Andy ThurAI’s Post

Earlier this year, I made a confident prediction: deep fakes and AI would not have nearly as big of an effect on this election as the doomsayers were portending. My reasoning seemed sound. Doomsayers have often been wrong in predicting the destruction new media would cause to democracy, civil order, and truth. But I was only partially right. A deep fake or AI manipulated image hasn’t meaningfully moved the needle in this election — but the haunting specter of this technology threatens to. Former President Trump has been dismissing visuals he dislikes as deep fakes or AI manipulation – and with a deeply media illiterate public that is prone to confirmation bias, he’s kind of getting away with it. As Vice President Harris has drawn larger crowds, Trump has started to claim that the crowds aren’t really there at all. “She AI-ed it,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, speaking of the crowds at an event VP Harris held in Detroit outside an airplane hangar in August. This strategy isn’t new. Trump has been using the “it’s just AI” defense since December 2023, when the Lincoln Project aired an ad against him. His recent claims about crowd sizes, however, seem to be gaining more steam than previous lies. Last Friday, Trump even declared that a photo he had once acknowledged as real—one from 1987 showing him with journalist E. Jean Carroll, whom he was later found liable for sexually abusing and defaming—was now an AI fabrication. Law professors Robert Chesney and Danielle Citron coined a term for this new phenomenon in a 2018 paper for the California Law review. They call it the "liar's dividend." “Imagine a situation in which an accusation is supported by genuine video or audio evidence." The professors wrote six years ago. "As the public becomes more aware of the idea that video and audio can be convincingly faked, some will try to escape accountability for their actions by denouncing authentic video and audio as deep fakes." Of course, contesting the crowd size of a rally four months ahead of election day might seem like small potatoes, but it seems to me that this could be fairly strategic. Donald Trump is pilot-testing the efficacy of the liar’s dividend – and, at least within his own base, it seems to be working. At last night’s Presidential debate, Trump once again asserted that he was the real winner of the 2020 election. He also planted a seed for sending elections to be certified by the legislature – insisting that’s what should have happened four years ago. We already know that, even without the specter of deep fakes and despite losing an election, Trump can incite his supporters to violence (see: January 6, 2021). The question we ought to be asking ourselves is this: If Trump can play this sleight of hand with his followers today, what will he convince them of in the future? 

I'm increasingly less worried about AI-fueled disinformation & deepfakes from American politicians & more worried about foreign actors (Russia, China, etc...) using AI to undermine our democracy altogether. I can just imagine the chaos anti-democratic actors have planned heading into November and post-election. If you think 2016 & 2020 was bad, just wait. It's a big part of the reason Meta decided to downgrade all political content yet again. Honestly, it's hard to blame them. An actor who fundamentally doesn't care about our democracy & is just trying to sow civil unrest (and yes, this includes Donald Trump & his closest allies) is more dangerous than a run-of-the-mill bad-faith actor. Let’s not forget that Russia has been caught playing both sides multiple times organizing protests & counter-protests on social media on culture war issues over the years. Now, imagine the 2024 version of that — right-wing sites & social media overrun with fake videos of ballots spilling out of a box from a swing state Trump narrowly lost. Foreign actors using AI & social media to organize protests & counter-protests outside the homes of election officials who are just trying to do their job. Not great! We have to be prepared to leverage AI to help us win elections & find ways to combat the ways this technology will be used to attack our democracy & disrupt our society heading into November. That includes arming the public with the tools they need to understand the ways this technology is going to be used against them & making sure we have clear sources of authority to point people to. Sitting on the sidelines when it comes to AI is not an option here. Especially given how close this election is going to be for the White House & Congress (not to mention countless local elections where AI misuse will fly under the radar.) P.S. This issue is even more challenging in non-English speaking countries where Big Tech companies have invested significantly fewer resources to combat AI disinformation. As much as the media has covered the obvious misuses (deepfakes, for example) in the U.S., I'm not sure anybody is prepared for the actors we may see in other countries, especially for America's allies in Europe & around the world.

In May, someone released a comedic deepfake of DeSantis inspired by "The Office". In June, there was a bit of a darker turn, with a crude image of Donald Trump embracing Anthony Fauci. This image, put out by the now-defunct Ron DeSantis presidential campaign, was not intended to be funny. In September, there was again an escalation of sorts, with a serious deepfake of DeSantis quitting the race being produced. And just today, another escalation. This time a deepfake audio call of President Biden in New Hampshire, telling thousands of voters to stay home and "save your vote for the November election". All of these were proven fake and quickly. That is good. But as the Generative AI models get better, the sophistication of the deepfakes will only improve, making discernment of fact from fiction and real from fake even harder. And as the November Presidential election draws closer, expect these politically-targeted deepfakes to increase in frequency as well. And think of the consequences. It's not a humorous clip of Ron DeSantis as Michael Scott. It's suppressed voter turnout, disinformation, manipulation of the election. Or even a degradation of trust in any information sources and inability to see truth. In the fraud and trust and safety worlds, being suspicious of scams, anomalies and deception is our business -- every day. It's whittling through schemes and finding truth. But now, this degree of vigilance is all of our business as the stakes are ever higher. In the great HBO series "Chernobyl", Jared Harris, playing Soviet scientist Valery Legasov said, "What is the cost of lies? It's not that we'll mistake them for the truth. The real danger is that if we hear enough lies, then we no longer recognize the truth at all." An important line, particularly now. #deepfakes #fraud #trustandsafety #election2024 #responsibleai

