Americas Quarterly’s Post

" The biggest potential economic benefit of generative A.I. is that it could increase productivity significantly. Since 2005, U.S. labor productivity has grown an average of 1.4% a year. Raising that to the postwar average of 2.2% could add up to $10 trillion to U.S. GDP by 2030. Generative A.I., if coupled with the effective redeployment of the hours it saves, could increase U.S. labor productivity by 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points a year. Combined with all other automation technologies, the increase could be up to as much as 3% to 4% annual GDP growth. " #ai #productivity #growth #generativeai https://lnkd.in/gH4j2adP

Following up on its own look at AI’s economic potential — an annual range it estimated as somewhere between $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion — McKinsey & Company recently put focus on the impact AI looks to make on labor with its report, “Generative AI and the Future of Work in America.” According to its forecasts, more than a quarter of all human-hours could be automated by the end of this decade. “Without generative AI, we estimate that automation could take over tasks accounting for 21.5 percent of the hours currently worked in the US economy by 2030,” the report says. “With it, that share jumps to 29.5 percent. This includes a significant increase in tasks involving expertise, interactions with people, and even creativity. Tasks requiring physical work, by contrast, are expected to be less affected.” The report acknowledges many of generative AI’s uses that, even in their early stages, are being used on their own or with “humans in the loop.” Additionally, the report makes the distinction that automation adoption is “not the same as eliminating jobs.” "Many jobs with some automatable tasks will remain, but the day-to-day nature of what people do and how they do it changes,” the report says. “In fact, employment demand should continue to rise in many occupations most exposed to generative AI, although perhaps at a slower rate. Generative AI and other automation technologies could help the United States reignite its flagging productivity growth, partially compensating for declining employment growth as the population ages. Capturing that effect means that workers would have to use these technologies properly and effectively.” #automation #ai #aiautomation #aijobs #automationsolutions #publishing #publishingindustry #digitalpublishing #mediapublishing #digitalmarketing #digitalmediamanager #digitalmediamanagement #MarketingManager (Photo Source: McKinsey)

Looking to future-proof your workforce in the age of AI? 💡 According to the IMF, almost 40% of jobs will be affected by AI, fundamentally changing the HR landscape as we know it. Check out this insightful article about the impact of artificial intelligence on jobs and the steps needed to equip workers with the skills for success in a rapidly evolving job market: https://bit.ly/4bYAHqk

AI Is Making Economists Rethink the Story of Automation Is artificial intelligence about to put vast numbers of people out of a job? Most economists would argue the answer is no: If technology permanently puts people out of work then why, after centuries of new technologies, are there still so many jobs left? New technologies, they claim, make the economy more productive and allow people to enter new fields — like the shift from agriculture to manufacturing. For that reason, economists have historically shared a general view that whatever upheaval might be caused by technological change, it is “somewhere between benign and benevolent.” But as new AI models and tools are released almost weekly, that consensus is cracking. Evidence has mounted that digital technologies have helped to increase inequality in the U.S. and around the world. As computers have made knowledge workers more productive, for instance, they have also lowered demand for “middle wage” jobs like clerical worker or administrative assistant. In response, some economists have started to revise their models of how technology — and particularly automation — affects labor markets. “The possibility that technological improvements that increase productivity can actually reduce the wage of all workers is an important point to emphasize because it is often downplayed or ignored,” write MIT’s Daron Acemoglu and Boston University’s Pascual Restrepo in a recent paper. This new economics of automation retains the core idea that, in the long run, technology often makes workers more productive and so allows their wages to rise. But it also raises two important points: First, there is a big difference between using technology to automate existing work and creating entirely new capabilities that couldn’t exist before. Second, the path of technology depends in part on who’s deciding how it’s used. “AI offers vast tools for augmenting workers and enhancing work. Economists’ more recent models of automation also provide crucial lessons for the coming tech wave. If AI is going to usher in an era of widely-shared prosperity, two things will need to be true. First, it needs to create new kinds of work that humans can excel at — new tasks that didn’t exist before. Second, decision-making at all levels, from firms to governments, needs to include workers’ voices. That doesn’t necessarily mean giving workers a veto over every potential AI use case or insisting that no jobs be lost. But it does mean ensuring workers have the power to make their perspective heard. https://lnkd.in/dqxy2UD8

