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August has been quite a bumpy ride for the stock markets. 📈 📉 The first week of the month began with volatility and significant losses, but the indexes have since recovered. What caused this downturn? And more importantly, what factors contributed to the resurgence? Discover Gilles Coens’s overview via the links in the comments to gain insights into the forces driving current market movements. #Invest #Stockmarket #EconomicOutlook

It’s that time again when market strategists produce their forecasts for the coming year. One of the variables that they use to predict the future of markets is valuations. Valuations have historically been unhelpful in forecasting markets over shorter time horizons. History is replete with examples that show that overvalued markets can not only stay overvalued for extended periods but can become even more so before finally reverting to average levels. Fed Chair Alan Greenspan delivered his “irrational exuberance” speech in December 1996, in which he warned that the stock market might be overvalued. Notwithstanding that he was ultimately right, the S&P 500 Index rose a stunning 116% from the date of his speech to its pre-bear market peak in March 2000. Although valuations have been (and likely will continue to be) a poor predictor of returns over shorter holding periods, in my latest newsletter, I discuss how they have proven somewhat effective for longer-term forecasting.   DM me for a copy.

This week's Market Commentary reflects a divergent performance in the equity markets, highlighting the volatility between different sectors and cap-sizes. With significant movements in small-cap stocks and varied earnings reports impacting major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, understanding these dynamics is crucial. Our analysis provides a detailed breakdown of last week's market behavior and forward-looking insights: https://lnkd.in/gKhJzPQC #FinancialMarkets #ProfessionalAnalysis

This chart displays the annual number of stock market volatility events from 2009 to 2023, with the orange line representing the average of 66 events per year. Despite fluctuations in the frequency of these events, understanding and maintaining a long-term investment perspective is crucial.

Valuations have historically been unhelpful in forecasting markets over shorter time horizons. History is replete with examples that show that overvalued markets can not only stay overvalued for extended periods but can become even more so before finally reverting to average levels. Fed Chair Alan Greenspan delivered his “irrational exuberance” speech in December 1996, in which he warned that the stock market might be overvalued. Notwithstanding that he was ultimately right, the S&P 500 Index rose a stunning 116% from the date of his speech to its pre-bear market peak in March 2000. Although valuations have been (and likely will continue to be) a poor predictor of returns over shorter holding periods, in my latest newsletter, I discuss how they have proven somewhat effective for longer-term forecasting. DM me for a copy.

📉 Upward Momentum Cooling in European Stocks 📉 After hitting a record high earlier this month, the upward momentum for European stocks is once again cooling. While market internals remain positive, the Stoxx 600 went overbought in mid-May. Interestingly, Europe’s benchmark hasn't approached oversold territory since late October, suggesting sustained investor risk appetite. However, the momentum picture is less encouraging. A monitor reveals weakness across many major benchmarks, aligning with market patterns observed in January and April. During these periods, momentum weakness was followed by a sideways to mild downturn phase lasting several weeks. Source: Bloomberg, Herculis Group #WealthManagement #InvestmentSolutions #InvestmentInsights #MarketTrends #EuropeanStocks #Stoxx600 #MarketAnalysis

The concentration of the S&P 500 is getting weird. Since most of the time we are talking about a market capitalization allocation, the top companies control the index. For the investor this may not be the diversified basket of stocks it once was, so what do you do? There are many ways to achieve a diversified allocation that will allow for participation in a bull market, while not having all your eggs in one basket should something happen. It just takes a little work, and research. Most importantly, you should not be comparing your returns to this index. I get it, the S&P index is front of mind and always on TV and used as a gauge as to how the market is performing. Reread above, it is now very concentrated and it's not representative of what happened during the day in the stock market. Development of your own personal financial plan and benchmarks will be much more in tune to answer the question "how am I doing." I can help with that. I work with clients to develop a plan for a work optional lifestyle.

The stock market has been under some pressure the past month. Political volatility, inflation, slightly weaker economic data, interest rates remaining at high levels - there is always something to worry about. So how do you know when the fears have subsided and the markets will get going again? We follow our 3-Step Stock Market Correction Playbook using the chart of the S&P 500 Index. What we're looking for: 1. Price above 21-Day Moving Average (Red Line) 2. Price makes higher high (Blue Line) 3. Momentum gets above 60 (Green Line) The April and May Correction is shown as an example of the last notable decline we experienced. On the right side is the current one we are in. Follow along with Leverage Financial Advisory for our Market Correction Updates! And for details and a step-by-step guide to our Market Correction Playbook, here's an article from our Leverage Charts Newsletter: https://lnkd.in/dWb7vS6d

As of market close on Friday, the Russell 1000 had fallen ~7% from its all-time high, while the “Magnificent 7” basket of technology stocks had dropped by more than 13%. With this week's stock selloff as U.S. markets digest similar trends developing in international markets, and concerns mount over the health of the U.S. economy - what do investors need to know? In this CIO FocusPoint, the Wealth CIO team addresses three key drivers that have sparked the recent increase in volatility across financial markets, and what might happen next. https://lnkd.in/eJsUqbz2

🌍Global stock index dips on earnings and Fed jitters - Reuters📉 Today's market update: Global stock indexes took a dip as investors reacted to mixed earnings reports and concerns about the Federal Reserve's policy. While many companies reported strong earnings, some missed the mark, leading to uncertainty among investors. Additionally, anxiety around the Federal Reserve's potential policy adjustments contributed to the market's cautious stance. As we continue to navigate market fluctuations, it's essential to stay informed and adapt our strategies. Whether you're an investor or an industry professional, keeping a pulse on these developments is crucial for making well-informed decisions. Stay tuned for more updates on market trends and insights. #StockMarket #Investing #GlobalEconomy https://ift.tt/UPrAp4N