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#highcountrystaffing2024 US added 303K jobs in March The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March — many more than expected — signaling continued strength in the labor market. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Friday's Labor Department report to show that public and private payrolls rose by 215,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8%, from 3.9%, last month. Faster jobs growth may add to wage and price pressures the Federal Reserve has been fighting. The central bank, which has maintained interest rates at a 23-year high since July, said it’s waiting for inflation to be firmly on the wane before lowering borrowing costs. 🤙 303.731.7434 or 📩 kristen@highcountrystaffing.com

Today’s US payrolls report indicated continued strength in the labor markets. The December jobs report showed 216,000 adds for the month, and the unemployment rate staying steady at 3.7%. These kinds of numbers will make the fight against inflation more challenging and likely persuade the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer. However, it does backstop MoneyLetter’s view of a “soft landing” for the US economy, which would be good for stocks later in 2024.

Great post! Rule #1 of data science = “the average is always a lie”. So much of the economy - govt employees including courts and prisons, healthcare, police, fire, teachers unions, … as well as Unionize sports (ALL!) - baseball players MLB, NFL, NBA, and Hollywood. None of these fluctuate with Economy. Only 50% or less ever has any fluctuation. One has to looj under the hood and break thru the top line numbers. Here Neil Dutta shows Unemployment already up from 2.4% to 4.1% and skyrocketing bc of Powell policy. What is the inflation rate to an Unemployed person? #inflation #unemployment #datascience #rates #FED #federalreserve #Powell #ratecuts #dataanalysis #USEconomy #jobs

The U.S. economy added way more jobs than expected in September, suggesting the future pace of interest-rate cuts may be gradual. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, and figures for August and July were revised higher. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, and wage growth accelerated to a four-month high. The market snapshot was taken before Hurricane Helene. The jobs market is central to the Federal Reserve’s decisions about how far and how fast to bring down interest rates. The central bank next meets in November — after one more jobs report.

Jobs report came out and beat expectations by a significant margin. Unemployment came in at 3.8%. What does this mean for rates? Well, if inflation starts to tick up then we're looking at rate cuts being pushed out or potentially having another rate hike put back on the table. "US payrolls rose in March by the most in nearly a year and the unemployment rate dropped, pointing to a strong labor market that’s powering the economy." "Nonfarm payrolls advanced 303,000 last month following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%." "Treasury yields rose and S&P 500 index futures pared gains while the dollar moved higher. Traders trimmed bets on the odds the Federal Reserve will lower rates in June." #rates #jobs #inflation #economy #cuts https://lnkd.in/gMtQJHwR

"Wow." That's how we all reacted to the January jobs report. It was another surprise- payrolls were up 353,000 last month, blowing past all economist forecasts. And revisions to prior months added more than 100,000. As you look through the report, the good news piles up: wages skyrocketed, nearly all sectors added jobs, the participation rate for prime-age workers was up, unemployment rate remains near a historic low...this doesn't look like a slowing economy and far from one headed for a recession. Market futures immediately fell and bets for a May rate cut were pushed to June- just a few weeks ago investors thought the Fed would start cutting in March. Labor strength means consumer spending strength means well-supported economic growth- great to Americans but throws a bit of a wrench into the Fed's hopes for weakening inflation pressures. https://lnkd.in/e-JTZbUu

For the Fed, today’s employment report is not a close call. The unemployment rate has climbed three months in a row to a fresh high of 4.1 percent. No, the Sahm Rule has not been triggered, but why wait that long? The last time the unemployment rate rose three months in a row was in 2016, when the Fed backed off hikes. Payroll growth has slowed and with downward revisions to recent months, the trend is softer than initially thought. The three-month moving average on nonfarm payrolls is 177,000, the slowest in over two years. To review, unemployment is up and payroll growth has slowed. The risks are in one direction and the Fed ought to lean against those risks. That is there job. So, either the Fed cuts in July, a nontrivial possibility if core inflation is soft next week, or uses the July meeting to strongly signal a cut is coming in September.

The US 10-year Treasury note yield fell below the 4.3% threshold, extending the sharp drop from the one-month high of 4.47% touched on July 1st as the latest jobs report supported the view that the Fed will commence its cutting cycle in September. Non-farm payrolls rose more than expected in June, but aggressive downward revisions to payroll counts from April and May added to recent evidence that the US labor market is softening. The jobs report also showed that wage growth slowed to a three-year low and that the official unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%. On top of that, earlier data showed that continuing unemployment claims rose for a ninth week to its highest since 2021, underscoring the difficulty of finding new employment. Nearly 75% of the market has positioned for the Fed to deliver a rate cut in September, while over 70% expects more than one rate cut this year.

*Labor Markets In Transition* Businesses are still adding to payrolls but not as indiscriminately. Shortly after this release, markets were pricing in a slightly higher chance of a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting compared to yesterday’s pricing. However, our view is the Fed will likely cut by 25 basis points and reserve the right to be more aggressive in the last two meetings of the year. Expect volatility like we are seeing today in 10-year yields as investors adjust expectations.  Key Takeaways: *August payrolls were buoyed by the construction and health care sectors. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%.  *July’s estimate was revised down to 89,000 and is indicative of growing hesitation for business to hire at the same pace as earlier this year.  *The number of individuals working part time for economic reasons was 4.8 million in August, up 600,000 from last year and higher than the pre-pandemic average.  *Multiple job holders as a percent of employed individuals were unchanged at 5.3%, matching the pre-COVID-19 high.  *Temp help workers continue to fall, a sign of weakness in the job market. LPL Financial LPL Financial - Research