AmerEcona’s Post

What Lies Ahead for the U.S. Economy in 2024? From surprising strides to conflicting forecasts, dive into the economic rollercoaster of 2023 and peek behind the curtain at the projections shaping the new year. Explore the Fed's game-changing policies, diverse expert opinions, and global influences impacting what might be in store for the economy: https://lnkd.in/gmQnytvN #EconomicInsights #2024Projections #NavigatingUncertainty

📈 In 2023, the U.S. economy outperformed expectations with a 5.2% annualized growth in Q3, despite higher interest rates and geopolitical tensions. What does this mean for 2024? 🌐 Economists, previously predicting a recession, are now cautiously optimistic for the year ahead! 📊 #USconomy #EconomicOutlook2024 Read more below:

📈 In 2023, the U.S. economy outperformed expectations with a 5.2% annualized growth in Q3, despite higher interest rates and geopolitical tensions. What does this mean for 2024? 🌐 Economists, previously predicting a recession, are now cautiously optimistic for the year ahead! 📊 #USconomy #EconomicOutlook2024 Read more below:

The WSJ's latest quarterly survey of business and academic economists shows forecasters ratcheting up their expectations for economic growth, inflation and the level of future interest rates. The following charts show how the economy, and economic forecasts, have evolved over recent months and years. After looking at the charts, see if you can guess how economists answered two questions about the relationship between politics, the economy and Federal Reserve policy. Most economists thought that the Fed’s aggressive campaign to raise interest rates would do far more to slow the economy than it has. Growth has outperformed expectations, based on a combination of government spending, increased immigration and resilient consumer demand. Workers are feeling confident enough about their jobs to keep up their shopping habits. Now economists generally don’t think the economy will get anywhere close to a recession over the next year. Job gains have also far exceeded forecasts, possibly owing in part to an immigration-fueled increase in population. Economists still expect a slowdown to come imminently, if only because businesses have exhausted the pool of available workers. In recent years, neither economists nor investors have seriously doubted that the Fed would succeed in bringing inflation down to its 2% target. The question has been what it would take to get there. Economists, however, modestly increased their 2024 inflation forecasts, even before the latest round of hotter-than-expected price data. For more than two years, economists have steadily lifted their interest-rate forecasts as growth showed little signs of slowing and inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target. An exception came in January, when economists forecast steeper rate cuts than they had three months earlier, confident that inflation was nearly conquered. This time, they have gone back to expecting a higher path for rates.

Earliest rate cut now is June. You'll recall that just a month ago, there was at 50-50 bet that the Fed would start cutting in March. Even a June cut doesn't have a lot of conviction behind it. I would normally be excited about the PCE coming out Thursday for January. It is expected to be 2.4% and 2.8% core. I am not that excited because the Fed is locked in at no rate cut in 3 weeks and probably no cut in May, and we'll see about June. With 4th quarter GDP expected to come in at 3.3% on Wednesday and 1st quarter estimates at 2.9% per the Atlanta Fed model, the Fed governors and regional presidents who decide rates feel no pressure to do anything. Six months ago, everyone expected that by now we would either be in a recession or the economy would be at a standstill, and the jobless rate would be over 4% and headed up. And the Fed would say, ok, we'll start rolling back rates. But that didn't happen. Maybe it will happen, in six months. But it hasn't happened. Meanwhile, as everyone was sitting around waiting for the recession, the AI boom started. It reminds me of the early '90s, when we were coming out of the recession and all of a sudden, the Internet happened, and for the rest of the decade, things exploded. So maybe AI -- and a lot of investment in chips and EV plants - is going to do the same thing. While we focus a lot on business cycles, sometimes a wave hits that basically overwhelms the business cycle. We may be experiencing the start of that wave. Business economists are not equipped to see waves.

🚨 🚨 🚨 HOT TOPIC!!! 🚨 🚨 🚨 In 2023, the U.S. economy surpassed expectations with a 5.2% annualized growth in the third quarter, despite a higher interest rate environment and geopolitical tensions. What does this mean for 2024? Economists, previously predicting a recession, are now cautiously optimistic for the year ahead! Read more below. https://lnkd.in/ebZjYpim

Explore the surprising economic resilience of 2023 & what lies ahead in 2024! Despite challenges, the U.S. economy outperformed expectations. Dive into expert insights, Fed policies, & global trends. #EconomicAnalysis #FinancialForecast #outlook2024 #LilyHo

Our 2024 Economic and Market Outlook Halftime Report is out now! Heading into the second half of 2024, the U.S economy is displaying resilience despite prior concerns about a recession. Check out the full report for insights on the economy, key market drivers, and potential risks. #2024MarketOutlook

In the ever-evolving world of #fixedincome, staying informed with expert insights is a necessity. We’ve taken a look at the latest SIFMA mid-year economic outlook, and here’s what the experts are projecting: 💹 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆: The consensus points toward cutting interest rates, with anticipated cuts starting as early as September 2024. This strategic adjustment reflects over 50% of economists’ belief in a reduction totaling 100-175 basis points by the fourth quarter of 2025. 🌐 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵: With a predicted rise in the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) to 2.8% by the end of 2024, indicators highlight a tentative but positive growth pattern. Wage growth is a significant driver, projected at 4.2% for the year, surpassing the pre-pandemic three-year average. 📊 𝗟𝗮𝗯𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗚𝗗𝗣: GDP growth is expected to be at 1.6% for 2024, setting a cautiously optimistic economic forecast. Interestingly, about 80% of surveyed economists see the probability of a recession ranging from 0% to 30%, underscoring a guarded but forward-looking stance. What are your predictions for the next 18 months? Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/ej5zQY33 Thanks to the SIFMA research team for this piece - Jay Bryson, Katie Kolchin, CFA, #JustynaRomulus

The economic intricacies of the United States hold a pivotal role in the global landscape, making it imperative to comprehend the dynamics of market movements for investors and businesses alike. Government policies further exert substantial influence over economic trajectories. A comprehensive overview, spanning from macroeconomic indicators shaping national policies to microeconomic trends impacting businesses directly, is essential for strategic decision-making. Additionally, conducting sentiment analysis becomes crucial in gauging the confidence levels of both investors and consumers. Decoding the prevailing sentiment allows for anticipatory insights into potential economic shifts and evolving consumer behavior. #USEconomy #InvestmentInsights #Finance