Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute’s Post

My recent piece for Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute discusses the impact of South Korea's K-Silk Road Initiative on energy and trade sectors in Central Asia. In summary: - In June 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol conducted a tour of Central Asia in which he visited Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to initiate the new K-Silk Road programme and secure agreements on enhancing Korea-Central Asian cooperation in energy, transportation and technology sectors. - The K-Silk Road aims to improve South Korea’s access to raw materials and critical minerals in Central Asia via several memorandums of understanding on lithium and uranium exploration opportunities for Korean semiconductor manufacturers while also providing Central Asian partners with alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). - While Yoon’s new initiative is likely to aid in Central Asia’s high speed railway and telecommunications industry development, the K-Silk Road is unlikely to significantly diversify Central Asia’s multi-vector foreign policy as China’s BRI will likely remain the dominant partner in regional development projects. Give it a read below:

For decades, Russia, China, and the West have been vying for influence in Central Asia. But in spite of their ambitions to bolster their presence in this strategically important region, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan are focused on enhancing regional ties to their own advantage. Russia – once a major actor in Central Asia – has somewhat lost its foothold in the region as a result of the war in Ukraine. China, Türkiye, and the European Union now seek to strengthen their positions in Central Asia. Energy resources are of great importance to each, given that the region holds around 20% of the world’s uranium reserves, 17.2% of oil, and 7% of natural gas. https://lnkd.in/eWTiddFS

Kazakhstan leverages middle power status with West, China, Russia

🌍 Once the heart of international commerce, Central Asia is poised for a historical comeback as the reshuffle of global supply chains draws the world's attention back to its ancient crossroads. 🌍 In the midst of the global reorganization of supply chains, emerging economies have a unique opportunity to enhance their strategic positions and economic development. Kazakhstan, at the center of the Eurasian landmass, is setting an example of how it can effectively capitalize on these changes. Kazakhstan’s natural resources and strategic location make it a vital partner for both Eastern and Western powers. 🌐 It is no coincidence that its capital, Astana, was chosen by Xi Jinping to announce the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. By investing in joint ventures, mining, infrastructure projects, and collaborating on sustainability initiatives, EU governments and firms are also aiming to influence and contribute to the country’s economic development. 💼🌱 Kazakhstan's geopolitical importance can be leveraged to boost the country’s renewable energy generation capacity, especially in wind power. 🌬️ By 2030, Kazakhstan aims for renewables to comprise 15% of its power generation, with a long-term goal of reaching 50% by 2050 🌞 With investors from both the West and the East competing for influence in the global expansion of renewable energy, and with a vast untapped wind power potential, it is not hard to see how Kazakhstan could become a pivotal player in the green transition of the regional energy landscape. 🔋 #SupplyChain #GlobalTrade #Kazakhstan #InvestmentOpportunities #EconomicGrowth #Geopolitics #Eurasia #Sustainability #ResourceSecurity

G3Insights.com - SitRep: Record-Breaking #Russian #Energy Supplies to #China Russian energy supplies to China soared to unprecedented levels in 2023, signaling robust cooperation between the two nations despite challenges posed by Western #sanctions. According to Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov, energy #trade between Russia and China reached historic highs, with significant increases observed across various sectors including #oil, #coal, #pipeline, and liquefied natural #gas (#LNG). This surge underscores the pivotal role of energy cooperation as a driver of practical interaction between the two countries. The momentum in energy collaboration was further highlighted by #Gazprom's continuous setting of new gas #export records to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline. Deliveries through this pipeline have consistently exceeded contractual obligations, with Gazprom renewing the historical record of daily deliveries multiple times since the beginning of the year. The Power of Siberia pipeline, operating under a long-term gas purchase and sale agreement between Gazprom and CNPC, has been instrumental in facilitating the steady flow of Russian gas to China. Looking ahead, the commitment to advancing joint energy projects remains unwavering, as affirmed by Russian and Chinese leaders during discussions. Despite external pressures, both nations reaffirmed their dedication to promoting major Russian-Chinese energy ventures. This resilience underscores the #strategic significance of energy cooperation in bolstering #bilateral relations and circumventing external challenges. The implications of record-breaking energy supplies between Russia and China extend beyond bilateral #economic interests to broader #geopolitical dynamics. As the world's largest energy consumer, China's increasing reliance on Russian energy resources reshapes #global energy #markets and geopolitical equations. Moreover, enhanced energy cooperation between Russia and China serves as a counterbalance to Western sanctions, signaling their determination to forge ahead with mutual interests despite external pressures. In conclusion, the surge in Russian energy supplies to China underscores the deepening economic and geopolitical ties between the two nations. As energy cooperation continues to flourish, it not only strengthens bilateral relations but also reshapes global energy dynamics and geopolitical alignments. #Analysts and #policymakers should closely monitor these #developments, recognizing the profound implications for regional #stability and global energy #security. Follow G3Strat for more #updates, and join G3Insights.com for access to in-depth #geostrategic and #geopolitical #research and #analysis.

