ARiES One energy consultants ’s Post

Key Oil Pipeline May Spring Back To Life After Months-Long Stalemate Discussions between Iraq’s SOMO, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and Turkey’s BOTAS focus on resuming oil exports from the KRI to Turkey. The Iraqi Constitution's ambiguity has fueled disputes between the KRI and FGI over the authority to manage and sell oil and gas. Major geopolitical shifts, including Russia's influence and the U.S.'s diminished role, have played a crucial part in shaping Iraq's oil trade dynamics.

A year after the shutdown of the Iraq-Türkiye oil pipeline, the conduit that once handled about 0.5% of the global oil supply is still stuck in limbo as legal and financial hurdles impede the resumption of flows. According to the Iraqi Oil Ministry, foreign companies in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), a semi-autonomous entity controlling Iraq's north, share responsibility for the delay in restarting crude exports, as they have failed to provide revised contracts. #TürkiyeTrade #GTF2024 #GlobalTradeForum #EUTradeRelations #EuropeEconomy #TradeDiplomacy #TradeAlliance #GlobalCommerce #CrossBorderTrade #EconomicPartnership #TradeTalks #TürkiyeExports #EUTradePolicy #TradeCollaboration #InternationalTrade #TradePartners #EconomicIntegration #EuropeanUnion #TradeOpportunities #GlobalEconomy

#LaceysHouseAfrica #LaceysHouse #LaceysHouseNonprofit | #Khartoum says #SouthSudan will resume oil exports in two months Sudan announced on Friday that the export of South Sudan's crude oil through the Jabalyn pipeline via Port #Sudan will resume within two months. Malik Agar, Vice President of Sudan's Transitional Sovereign Council, highlighted significant efforts to restart oil exports in an interview with the #US-sponsored Eye Radio. According to a high-ranking source at the Ministry of Petroleum, initiatives are underway to resume production and exports via the Jabalyn pipeline. A South Sudanese diplomat with insight into the matter implicated American companies, suggesting their involvement in seeking international markets for crude oil sales. While Agar did not specify the actions being taken to facilitate the resumption of exports, observers with security and diplomatic expertise have referenced a deal between companies and the governments of South Sudan and Sudan. This deal aims to allow technicians access to repair and maintain facilities disrupted by recent conflicts. South Sudan relies heavily on oil exports through Sudan, but instability has persisted since internal conflicts erupted in April 2023. Efforts by regional and international actors to mediate and resolve the conflict have been sluggish, exacerbating the challenges faced by both nations. https://lnkd.in/escGCBTc

https://lnkd.in/e5VRx7iG Oil for rebuilding Iraq : Iraq climbs to 3rd largest oil supplier to China in June 2024 as China has stopped completely importing oil from the US. Iraq's oil exports to China's refineries surged in June, propelling the country to the 3rd supplier position just behind Russia & Saudi Arabia. China is the world’s largest crude oil importer, importing more than 11 million barrels daily. Almost half of this import need is supplied from Middle Eastern countries, although Russia is the single-largest supplier. Instead of establishing a military presence in the Middle East, China is pursuing a policy of expanding diplomatic contacts and increasing its influence, primarily through investments in the Belt and Road Initiative. In the words of the Chinese foreign minister, the aim is to preserve mutual interests without interfering in the internal affairs of countries. In relations with Iraq, efforts are being made to ensure that regional conflicts and crises do not affect shared economic interests, which are largely centered around oil. Iraq needs to preserve its oil trade, especially with China. Currently, 35 percent of Iraqi oil is imported by China, which imports about 1.2 million barrels of crude oil from Iraq daily. The fact that Chinese companies have won most of the contracts in recent awards of oil and gas exploration licenses in Iraq takes China-Iraq relations beyond the mere buying and selling of oil. China, which was already one of the leading operators of oil and gas fields in Iraq, has won the rights to exploit 10 more oil and gas fields in the recent licensing tenders. Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdulghani emphasized that the agreements will increase Iraq’s proven oil reserves to 160 billion barrels. Apart from these new awards, China Petroleum and Chemical Corp (Sinopec for short), is the leading operator of four other major oil fields in Iraq. China’s dominance in Iraq’s energy sector creates political interdependence between the two countries. The fact that Chinese companies are the leading operators of most of the fields in Iraq significantly impacts the amount of Iraq’s oil production and thus the oil revenues that constitute more than 90% of its economy. More than 20 companies, including European, Arab, and Iraqi groups, pre-qualified for the licensing tender. However, it was China that emerged as the largest single foreign licensee, winning the tender for 10 oil and gas fields. The fact that European companies remained in the background and the United States did not participate in the tender at all is a clear indication of the shifting dynamics in global energy. For instance, Exxon Mobil withdrew from the West Qurna oil field project in Iraq in February this year and transferred its operational activities to PetroChina, further highlighting this shift. There are currently no a single one US or British oil companies extracting oil in Iraq. Source : The Diplomat