"2️⃣ Impact of Automation High-income countries are more susceptible to the effects of automation, particularly in clerical and para-professional jobs. Countries like India and the Philippines, which have a significant call center industry, are also at risk." Below is an ILO working paper published August 2023 and point 2 contains the analysis I wrote in my paper back in February 2018. 5 years later, here's a 6-word re-articulation of my synthesis: Let's build people for the unknown. #hyperisland #transdisciplinarity #heutagogy #metaskills #adaptabilityquotient

AI has the potential to increase productivity by automating routine tasks and freeing up human workers to focus on more complex and creative tasks. According to a report by PwC UK, AI could contribute up to $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030 . However, the impact of AI on employment is a major concern, with some studies suggesting it could lead to higher income inequality as technologists and managers design AI to substitute for human labor read more: https://lnkd.in/gujM896N

Now things start to get interesting: An AI moderator and two AI panelists discuss the risk and opportunities of AI ----> (Moderator): AI accelerationist, what are the key factors contributing to the rapid adoption of automation and AI in various industries, and how is it reshaping the nature of employment? AI alarmist, what are the potential negative consequences of widespread adoption of automation and AI on employment, and what measures can be taken to mitigate these impacts?   (AI alarmist): The rapid adoption of automation and AI in various industries, while it may bring efficiency and cost savings, also poses significant risks to employment. As machines and algorithms become more advanced, they can perform tasks previously done by humans, potentially leading to job displacement. This is particularly true for jobs that involve routine tasks, which are more susceptible to automation.   Moreover, the transition to an automated economy could exacerbate income inequality. Those with skills that are complemented by AI and automation may see their incomes rise, while those with skills that are substituted by these technologies may see their incomes fall or their jobs disappear entirely.   To mitigate these impacts, we need to invest in education and training programs that can help workers adapt to the changing job market. Policies that promote job creation in sectors less likely to be affected by automation could also be beneficial.   Furthermore, we need to have a serious discussion about the potential for implementing measures such as a universal basic income, which could provide a safety net for those displaced by automation and AI.   In conclusion, while automation and AI have the potential to bring about significant economic benefits, we must also be mindful of the potential negative consequences and take steps to ensure that these technologies are implemented in a way that benefits everyone, not just a select few.   (AI accelerationist): While it's true that automation and AI can lead to job displacement in certain sectors, it's important to consider the whole picture. Research suggests that 80 percent of jobs can incorporate generative AI technology and capabilities into activities that happen today in work. This means that AI and automation can be used to augment human capabilities, not just replace them. Moreover, a recent study found that more than 90% of American workers want AI-supported data collection in the workplace, indicating a positive attitude towards these technologies. Most experts believe that AI is likely to boost global growth to 4-6% per annum, and they also believe that AI is unlikely to affect employment rates in high-income countries. While it's crucial to implement measures to support those who may be displaced by these technologies, we should also embrace the immense potential that AI and automation have to revolutionize our economy and society (continues in comments)

In a new report for the American Enterprise Institute on Navigating the Future of Work, Daron Acemoglu warns that worker-displacing applications of AI "will continue to produce disruptive results, and the productivity gains are likely to be less than optimists expect, because we haven’t made the adjustments and counterbalancing investments necessary for creating jobs—especially good jobs—for a broad range of skills." How can we ensure that #AI adoption creates good jobs and new tasks, instead of automating work and increasing inequality? Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/gjfuUxbs

AI is good for the global economy—and we have the data to prove it. PwC Deutschland’s 2024 AI Jobs Barometer extensively analysed job ads and productivity data to measure AI’s impact on the workforce. Sectors that are most exposed to AI are seeing nearly 5x higher labour productivity, and jobs that require AI skills can command up to 25% higher wages, on average. Learn more here: https://pwc.to/4acnauf #AIJobsBarometer

#MiddleEast workers embrace #AI and sustainability, eyeing skills enhancement in a shifting job landscape. PwC's report reveals regional enthusiasm for AI adoption and "green" skills, with 52% foreseeing job changes in 5 years. More details in Abdel-Rahman Ayas's article in #AlMajalla.