There have been papers showing AI might be an equaliser, helping under-performers catch up. I'm skeptical this continues the next couple of years. In a new MIT paper about materials science, AI boosted the output of top researchers 80%, while the bottom third showed little gains. Why? The AI sped up idea generation, but the best human researchers were better at evaluating which ideas to pursue. I expect this dynamic to hold in other areas. And I expect there to be other dynamics that favour expert workers e.g. the best human managers will likely (on average) be better at specifying instructions for teams of AI agents. Overall I think we don't know whether the next generation of systems will be an equaliser or not. The paper: https://lnkd.in/ee53WUbD
I suppose if it were to be an equaliser, it might be more in areas where "knowledge" activities are currently a big part of the job but aren't necessarily the main activity that delivers value, and where the main activity is some way off automation. I am thinking for example of some roles in my (local gov) context, where people involved in very interpersonal services (like care or social work). The value of these services is ultimately in the kind of very tailored interpersonal activities they deliver (unlikely to be automated for some time, in case of some tasks possibly never), but staff need to spend lots of time doing things like writing case reports or interpreting dense new strategies from management. Could imagine there may be people who struggle with those tasks but are more talented at the tasks which really matter to service users.
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3moI find GenAI useful for idea generation, but as you observe, you have to know which ideas are rubbish and which show promise. In this sense, AI can enhance expertise but as yet isn't capable of replacing expertise. But I guess this has long been the case in machine learning, where you need both technical DS skills as well as domain knowledge to get meaningful output