API - American Petroleum Institute’s Post

🔍 Exploring the Future of Gas Transit via Ukraine Post-2024 As the expiration of the 2019 EU-brokered gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine approaches, Europe stands at a crossroads in energy transit strategy. Historically, Ukraine has played a critical role in channeling Russian gas to European markets. However, with the agreement set to lapse in December 2024, the dynamics of European energy security are poised for significant change. Despite a reduction in transit volumes and increasing imports of U.S. LNG, which now account for nearly half of the EU's LNG imports, the question remains: What will the future hold for gas transit through Ukraine? Why is now the best time to terminate imports of Russian pipeline gas and impose sanctions on it? This analysis delves into the strategic, economic, and geopolitical implications of potential scenarios post-agreement. I would like to express my deep appreciation to Mr. Daniel Stein for co-authoring this analysis. Join the conversation on how Europe can navigate this pivotal transition to ensure energy security and geopolitical stability. ➡️ Read the full analysis here -> https://lnkd.in/g-cKrB7V #EnergySecurity #EuropeanUnion #Geopolitics #LNGImports #RussiaUkraineConflict

In view of Russia’s targeted missile attacks against Ukraine’s gas system, notably its massive underground gas storage facilities which are also used by international traders, the question of transporting Russian gas through Ukraine next year is more open than ever. Very good article summarising the economic arguments.

The new year of the dragon just started and transatlantic energy tensions are happening. A move most European leaders would expect from a Trump administration, was executed under an even more hostile Biden administration. - Less than a year ago, Germany built its first LNG terminal done under the new "German speed". At the time experts warned that shifting dependencies from Russia towards the Atlantic is the try to treat disease with another illness. The believe of the NATO members was that allies wouldn't do that among themselves, but a military alliance is no economic or infrastructure alliance. = French president Macron pulled the emergency break by saying that 6 times the market price for LNG is blackmailing, but was ignored by his European colleagues. A strong reminder for Asian leaders who count on more than just arms imports from uncle Sam. E-fuel, Bio-fuel, green hydrogen, green methanol and battery storage are ways to get independent from this kind of blackmailing: https://lnkd.in/gYRFsxMP #transatlantic #energysecurity #lngindustry #uselections

This is one of the ways you can tell that President Biden is not serious about the war in Ukraine. When Putin invaded Ukraine, Europe swore off Russian gas, despite the fact that many European countries were heavily dependent on Russia gas.. They were able to do that because the United States pioneered and perfected the shipment of Liquified Natural Gas. To import this American product, Europe started building terminals that could receive and replace Russian natural gas. Now Biden, at the behest of his green folks, wants to stop the export of American energy. This is stupid from the viewpoint of American business and jobs, but incredibly foolhardy when it comes to our European allies who are purchasing American has instead of Russian gas. One can be tempted to wonder who is actually running the American government - but what might be worse is that several different centers of power may exist that contradict each other. One cannot possibly be for helping Ukraine fight off the Russian dictator, while at the same time helping Putin by forcing Europeans to buy his gas - the profits from which he will fund the bombing of Ukrainian cities. The United States needs a consistent and strong policy that supports those people fighting for democracy and their own sovereignty.  We're not getting that from the Biden Administration.

The EU Eyes Independence: No Renewal for Russian Gas Transit via Ukraine -The European Union has declared it has no interest in extending its gas transit agreement with Russia through Ukraine beyond its 2024 expiration date. This bold move signals a significant shift in energy dependence and geopolitical alliances. - Investments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and renewable energy have bolstered alternative supply options, reducing reliance on Russian gas. -The decision underscores the EU's commitment to reducing economic ties with Russia following the Ukraine invasion. - While potentially losing transit fees, Ukraine remains committed to gas independence and developing alternative transit routes. -  The move could disrupt gas flows and impact prices in the short term, necessitating strategic responses from both the EU and Russia. -Reduced reliance on Russian gas could create higher demand for alternative sources like East Med reserves. This could lead to increased exploration, investment, and production in the region. -Geopolitical tensions might push EU countries to diversify their suppliers, favoring countries like Israel and Egypt with established gas infrastructure. -The decision could revitalize support for East Med pipeline projects like EastMed, potentially attracting more investment and accelerating development. However, competition from existing LNG exporters and high project costs could still be obstacles.

