BigTentUSA’s Post

Just a poll - do with it what you like. But it may explain the insane focus on Orange Man Bad instead of policies. This poll conducted by Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies/NBC News - so no right wing bias here. But is it an outlier? What do other polls (none from right wing outlets) say: - NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist: A majority of independent voters believe Biden is a greater threat to democracy than Trump. - ABC News/Ipsos: Trump is in a dead heat with Biden among suburban women. - USA Today/Suffolk University: Among Hispanics, Trump leads Biden by five points (39-34 percent). - Wall Street Journal: 30 percent of black men and 11 percent of black women intend to vote for Trump. - New York Times: Trump and Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds. What it suggests is that people are starting to focus on policies, not party. That is a good thing for America - who could disagree with that? If you like things the way they are then by all means vote for politicians that support current policies, that is what freedom is all about. Stay strong, stay free

Polls show Kamala more likely to win. Statistically speaking it means nothing - why because polls results (even if the polls are designed objectively, collected properly) have statistical chance of the opposite happening. I mean if A has a 70% chance of winning is the same as the A has 30% chance of losing. That is why the best polls are exit polls. "“We have seen this movie before,” said McInturff. “They can get squishy on Trump, and then in the end they come back and they vote the way they’re going to vote on a Republican-versus-Democrat preference for Congress.” The problem with exit polls - they do not account for mail in voters and early voters.

In a recent Ipos poll, Kamala Harris has taken a lead over Donald Trump, garnering 47% of support compared to Trump's 40% in the race for the upcoming U.S. presidential election on November 5. Harris's advantage reflects a slight increase from previous polls, as she appears to be countering Trump's traditional strengths in economic matters, where both candidates remain closely matched among voters. Despite her lead in national figures, key battleground states crucial for securing the presidency are still highly competitive, with polling indicating that voters are divided on their views regarding the economy and job creation. The poll indicates that while voters are increasingly backing Harris, significant challenges remain, particularly as Trump retains strong support on economic issues. As both candidates ramp up their campaigns, they are focusing on the economy, the foremost concern for voters, with each offering distinct plans to address the economic landscape. The ongoing dynamics suggest a tightly contested race as Election Day approaches, with pivotal implications for the country's political future. Read full news at https://lnkd.in/ddsY3Nsm #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #USPresidentialElection #2024Election #PollResults #ElectionPoll #EconomicIssues #RegisteredVoters #BattlegroundStates #Voting #VoterSentiment #PoliticalPolls #HarrisVsTrump #ElectionStrategy #VoterTurnout #PoliticalCampaign #PublicOpinion #CampaignPromises #FiveThirtyEight #ElectoralCollege

New poll bad news for Kamala. Nate Silver FiveThirtyEight on Substack: "The NYT poll has reduced Harris’s lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points, and even the YouGov polls were worse for her than our previous averages in each state. Our convention bounce adjustment is hurting Harris in our forecast." "The flip-flopping may explain why Harris has been weirdly reluctant to do media hits or articulate policy specifics. This strategy may have worked well enough when she was riding high off the vibes of the Democrats’ candidate swap, but it’s causing her more problems now." "NYT/Siena poll contained a pair of questions on whether voters think Harris is too liberal/progressive and whether Trump is too conservative. The numbers were lopsided in Trump’s favor. Only 32 percent of voters said Trump was too conservative, while 47 said Harris was too liberal. The demographics on this question are about what you might expect. Harris is faring poorly among white voters without college degrees, rural voters, and older voters: the types of voters who are plentiful in Blue Wall states like Pennsylvania." "I’m not quite sure how Harris is supposed to spin her way out of this perception." "She should campaign like she’s two points behind — because if the Times poll is right, she is." Read Silver's analysis. And more from Daily Mail News: "Liberal pollster predicts blowout victory for presidential candidate ahead of ABC debate." https://mol.im/a/13827081 "Nate Silver's prediction places the Republican hopeful's chances of winning the electoral college vote at 63.8 percent, compared to 36 percent for Harris." #kamala #kamalaharris #trump #polls

Check out the results of the 9th Annual BWR/ESSENCE "Power of the Sister Vote" Poll, conducted by @HITStrategies https://lnkd.in/eki4zuE2

