Andrew Harrop’s Post

The latest from the Globe and Mail's business commentary, by Eric Reguly: French politics just got messier, and may stay messy for a long time as political paralysis sets in. A round of jostling and squabbling among the party bosses is certain, with an uncertain outcome, and a stalemate possible, while the economy and markets will stay jittery.

A new publication with Dr Paul Anderson In this piece for a special issue, we examine successive UK Conservative-led governments and evaluate devolution in Scotland and Wales through the lens of the Asymmetric Power Model and the British Political Tradition. We document changes in the position of successive Conservative governments, from the more plurinationally sensitive respect agenda of David Cameron to the more assertive and intrusive Unionism advanced under those in post after 2016, notably Theresa May and Boris Johnson. https://lnkd.in/g9XqefpJ

The new European Parliament is heading into its new cycle this week with three far right political groups. Although this may signal fragmentation among them, those concerned about democracy and the future of the European integration should stay alert. 🔗 My thoughts on what we are heading into for the WELT: https://lnkd.in/e9eeWsGp ◾ The creation of two new far-right political groups has restructured the far-right presence in the European Parliament. Despite smaller-than-expected gains in the recent elections, the far right have collectively bolstered its position, overtaking progressive political forces like Renew Europe and the Greens. ◾ The establishment of the Patriots is a rebranding attempt moving away from ID's primarily anti-immigration-focused rhetoric toward a focus on the future of Europe propagating a vision of strong nation states and intergovernmentalism. The shift opens the doors for Eurosceptic, illiberal, but not necessarily nativist parties (like ANO), while the core members maintain their nationalist, exclusionary, and authoritarian ideology. The rebranding also aims to eventually break away from the past legacy of ID's exclusion from parliamentary work. ◾ However, the normalization of the radical right as demonstrated by ECR's course and its collaboration with mainstream political groups threaten liberal democratic values and the European integration process. The lack of the cordon sanitaire vis-a-vis ECR already bears witness to the greater acceptance of these forces. This trend, if continues, could undermine the foundations of the EU and challenge the achievements of European integration.

Transforming our democracy: is it time for the UK to establish a House of Campaigns? Let's delve into the intricacies of politics beyond party lines and explore the potential of an issue-focused Parliament. Read on below. #UKDemocracy 👉 https://thersa.co/3wx3C5X

We had a fantastic talk about the rise of the far-right with Catherine E. de Vries, Sophie Pornschlegel and Max Griera last week. 📺 You can watch it here: https://lnkd.in/eBC-pRU7 Here are only a few of many interesting takeaways: 💬 'Far-right' is an umbrella term for radical parties (i.e. that want to change the system by reform) and extreme parties (i.e. that want to undermine democracy). They can be distinguished from traditional right-wing parties in that they often mobilise on culture rather than on economics. They are united in their anti-immigration and anti-elite rhetoric but have various positions on economic policies. 💬 Immigration is not the only driver anymore. The electorate of far-right parties is getting larger and more heterogeneous as they adjust their messaging (i.e. moderate their rhetoric) and link migration to social “grievances” such as lack of housing, health care and other public services. 💬 Established political parties frequently respond by adopting more extreme positions themselves, despite studies indicating that this, at best, brings short-term electoral benefits – in the long run, people seem to prefer the ‘original’. 💬 On the EU level, far-right parties tell their voters they want to change the EU from within - but effectively, they (particularly the former ID group) have been largely absent from the parliamentary work. Hence, key aspects to look out for in the next term are the level of involvement of the two new far-right groups in the EP and the degree to which the cordon sanitaire will be upheld. Further: How will the EPP play its powerful position as kingmaker? After all, how much power far-right parties wield depends very much on how much the mainstream parties (and especially the EPP as their ‘neighbour’ on the political spectrum) grant them.

Yesterday, Dan Sillett argued that the lack of alternative deliverers of change meant that it would be sensical to vote for the Conservatives at the upcoming election. Will Kingston-Cox fundamentally disagrees this morning, in his Sunday column. Kingston-Cox challenges Dan Sillett's suggestion to vote for the Conservatives, arguing that it would not bring about any change in the UK. He believes that the duopoly of Labour and the Conservatives stifles innovation and neglects critical issues, making a vote for the Tories counterproductive. He argues that smaller parties like Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party play a crucial role in challenging the political status quo. He emphasises that these parties offer alternative policies and perspectives that can disrupt the dominance of the two main parties and provide necessary checks and balances on future governments. Ultimately, Kingston-Cox asserts that the current first-past-the-post system is inadequate, and advocates for proportional representation to better reflect the diverse political views of the electorate and promote accountability and responsiveness within the Labour-Tory duopoly. #ge2024 #labour #conservatives #reformuk #libdems #green #nigelfarage https://lnkd.in/ewnhfmGP