In today's fast-paced digital world, misinformation spreads faster than ever. A recent example is a fake audio clip of Donald Trump calling Republicans "the dumbest group of voters," which was created using AI and has resurfaced ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This false rumor, originally from years ago, demonstrates how easily AI can be used to manipulate information and mislead the public. 🎙️ Have you come across misinformation online? How do you verify the authenticity of such claims? 💡 #AI #Misinformation #2024Election

In much election coverage, there’s an undercurrent of fear that AI-generated deepfakes and hoaxes are (or soon will be) incredibly realistic and utterly convincing. But that may be mere techno-panic. Even if ubiquitous and inexpensive AI tools have made it easier than ever to create misinformation, it’s unclear whether AI is making much of a difference in politics. Many of us have “a fairly naive idea about how influence operations actually work,” Carl Miller—the research director at the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at Demos, a political think tank based in the United Kingdom—said. People may imagine that bad actors will spread “convincing yet untrue images about the world to get them to change their minds.” In reality, influence operations are designed to “agree with people’s worldviews, flatter them, confirm them, and then try to harness that.” More important than the technical power of AI: who disinformation comes from, how it makes people feel, and whether that plays into their existing beliefs. Influence of this kind, Miller said, is not about truth or facts, but kinship. As he told Mathew Ingram, “It’s going to talk to them about meaning in their lives, where they fit in the world. It’s going to confirm the grievances they have. It’s all to do with identity and emotion and social links.” Full story is here: https://lnkd.in/giH8FXrn

The ease and accessibility of AI tools make them a powerful force in shaping political discourse. As the 2024 U.S. election nears, fears of AI-generated deepfakes flooding social media haven’t fully materialized. Instead, AI-generated political memes—often absurd and cartoonish—have gained popularity, with both Republicans and Democrats using them to entertain or push political messages. Though some memes are lighthearted, many propagate harmful narratives, such as conspiracy theories. Experts warn that these AI memes, while not always convincing, can still fuel misinformation. #AIMemes #2024Election #PoliticalSatire #Deepfakes #TrumpAI #Misinformation #ElectionMemes #SocialMedia https://lnkd.in/d-MAXeua

In an unsettling abuse of AI-generated imagery, Taylor Swift has been made the subject of fake endorsement posters for both Biden and Trump. The fake image first appeared in its Pro-Biden form in a Facebook group supporting the then-presidential candidate. It was apparently made initially without the intent to deceive by an anonymous individual who told NBC news he was inspired by Swift's 2020 endorsement of Biden. He further went on to explain how he was attempting to use AI imagery as a form of satire, and also wanted to support Biden's campaign which he viewed as having poor communication. Less than a year later, however, an altered version of the image began circulating where the text had been replaced with an endorsement of Trump instead, leading some to believe she supported him as a presidential candidate. Upon being made aware of this image, Swift publicly (and swiftly) announced her endorsement of Kamala Harris in an Instagram post. We have a major problem brewing. As AI generation gets more advanced, it will become harder and harder to tell fiction from reality. Just take a look at these two videos (both AI generated) of "Will Smith eating spaghetti", the first of which is from a little over a year ago and the second from just the past few weeks: 1) https://lnkd.in/gKJHebWu 2) https://lnkd.in/gRbTSyQv We need to be wary of how this technology may be used to influence the perception of public personalities, and in turn how that may affect those who are influenced by them. Even the initial poster which more-or-less aligned with Swift's political views should not have been created without her tacit approval as otherwise it begins to blur the lines between what is acceptable when portraying fictitious portraits of people which may be mistaken for reality. #LetsBeCarefulOutThere #flcc270 https://lnkd.in/g6xHVBKf

A focus of AI detection models has typically been on proving that a piece of content has been manipulated or altered in some way, often by looking for clues in the metadata, pixel and ELA analysis or AI based analysis. The recent furor over false claims of AI manipulation at Kamala Harris’s large rally introduces a new perspective, where the burden of proof shifts toward proving that the content is in fact, real. Does this highlight the need to adopt wider standards for content provenance? Is it indicative of growing distrust in news sources? How can tech support trusted verification online, to prove something is real? One thing is clear: with new AI generation tools like the powerful Flux Lora, the lines of arbitration on what’s real or false will become harder to draw in the coming months.

AI’s Role in the 2024 Presidential Race: Not What Experts Expected As generative AI becomes more accessible, experts feared it would flood the 2024 U.S. presidential election with dangerous deepfakes and disinformation. While those fears haven’t fully materialized, AI is still playing a significant role; just in unexpected ways. Rather than sophisticated deepfakes, voters are seeing absurd, AI-generated memes: Trump riding a cat or Kamala Harris in outlandish attire. These hyper-realistic but cartoonish images have gone viral, turning AI into a tool for spreading political humor. However, these memes also carry a darker edge, sometimes promoting false or racist narratives. Experts warn that AI-made images are amplifying harmful, long-standing political narratives, especially around issues like immigration. Trump and his supporters, for instance, have shared AI images promoting baseless conspiracy theories, while Democrats have used AI to mock Trump. These images, though often intended as satire, blur the line between humor and misinformation. AI has made it easy and cheap for campaigns to create viral content. With tools accessible to anyone, political figures can quickly respond to online trends. While AI-generated content can be entertaining, it still requires human oversight to ensure that the message doesn’t cross into deception. As AI continues to shape the political landscape, the ability to create misleading or humorous content with just a few clicks could redefine how campaigns engage voters. While deepfakes haven’t taken over the election, the rapid rise of AI-generated political memes demonstrates that the technology is already influencing how candidates connect with the public. #AIinPolitics #2024Election #ArtificialIntelligence #PoliticalMemes #Deepfakes #DigitalCampaigns #TechAndElections #AIEthics Posted by: Hari Sunil Subburayan