LATEST: Our MRG Michigan Poll® reveals key insights into Michigan's political landscape, with Donald Trump gaining significant support among union voters. This increase underscores the evolving priorities and sentiments within Michigan’s union communities compared to the spring, capturing a trend that could be pivotal in the upcoming election. At Marketing Resource Group, reliable data and insights to inform public discourse is at the core of what we do. Check out the full article here: https://lnkd.in/esxUnHfz

https://lnkd.in/efNz3e2z below set of data and Nate Silver 538 posted yesterday( Biden will win in November) its the only practical choice and he's lucid in control and IN CHARGE.might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden’s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5. In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators. Today these indicators suggest an outcome closer to a 3-point Biden win — clear in the opposite direction of national polls.

Election Year Jitters: Real Estate Market Reality Check 📊 Many are anticipating a slowdown in economic growth leading into the upcoming election. But what about the real estate market? 🤔 Here's a data-driven perspective: ✅ Limited Correlation: Since 2014, there's no clear cause-and-effect link between presidential elections and real estate performance. 🙅♂️ ✅ Bigger Drivers: Interest rates, inflation, and housing inventory hold greater sway over the market. 📈📉🏠 ✅ Uncertainty Factor: Election years can be marked by economic unease, but data doesn't show a consistent impact on real estate trends. 🤷♂️ The Takeaway: While election years spark policy discussions in Washington, the real estate market seems less influenced by political cycles and more responsive to core economic factors. 🔐 What are your thoughts on the upcoming election and the housing market? #RealEstate #ElectionYear #MarketTrends #DataDrivenInsights

In the months leading up to November 5th, as more voters struggle with choosing the lesser of two evils for President, I suspect that many uncommitted voters will become more anxious after reading mainstream media headlines and maybe their stories. For instance, compare the Independent’s headline “Nikki Haley’s warning to Trump and Biden resurfaces after president exits 2024 race” at https://lnkd.in/gek4mNs2 verses Newsweek’s headline “Nikki Haley's Election Prediction Comes Back to Haunt Her” at https://lnkd.in/gZeXwCh4 . Media companies love to generate controversary to increase clicks and revenues. I would rate the Independent’s headline as news worthy and Newsweek’s as click bait. The best way to influence media companies is to avoid clicking on links to sensationalized headlines. Another possibility to reduce anxiety is to go camping in the Sierra Nevadas where there is no internet connection: sort of like an ostrich sticking its head in the ground. Or, get involved by helping to change partisan politics in America to reduce it by 2026 mid-terms and 2028 presidential elections. If 43% of American voters identify as independent according to Gallop ( https://lnkd.in/gBfgQSCQ. ) in 2024, encouraging a candidate like Nikki Haley to run as a write-in candidate may help to start reducing anxieties for many Americans. A write-in candidate would be like the third ring in Amazon’s mini-series "The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power".  It would help encourage partisan politicians to stop polarizing issues to divide Americans and start solving issues to represent, serve, and protect more than 70% of Americans.

In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, millions of undecided voters stood between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. This news focuses on several categories: low-information voters, "double haters"—voters who detest both candidates—and independents who prioritize economic issues. According to the article, some people find Trump's prior economic performance appealing, whereas Harris faces difficulties with recognition and policy clarity, particularly regarding financial issues. In other words, Harris should offer more thorough and detailed proposals to persuade uncertain voters, while Trump should concentrate on his economic record. However, I have some questions on this news. 1. Are economic concerns overemphasized in this news? The reason why voters are undecided is mainly due to the economic policies. Could other issues, like social issues, play a more important role than the economy in their final decision? 2. Why do so many voters view Harris’ policy as vague? Will it be the result of media coverage or their communication strategies? 3. Do Trump and Harris face double standards? According to the news, Trump should tone down his language and stop propagating misconceptions, while Harris should present more precise economic solutions. This raises the question of whether each candidate is evaluated under a double standard. Trump's behavior is criticized, yet some voters approve of his policies. Harris, on the other hand, is evaluated solely based on her policy specifics, with little emphasis on her character or leadership. #TrumpVsHarris #UndecidedVoters #DoubleHaters #EconomicPolicies