American National Bank & Trust’s Post

California, an epicenter of last year’s regional-bank turmoil, is also at the forefront of the industry’s latest trouble spot: commercial real estate. Almost a third of its 127 registered banks have property debt above the 300% level, the most among US states, according to a Bloomberg analysis of federal call reports that lenders filed for the end of last year. Regulators and investors are closely watching lenders’ commercial real estate holdings as values tumble across the US, particularly for office and apartment buildings. Last week, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, likened the market’s stress to a “slow-moving train.” He said the central bank is particularly focused on lenders that have exposure to office space in areas where significant price declines are expected. With thanks to: Kara Wetzel John Gittelsohn Ann Choi Bre Bradham https://lnkd.in/dB5EuXbD

River City Bank: Thinking big while staying grounded! 💸 💼 Experiencing rapid growth in recent years, the bank's commercial real estate loans now make up 660% of its capital. With the level of market downturn, banks are facing challenges in refinancing, especially in California's office markets which have been impacted by the pandemic. Michael Imerman, faculty director of the master of finance program here at the Merage School of Business, warns that "small banks cater to a specific clientele and that can lead to an age-old problem: concentration risk". #UCIMerage Read more here: https://bit.ly/3W3Tqft

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB)/Flagstar's total assets have grown rapidly as the two institutions merged and bought around $38 billion of Signature's assets in 2023. While it has benefited historically from good underwriting and low non-performing loans (NPLs), the exogenous factors of office vacancies and multifamily rent and absorption are catching up. Per NYCB 8-K reporting, Q4 2023 was the first time the bank’s NPL ratio went above a popular index in almost 25 years of history. Here, we provide a short snapshot of what happened to NYCB in late January and what’s likely to follow... https://hubs.li/Q02jVwTv0 As Trepp continues to stay on top of the news, we will cover our findings next Monday, February 12th at 1 PM ET on a webinar for the market. Join us for "Risk Management and Benchmarking ACL for Commercial Portfolios" to hear from the Trepp team and get a snapshot of the CRE loan-level dataset used in the blog: https://hubs.li/Q02jVxjv0

Let me tell you why this matters even if you don't bank with them.... Every regional bank has their fair share of CRE. What happens when they've bitten off more than they could chew in this space? They're going to begin tightening YOUR space. Banks are going to be pulling back lines of credit. They're going to call business notes due. They'll be denying extensions. All due to the fact they've got to mitigate the coming disaster. We don't care about CRE as we're an independent financial institution. Our funding isn't tied to a CRE division and how well/poorly they do. Let's talk about how we can help you institute other levers of capital for your organization. https://lnkd.in/g94RMqJU

Fannie Mae is about to release new guidance on preferred-equity regulations, which is expected to level the playing field in agency transactions. Historically, Freddie Mac has enjoyed an edge in preferred-equity deals, but with Fannie's renewed approach, lenders can expect a clearer framework. This is great news for lenders, especially since preferred-equity investments are on the rise. Although they accounted for less than 10% of agency loans issued in Q1, lenders are optimistic about Fannie's upcoming lender conference in Miami, where they are expected to unveil the new guidance. #FannieMae #FreddieMac #preferred-equity #lenderconference #agencytransactions

In light of recent insights from Jerome Powell on the lasting impacts of commercial real estate challenges and bank failures, it's a critical time for us in the real estate sector to strategize for resilience. 🏢💡 The landscape is evolving, presenting both hurdles and opportunities. As a dedicated real estate professional, I'm committed to navigating these complexities to find innovative solutions for our clients. Let's discuss how we can turn these challenges into opportunities for growth and stability. #RealEstate #CommercialRealEstate #InvestmentStrategy

You can only kick the can down the road so far before it rolls down the hill and fall off a cliff…. Several California banks are dangerously overexposed to commercial real estate (CRE), with 31% of them carrying loan portfolios three times larger than their capital, according to a recent analysis by Bloomberg. This revelation comes amid rising inflation and warnings from economists like Larry Summers about potential interest rate hikes in 2024, further exacerbating the challenges facing banks reliant on rate cuts to stabilize their CRE balance sheets. With nearly $1 trillion in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) loans set to mature in the next year and foreclosure filings on CRE properties in California already tripled from last year, the specter of another banking crisis looms large. Despite efforts to enhance oversight following the collapse of institutions like Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic, many smaller California banks may have escaped regulatory scrutiny, leaving them vulnerable to market shocks. https://lnkd.in/evhkbW5N

Regulators and investors are closely watching lenders’ commercial real estate holdings as values tumble across the US, particularly for office and apartment buildings. Last week, Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision, likened the market’s stress to a “slow-moving train.” He said the central bank is particularly focused on lenders that have exposure to office space in areas where significant price declines are expected. As the highest interest rates in a generation make it tougher for owners to refinance, banks are having to set aside more reserves for soured loans. It’s an issue that rippled through global markets earlier this year as companies from New York Community Bancorp Inc. to Japan’s Aozora Bank Ltd. warned of property losses — and is likely to be in focus in for the first-quarter earnings season that kicks off this week.

📉 As Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tighten their underwriting standards to combat loan fraud, the commercial real estate industry is preparing for more challenges in securing agency-backed financing. The new regulations will require lenders to verify financial details and cash flow for multifamily assets more rigorously. As the landscape shifts, the industry must adapt to navigate these stricter requirements. #PeeblesCorp #CommercialRealEstate #RealEstateFinancing #RegulatoryChanges

🔔 Industry Update: Christine Camp announces her departure from the boards of Central Pacific Financial and Central Pacific Bank after two decades of influential leadership. This marks a significant transition for the institutions. Meanwhile, Cohen & Company Inc. reports a robust Q4 with a net income of $4.5 million, showcasing the resilience of the financial sector amidst economic challenges. In other news, the legal battle over New York's most expensive one-bedroom apartment highlights the complexities of high-end real estate transactions. As the real estate landscape continues to evolve, these developments underscore the importance of strategic leadership, financial stability, and legal diligence in navigating the market's dynamic challenges. #RealEstate #Leadership #Finance #LegalChallenges https://fxn.ws/49BjNNQ