While I don’t agree in full with every point in this Opinion piece by Christopher Caldwell, I do think his overall assessment of the broader trends roiling the waters of the European body politic - be they economic, social or political - has considerable merit, and the analogies he draws to Continental concerns of the 19th century and the recent elections in Europe demand our collective attention. The decline of values we might call western and liberal appear to be accelerating in many places around the world, and the attendant potential to fuel violent extremism and other forms of political violence feels very real. Critically, we must be wiling to ask ourselves, as we see more extreme candidates and political movements come to power through the ballot box, whether they will ever be willing to peacefully relinquish power should they lose elections in the future. If past is prologue, history has taught us that such concessions are usually both rare and bitter, at best. Given this, it is imperative that responsible stakeholders who still have agency within these systems begin to lay the groundwork for both the mitigation of the erosion of civil society and ideally an eventual return to some form of equitable centrism. This is undoubtedly a tall order, but the alternative, as Caldwell implies, is a difficult and divisive future, even more fractious than the present. #violentextremism #extremism #civilsociety #nationalsecurity #Europe #politics #elections

Huge thanks to Professor Anand Menon for hosting this morning's H&K London breakfast on the relationships - and fissures - between the EU, UK and US as the world becomes less open. Could a Labour government reboot the UK's relationship with Europe? It seems unlikely. With populist parties expected to gain in June's elections, the EU's focus will be its own integration, not the UK's seemingly interminable Brexit hangover. And what about the rise of populism here in the UK? Whilst the UK's "First Past the Post" electoral system has safeguarded us (so far) from the rise of fringe parties, the electoral faultlines of age, education and geography are becoming increasingly difficult for the main parties to manage coherently. So what did we conclude was needed? Serious, long-term, industrial planning - agreed and delivered cross-party. But did we think it would happen? For me, the jury is still (sadly) very much out. Thanks to some of our sector leads at H&K Jonathan Caleb-Landy Dominic Fean Tzveta Dryanovska and our CEO Simon Whitehead for shepherding these discussions. Next H&K Public Affairs Transformation Breakfast coming soon - likely on the changing role of the UK regulators.

Very interesting piece that highlights the strong risk at #EU level of 'back door' alignments between the more mainstream political groups and radical factions, to the right and left: "many of the mainstream parties that spurned alliances with radicals in their home countries seem perfectly content to ally with them at the EU level, through Europarties and political groups in the Parliament." Why is this the case? A study in Italy and Germany has revealed: "...most voters actually knew very little about these alliances — 72 percent of our respondents couldn’t even identify which Europarty their national party belonged to". Mainstream political groups can (and have) use(d) EU citizens' lack of knowledge about party dynamics to collaborate with more radical contingents. For the sake of the EU project's reputation and its #DemocraticLegitimacy this has to be called out. However, recent trends indicate that voters are venting thier discontent domestically by voting for far right parties. Mainstream parties seem, currently, at a loss to counter this offensive. The combination of these issues signals a very worrying shift to the right in the upcoming #EuropeanParliamentElections

𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲'𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 Excerpts: "Observers of the recent elections for the European parliament, held on June 9, 2024, have rightly concluded that the election results hold a significance far beyond the event itself. If one looks beyond the mainstream media’s predictable preoccupation with the rise of the “extreme Right,” one can discern the beginnings of a continent-wide demand for democratic accountability. 𝗔 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗲𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗮 𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝘂𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗱-𝘂𝗽 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 '𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲𝘀.' 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗮 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗴𝗻𝗶𝘇𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗼𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝗱𝗼 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗻 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀." "Some elementary questions can help clear the air. Are angry European farmers who oppose the fanaticism inherent in draconian environmental measures, and the inevitable loss of their livelihoods, extremists? Should they resign them themselves to penury? Does the whole world have the right to citizenship in European countries even at the cost of social stability, economic vitality, and a meaningful sense of shared political and cultural mores?" "The leadership of a weak and humiliated Europe, open to everything but its own traditions and the sovereign will of its peoples, complains constantly about the dangers of a 'desperate nationalism.' ... Whatever the European project is in its present form, it is hardly 'democratic' or 'liberal' in any recognizable sense of those terms. That is a truth one will never learn from mainstream politicians, academics, activists, or intellectuals." by Daniel J. Mahoney Full article: https://lnkd.in/eYfW2CH3 The American Mind (The Claremont Institute)