"The US is directly targeting Russia’s ability to export liquefied natural gas [#LNG] for the first time, in a move that could cause disruptions in global energy markets that Washington has so far been keen to avoid." "European countries continued importing #RussianLNG even after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year, which triggered an energy crisis after Moscow slashed pipeline supplies to the continent. Until recently, the US has sought to avoid disrupting flows so as not to increase the pressure on allies battling a shortage." "But in early November, the U.S. Department of State announced #sanctions on a new Russian development known as #ArcticLNG2 — in effect blocking countries in Europe and Asia from buying the project’s gas when it starts producing next year, according to officials, lawyers and analysts." https://lnkd.in/g4nP_Xn6

The European Union is considering further measures to rein in Russia’s economy. One of them would have major implications for gas companies operating in the Arctic region, according to The Barents Observer. On the table is a potential ban on re-exports of liquid natural gas transported to the EU from the Russian Arctic. Until now,, the LNG has been sold on to consumers in China, India and other Asian markets.. The proposed ban needs to be ratified by all EU members. If that happens, it could take effect this summer. The sanctions would be particularly damaging for PAO Novatek, Russia's second-largest natural gas producer. It operates the huge Yamal LNG facility in northwest Siberia. You can read the story in full by clicking on this link: https://lnkd.in/exi3E9KW #lng #russia #arctic #arctictoday #arcticregion #commoditymarket

"The EU sees no need to extend deal on Russian #gas #transit via Ukraine". As we mentioned already last year with Tatiana Mitrova, there is simply not enough political support from all sides to extend that deal. When this 5-year deal was signed, there were tensions but no war in Ukraine. But also there were meetings between heads of state of Ukraine, Russia, and also of Germany and France, with involvement of the European Commission to extend that deal. This was still done at the last minute at the end of December 2019. Given the EU's target to stop imports of Russian gas by 2027, it seems quite obvious that the EU side - not speaking about individual countries - would not support an extension of the deal. The EU seems increasingly confident about its supply situation (prices - albeit still elevated - are after all slowly moving to normal levels). And the LNG supply picture is about to get better towards the end of 2024/early 2025. Additionally, the gas package will contain provisions allowing member states to adopt restrictions to the supply of natural gas from Russia - another sign from the EU. That will leave TurkStream as the main artery for Russian pipeline gas to EU countries. It does not mean though that no pipeline gas would ever be transported through the Ukrainian system; it may still happen on an ad-hoc basis as countries and companies are trying to sort out their own dependency on Russian gas before 2027. They might just book transit capacity on a daily/monthly etc.. basis Among the key EU countries importing gas through that route * Italy will likely be fine given their access to various supply sources * Austria is still very much dependent on Russian gas; 98% of net imports in Dec 2023, really? - somebody is stuck with their LT contract * Slovakia will need to find alternatives with transit through its European neighbors * Hungary is likely to fully shift to TurkStream Tom Marzec-Manser Erik Rakhou Marwa Rashad Nathan Mann Mike Fulwood Jack Sharples Jean-Michel Glachant Kirsten Westphal Didier Holleaux Roxana Caliminte Sara Piskor https://lnkd.in/e2WekzCH

The UK's Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho plans to advocate for the cessation of Russian LNG imports across Europe at the upcoming International Energy Agency meeting in France. Despite the UK's ban on Russian LNG since January 2023, concerns persist about potential exposure to Russian-origin gas due to complex gas networks and continued LNG imports by some EU countries. While the risk of Russian gas entering the UK remains small, calls intensify to close European ports to Russian LNG amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. #UKEnergy #RussianLNG #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics #CleanEnergyTransition #IEAMinisterial #GlobalGasDemand