Following Niger's refusal to open the Benin-Niger border, Benin's president Patrice Athanase Guillaume TALON taken a dim view of Nigerien oil passing through Benin to Nigeria. His expectations have not been there, hence he has gone so far as to threaten to block oil tankers from entering national waters to load oil that is supposed to pass through a pipeline from neighbouring Niger. He is not in a position to threaten Niger. Talon's Benin must reassure the brotherly country "Niger" that it will not be a channel for destabilizing Niger. If Niger behaves in a distrustful manner towards Benin, it is because Talon had shown African incivility after the coup d'état. As far as oil is concerned, it is with China that Benin will justify itself because this project has cost China 🇨🇳 more than $400 million. This threat is likely to be wind. Let Benin reassure Niger and everything will be better. #beni #niger #petrol

Russia Pushes for Improbable Resurrection of Kirkuk-Banias Oil Pipeline Efforts to resurrect the Kirkuk-Banias oil pipeline between Iraq and Syria have gained momentum in recent months with meetings between high-ranking officials of both countries, but the unstable political and security situation in Syria, particularly on the border with Iraq, the dispute between Baghdad and Erbil over Kirkuk’s oil (dating back to the spillover of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq), the dire security situation in Kirkuk, and the exorbitant cost to repair the pipeline seem insurmountable obstacles to revive it.  The desire to resurrect the pipeline connecting the OPEC-producing Iraq and the coastal Syrian city of Banias is spurred by Damascus’ need to enhance its energy supply and generate transit revenues in dollars, and Baghdad’s aim to diversify its avenues for international oil trade and reduce its reliance on the pipeline connecting Kikurk’s oil fields with the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

After the invasion EU and USA in Libya in 2011, crude production in Libya can’t reach the pre-war level. Under Gaddafi, production amounted to 230-240 thousand tons per day, after the attacks of the Europeans and Americans, it fell threefold and amounts 150 thousand tons per day. #Libya #USA #EU #oil #SealaTerminal #NationalOilCompany #AkakusOilOperation National Oil Corporation Akakus Oil Operation

Read the CIA's sanitized 2010 CIA "Khark Island [also known as Kharg Island]: Iran's Principal Oil Export" report (https://lnkd.in/d2nzmQ_M) to better understand Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's dilemma. Although this report is dated, it still explains the centrality of Kharg Island's oil terminal to Iran's economy. Without Kharg's petrochemical facilities, the Iranian economy crumbles. Now if as promised Khamenei retaliates against Israel for attacking the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, which resulted in the deaths of Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer, and six other Iranian military advisers, Israel will destroy the underground Fordo and Natanz nuclear enrichment facilities. But perhaps even more damaging, the Kharg petrochemical facilities will be reduced to rubble, and the Iranian rial will reel under the wreckage with no future possibility of funding Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis. Reuters reports that Iran has offered the US via Oman to undertake a "controlled", i.e. face-saving, response against Israel, but the US would have none of it (https://lnkd.in/dpEmm_xb). Of course, Iran would prefer to fight until the last Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi gunman, but Tehran's proxies are beginning to get wise to Khamenei's self-serving antics.

It will be interesting to see how this develops… The oil companies aim to capitalize on Iraq's vast oil reserves and reverse a trend that has seen Russia and China gain significant influence in the region.

Shared my perspectives on - Geopolitical conflicts in 2024 and beyond- boring or dramatic? - Kurdish oil pipeline remaining shutdown and dealing severe blow to KRG finances and relations with Baghdad - Uranium spot prices increasing four fold since 2020 to more than $100 per pound and reasons for this - President Erdogan’s foreign and domestic policies as well as what happens to the Black Sea gas discovery - Disruptione Red Sea, Suez, Panama and Malacca choke points driving longer journeys and higher costs …