Argus Media’s Post

Urea producers claim to be comfortable for now in terms of sales after the recent round of tenders. However demand remains weak, despite crop prices showing a small upturn this week. Unless solid demand emerges in the coming weeks, urea prices look set to decline during August. Beyond that, the outlook remains positive with prices expected to rise steadily from September through to the end of the year as Northern Hemisphere seasonal buying picks up. https://lnkd.in/dXyiCT7j

MAP has never been more expensive in Brazil vs urea and potash 🇧🇷 💹 MAP was priced at around the $630s/t up to $640/t cfr Brazil last week, which marks an 18% jump since the start of the year 📈 The price of MAP in Brazil is now pretty much double the average of urea and potash combined (ratio of 1.98:1 as of last week). The ratio stood at an average of 1.42:1 over the past decade or so. It's not too surprising that MAP would be at a premium, after all the focus in April-August is firmly on phosphates imports ahead of safra in September. But we're now nearing the end of the phosphates import window in Brazil and it's interesting to see such a stark premium over urea and potash, it's never been higher. The ratio was 1.39:1 a year ago. I've been wondering what this means, if anything, for urea for the rest of the year, with buying set to ramp up ahead of safrinha in Q1. Crop prices have plummeted this year and urea is comparatively expensive vs corn, which doesn't bode well for upcoming demand. Urea imports in Brazil were 3.64mn t in January-July, up by 5% on a year earlier. Soybeans front-month futures have been clobbered and are now at 3-year lows. Corn futures are similarly low at below $150/t. The ratio of cfr urea vs corn futures was 2.36:1 last week, the highest since end-February this year when urea was $390/t cfr. But urea now is approximately $40-45/t cheaper. The average between urea and corn over the past decade was 1.95:1. So what's in store -- MAP prices to come off? Urea to drop in 4Q? Or is a crop price rebound on the cards? Let me know your thoughts 🙏 Data from Argus Media - please reach out if you have any queries. #fertilizer #fertilizers #fertilizantes

🚢🌐In its latest report, Brazil’s grain exporters association, Anec, has revised its June forecast upward by 2.28 million tonnes to a total of 17.39 million tonnes. This increase is primarily driven by a 1.7 million tonne upward revision in soybean exports, complemented by a 390,000 tonne increase in soybean meal exports and a 190,000 tone rise in maize exports. After experiencing year-on-year declines for three consecutive months, June is projected to see a year-on-year increase of 125,000 tonnes. Overall, soybean exports are expected to remain above last year's levels for the same period and are on track to surpass last year's record of 101.3 million tonnes, according to Anec. Conversely, corn exports are anticipated to decline year-on-year, aligning with the export volume observed so far this year, which stands at 4.95 million tonnes compared to 8.24 million tonnes for the same period last year. 🚢🌐 #Intermodal #MaritimeIndustry #marketinsights #dailyreport #maritime #shippingindustry #tankersales #shipping #vessels

India's soybean market is primed for substantial expansion in 2023/24, buoyed by optimistic forecasts indicating a production potential of 12.1 to 14.97 million metric tones. Meanwhile, Brazil, Argentina, and the United States, major players in global production, set impressive precedents, shaping international trade dynamics. As a leading importer of vegetable oil, India's evolving preferences in soya oil imports reverberate across global supply chains. This shift, coupled with fluctuating refining margins, underscores the market's volatility, with soybean prices expected to oscillate between Rs. 4400 to Rs. 5000 per quintal. #shopkirana #direct #soyachunks #soyabean #kisankirana #kk #purity #soyabeanproduction DIRECT | Empowering Retailers

