. If last year, the 12 month forward PE was 3.5x and today it is 4x, we say that the stock has re-rated (that's increase in valuation) by ~14%. If last year, it was 5x, then we will say that it has de-rated (decreased in valuation) by 20%. If such increase or decrease in valuation is due to increase or decrease in the earnings, respectively, then, such change is justifiable to an extent. For example, if stock is re-rated by 20% and earnings have been upgraded by only 2-3%, then, will that valuation re-rating justified? That's what the report talks about. Now, let's go to HDFC Securities' report. Highlights - 1. 32%, 47% and 39% stocks of Nifty 50, Nifty midcap 100 and Nifty Small cap 100 respectively have re-rated in excess of 20% in the past 6 months. On the other hand, only 2%, 4% and 9% stocks of these indices respectively have got de-rated more than 10% 2. Despite no significant upgrades in earnings of any of these indices at an aggregate level, mid and small-cap indices stocks have delivered ~25% returns (adjusted for earnings revisions) in the past six months. Stocks with earnings downgrades have seen an average re-rating of 20-40% in the last 6 months. 3. Majority of the stocks of benchmark indices have moved ahead of their fundamentals. Here's an image of top re-ratings from the report. What's your opinion? #valuation #stockmarket #india #finance #investment By the way - not an investment advice!

Buy & Sell Signals When (OVBC) Moves Investors should Listen: Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method.  This methodology [...] Look at the Charts

Have valuations become over-extended? Check out this market commentary as LPL Financial walks through several different stock valuation approaches to get a more complete picture and even make the case that they aren’t as pricey as they look.

Buy & Sell Signals When (USCI) Moves Investors should Listen: Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method.  This methodology [...] Look at the Charts