Bernard Charnwut Chan’s Post

Transcript

Julia Chatterley spoke last week to Bernard Chan, a Hong Kong businessman and chairman of the Our Hong Kong Foundation, about the way forward. Listen. Stephen Roach, the former Asia head of Morgan Stanley, said recently Hong Kong is over. Quote, you're here, is Hong Kong over here? I'm an optimist, but it's not quite a tidy true. Those comments he made, He talked about three main things. He talked about three things. He talks about we probably been too dependent on China. Is it true? I mean, because China has amazing growth in the last 20-30 years, so Hong Kong benefited from. They rode that wave, yes. So of course now he has a bit of a downturn. So of course our, our stock markets, our sentiments also been affected by them today, of course. Then the other factor is the geopolitical tension between China and the US and truly that has an impact on Kong as well. But the last comment he made about Hong Kong and and it's actually wrong about Hong Kong's future as the one country 2 system, the separate system from China ended and that's this entirely wrong in fact President. He came to Hong Kong in 2022 and he reaffirmed that the separate system from the Chinese will continue in a way indefinitely. But he also emphasized on the legal system that separate system mainly is the total different separate legal system, different currency from the Chinese the currency. So those will remain intact. So I think you know he's factually wrong that the the so-called 2 system ended after the draconian law imposed in Hong Kong in 2019, OK. So this is the key and and the thing you've gone straight to the heart of it. Nobody believes that China is a sort of passive Big Brother that it was in the past. And this simplification of what is complicated, I think politics is that the Hong Kong is not separated now in the mainland. Whether it's for citizens that I've spoken to here, whether it's business leaders too from around the world, they're lumping them together and assuming that that two systems no longer exists. How do you ensure them that the rule of law here Hong Kong's rule of law. Still applies. Well first of all Chinese leaders in Beijing wants that system to remain. Well that's the key because why would they want another you know city like Shanghai or Sinjen. They want Hong Kong the special status because we this is the gateway for them to the world. So they want this the entire different legal system, the currency intact so it helps them. So they one so-called 1 country 2 system is not just good for Hong Kong, it's actually good for China. So Chinese leader in the last two years have repeatedly. To remind us that Hong Kong should stay international. However, we are one country, we are under one country, so there's no illusion that we are separate. You know, autonomous region, that's important. OK, that's important. So should we be talking about carving out Hong Kong within China and what it represents? The idea of the one Country 2 system is not easy to understand, not not for the international audience, even for our local Hong Kong people, for the young people here, I don't think they understand really what that means to do. They understand China exactly because we all, including myself, we're all being. Brought up in Hong Kong, it's an entirely different system. But the fact of the matter is China with 1.3 billion people, 400 million rising middle class, we need to understand not just Hong Kong, the whole world need to understand the needs of that 400 million rising middle class. But we are not brought up in such a way. So this is the challenge for Hong Kong people. We need especially our youth to understand that you may not have to agree with that system, but you need to understand what are the demands and the desire of that rising middle class in China. What does China ultimately want, then, from Hong Kong? In an ideal situation, what allows Hong Kong to exist in the way that it did before? To your point about some whether it was illusion or otherwise that that China's there, but it is that passive Big Brother because maybe this is not just a Hong Kong problem, it's a Chinese authority problem too and how they message what Hong Kong means to them today. Would you agree with that? I agree it's Hong Kong has security laws are what national security law. This week in 2019 we went way too far. Angelum swung way to challenge the solvency of China over Hong Kong. And that's a total no, no. You know, we are part of China, no doubt about that, but doesn't mean that we have to. And China allows Hong Kong to be different, but we are part of China. That's important. I was talking about the sort of response actually to what happened there being this pendulum has swung too far. Do you agree with that too? I do agree. And I think we are in a bit of a soul searching today to try to find that new identity for Hong Kong, partly not just because of the the new law. But I think more and more importantly is, are we still relevant, are we still remain competitive. So two issues here and now you look at Sinjen, our next door neighbor, you know they they the Sinjin, I know when I grew up is entirely very different from today. So yes, they are a competitor, but they also can be very complimentary to Hong Kong. I've spoken to a lot of Hong Kongers here since I've arrived that they go to Shenzhen and I was sort of looking at the economics and actually I believe the economy of Shenzhen now is is bigger than Hong Kong that is big. Competition, yes. And because our cost of living is too high, so things are way more affordable in the mainland. So I think what Hong Kong needs to do because we have been having such a good 20-30 years of good run. We now need to, I mean we are facing a crisis today but it's but Hong Kong have gone through many crises in the past and we always managed to rebound. And So what needs to do today is that we have to readjust ourselves and we have to stay relevant and find our new competitive edge and we do. We were still going to be remain as a major aviation hub in in the region and now we have a very new emerge arson culture hub right and together with financial center. So I think we can still remain very competitive. In the region and the key thing is how can we continue to serve the Chinese market. That's the key right there with the rising 400 million middle class, their needs are very different. There are some needs that they will get from onshore in the mainland, but there are needs that they would want to come out offshore and you're mainland isn't coming here in particular too. And I think that's an important sort of piece of the jigsaw puzzle that people need to understand the need to train journey exactly because they need choices. There are choices that they can get onshore their choices they. Want to get offshore, not just Hong Kong but also throughout the region. So the whole region actually benefited from China's economic growth.