📰 #Rapeseed prices in #Ukraine are rising, despite falling canola prices 🤔 The mass harvesting of rapeseed in Ukraine has not yet started, but traders who have contracted significant volumes of rapeseed are actively raising purchase prices at the ports in order to accumulate the maximum lots, as the decrease in the harvest in the new season will significantly increase competition with processors.   🔎 During the week, export purchase prices for rapeseed in the Black Sea ports increased by $15-20/t to $430-450/t or UAH 19,000-20,400/t, which corresponds to the level of forward prices and contributes to the activation of sales by producers. Demand prices for rape with delivery to the Czech Republic and Romania are 430-440 €/t, and to Germany - 440-450 €/t, but deliveries are possible no earlier than September.   💡 Spike Brokers experts believe that 600-800 thousand tons were sold under forward contracts in Ukraine with delivery in July-January in all export directions. At the same time, domestic processors will not be able to compete with exporters and will be forced to expect a July price decrease under the pressure of increased supply.   🔎 Favorable weather in Canada is improving the outlook for the canola crop, putting pressure on prices. Thus, during the week on the exchange in Winnipeg, July canola futures fell by 0.8% to 600 CAD/t or $440/t (-12.2% for the month), and November - by 1% to 618 CAD/ t or $453/t (-12.1%). In the current season as of June 16, Canada exported 5.8 million tonnes of canola, down 21% from last year's pace, so unsold stocks are putting pressure on quotes as harvest approaches.   📈 On the Paris #MATIF, August rape futures rose 1% during the week to €462/t or $496/t (-6.2% on the month), supported by forecasts of a lower EU harvest, but still under pressure from falling prices on canola   💡 In the June report, the experts of the #MARS agency reduced the forecast of rapeseed yield in the EU in 2024/25 MR from 3.21 to 3.16 t/ha compared to May estimates, while the average 5-year indicator is 3.17 t/ha. Rains and low temperatures in Germany and France worsen the outlook for the harvest.   💡 According to the #FEDIOL association (oil and protein producers in the EU), in May rapeseed processing in the EU reached 1.576 million tons, which was 8.5% higher than the 5-year average. However, it will decrease in June as a result of carrying out regulatory work at oil factories, although in general in 2023/24 the EU countries + Great Britain will process more than 26 million tons of rapeseed. 📻 Source: https://lnkd.in/eiDAYDWq Best regards. Agricultural commodity trader, Oleg Shklovtsov.

Malaysian palm oil futures fell more than 2 per cent on Tuesday, marking their biggest drop in a month, due to an expected rise in stockpiles and tracking losses in rival soyoil, following better-than-expected crop conditions for the U.S. soybean crop. Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market. Palm oil stocks have risen in Malaysia, and to bring them down, exports need to pick up, which will happen only if prices correct, the dealer said. Palm oil inventories in Malaysia, the world's second-biggest producer, rose for a third consecutive month in June as exports slowed, while output fell from the previous month, a Reuters survey showed. Malaysia's palm oil stocks were seen at 1.83 million metric tons, up 4.53 per cent from May-end, according to the median estimate of 12 traders, planters and analysts polled by Reuters. https://lnkd.in/g9HYKDDf

These four stocks are looking fundamentally and technically strong. Consider these as my next picks: 1. Refex : 168 2. Chambal fertilizers : 422 3. Rpp infra : 130 4. Anant Raj : 364 #nse #bse #stockmarket #intraday

Soybean exports increased by 2,121 MT compared to the previous week, with cumulative exports up by 1.3% from last year. The top three countries we monitor represent 88.5% of global soybean exporters. USDA projects a 3.2% rise in total global soybean exports from last year, with a 2.17 MMT increase from the previous month's August projection. Corn exports saw a decrease of 209,000 MT from the previous week, but cumulative exports are up by 11.0% compared to last year. The seven countries we track contribute to 87.3% of global corn exporters. USDA forecasts a 10.2% increase in total global corn exports from last year and notes a record size. The August projection was raised by 1.23 MMT (0.6%) from the previous month. Wheat exports rose by 441,000 MT from the prior week, with cumulative exports up by 3.3% from last year. The eight countries we monitor account for 89.8% of global wheat exporters. USDA anticipates a 4.0% decrease in total global wheat exports from last year, with a 1.97 MMT (0.92%) increase from the August projection. For a detailed table of shipments from major exporters, email tierney@agresource.com.

On Wednesday, grain futures declined. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $6.93/bu ($254/mt; -1.1% compared to Tuesday). The July US corn contract closed at $4.55/bu ($179/mt; -1.6%). The September Euronext wheat contract closed at €263.25/mt ($284/mt; -0.6%).   A broad commodities sell-off, likely driven by external markets, put pressure on global grain prices. European wheat continued to decline, filling this week’s “Russian crop cuts” gap.   India plans to import wheat after a six-year halt to replenish domestic reserves. New Delhi is expected to remove the 40% import duty in June and reinstate it before wheat planting begins in October. Wheat imports could total 3-5 mmt.   Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced that the country will raise prices for subsidized bread from 5 to 20 piastres ($0.0042) starting in June. Check out our daily digest for more news insights: https://lnkd.in/gmhdBFGZ

🇪🇺🌾EU Commission in Jul report projects EU’s wheat production in 2024/25 MY at 120.8 MMT and export at 31.9 MMT. Ending stocks are seen at 10.7 MMT.   🇪🇺🌽Corn crop in 24/25 MY seen at 62.8 MMT, import – at 17.9 MMT and stocks – at 20.6 MMT.