You've got 12 months cash left Enough to breathe. Not enough to relax. You raised seed round. You now have 12 months to live. Or rather, 6 months, 3 months and 3 months 6️⃣ H1 -------> 🔵 split by a DECISION POINT 3️⃣ Q2 3️⃣ Q3 🔵 What is a Decision Point? → A lifejacket → Signed off by the Board → No approvals needed if triggered → A clear, understood, calculated, set of actions A simple 'if' formula (for those who like Excel) E.g. If by July, we do not have: → £x of revenue → £x of cash → x paying customers Then we will: → make £x of cuts → change our strategy to Y → initiate a fundraising process for £x. Remember, most start-ups don't starve, they drown. Wear your lifejacket. ***** If you enjoyed this, repost it for others ♻ follow me Asif Ahmed for more in the future
The reality of this kind of thing is so tricky though...I've tried this approach before on a couple of occasions with limited results; in my experience, most of the time, most things end up in the middle.... so in the 'not terrible, not excellent, but fine' territory. This is, of course, decision-wise the hardest space to be in; excellent or terrible results make for easy decisions. Its the 'okay' ones that make them hard. And what if (as is statistically very likely) your results are basically 'on' your decision point threshold?
Asif Ahmed the same principles / guidelines apply for later stage startups, although the option of M&A is also a viable one to be considered if fundraising appears challenging. Need plenty of time to prepare and run a competitive process for that too.
Can we make a new hashtag called #asifdoodles?
I love a good pre-decision: one where you make if this, then that so you don't have to start the decision making from scratch under stress. Combine it with a pre-mortems and/or some strategic wargaming and you'll be flying
Thanks for clarity
This is super smart as a framework. And I good reminder that you indeed have a decision to make "Keep on going exactly the same" is still a decision and needs to be intentional
🛟. Great framework. Do those timelines change depending on business size? I've been days away from running out of money several times. Luckily fallen the right side of the line at the last minute so far!
Love this! So important to be super focused and diligent on ‘the plan’ in those first 6 months vs spending precious energy / time ‘fear-casting’ about what might happen. Love how visual this is - super helpful 🙏 thanks for sharing Asif Ahmed 🙏
LOVE LOVE LOVEEEEEEEE
Head of Early Stage, Tech & High Growth | Advising venture backed founders.
6moAnother thing that strikes me here is there are definitely better and worse times in the year for your Q3 and Q4 to fall. E.g. if your Q3 is June, July, Aug or Q4 is Nov, Dec, Jan - you will almost always statistically find it more difficult to raise and/or pivot e.g. school holidays/Xmas etc.