RUSSIA & CIS BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL NEWSWIRE, RUSSIA & CIS GE ... #cis #russia #emergingmarkets #kazakhstan #oil #gas #equityresearch #fixedincome #portfoliomanager Eastern Economic Forum 2024 to be held on Sept 3-6 VLADIVOSTOK. Nov 24 (Interfax) - The Ninth Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) has been scheduled for September 3-6, 2024, the press service for the Roscongress Foundation said. "Obviously, the forum agenda will include the fulfillment of the Russian president's orders on socioeconomic development of regional infrastructure," the press service quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Presidential Representative to the Far Eastern Federal District Yury Trutnev as saying. In turn, Russian presidential advisor, Executive Secretary of the Eastern Economic Forum Anton Kobyakov described the forum as a significant platform for discussing Russian initiatives for the Asia Pacific region and such international bodies as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

According to recent news, the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline, connecting Russia's western gas fields with China, is facing delays. For many political reasons, this project has been a top priority for Moscow for over a decade. Its significance heightened after the European Union curtailed gas imports from Russia in response to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This colossal undertaking spans 3,550 kilometers, with 950 kilometers passing through Mongolian territory. The anticipated commencement of the project was set for 2024. The specific causes behind the delay remain unclear. However, both Russia and China have yet to agree on critical details concerning the necessary infrastructure. This impasse necessitates further economic studies to facilitate progress. Lets think for a moment! The significance of this issue lies in its role as Russia's avenue to sustain a substantial gas output for its major customer, China. Amidst the uncertainty surrounding the situation in Ukraine, Moscow is expected to take strategic actions to balance the impact of restrictions on its imports and exports to other nations. Addressing this matter is crucial, given that decisions are often driven by narrow interests rather than a collective effort to prevent destruction, loss of innocent lives, and global disruptions. While we hope for a positive outcome, this delay underscores the complex dynamics shaping the contemporary world. Unfortunately, the realities we face today often present challenges beyond our control. Source: https://lnkd.in/dwwHsW2a #russia #china #geopolitics #energyindustry #market #future

The “Russia-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan Gas Union” stands at a pivotal crossroads, symbolizing a significant shift in Central Asian energy dynamics. Initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, this trilateral alliance aims to transport Russian gas to Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan, marking a historical moment as it is the first time Russian gas is pumped toward Central Asia. However, the union faces scrutiny and cautious participation from Uzbekistan, reflecting the complex geopolitical and economic implications of this energy project. This development, arising amidst acute energy challenges in the region, seeks to address immediate needs but also poses long-term geopolitical and economic questions for the involved nations.

⚡️ Focus Asia Paper: Japan’s Energy Security in the Persian Gulf: Caught Between New and Old Challenges, by Alexandre Brans: 🔎 The goal of this paper is to investigate the evolution of Japan’s energy strategy in the Persian Gulf and understand how intra-Asian competition for business opportunities in the region can impact Tokyo’s energy security. It analyzes the current state of defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) between leading East Asian and Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC). 🤝 DCAs are considered among the most relevant tools available to states to build up strategic partnerships. Successful DCAs with GCC states are therefore an indicator of political and security commitment. 💡 "The advantage of DCA commitments between East Asian and Gulf states is twofold. On the one hand, it offers additional opportunities for oil dependent East Asian countries to boost their energy imperatives. On the other, considering the growing perception of security instability in world politics, it strengthens the military security capabilities and resolve of GCC countries."

Proposed Russian Pipeline to China Hits Roadblock as Mongolia Excludes it from National Plan The Power of Siberia-2 project, which aimed to deliver 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually, has been under discussion for years. However, Mongolia's exclusion of the project from its national plan indicates a potential delay or even cancellation. Read it here ▶ https://lnkd.in/eCk_SrnR #pipelinejournal #pipelinenews #pipelineindustry #pipelines #Russia #China #Mongolia