Bloomberg Intelligence’s Post

Euro-zone wage growth slowed to 3.6% in Q2, down from 4.7% in Q1, strengthening the case for the ECB to lower interest rates next month. #EuroZone #ECB #InterestRates #economy #Inflation #Paytm #IREDA #WealthRedefine #RedefineWealth #mutulafunds #Investment #IndiaEconomy #PortfolioManagement #investmentopportunities #hiring #megahiring #portfoliostrategies #mnc #mnccompany #mnccompanies #mncjobs #mncjob #jobs #job #opening #company #Bloomberg

The slowdown in growth in negotiated wages in the eurozone, to 3.6% (from 4.7% annual in Q1) looks supportive of further rate cuts. The ECB has been watching wage pressures closely. The ECB's macro projections from June were for negotiated wage growth 'to increase in 2024, before easing gradually'.

Despite the rate #cut, the “bump in the road” resulting from the near-term upward revision of wage, labour cost, and core #inflation pressures seems to have made the #ECB less inclined towards further cuts in the near term. September is now more likely than not a #skip, in my view, although I still expect five cuts by end-25. To use a D-Day analogy, the ECB has landed in rate cut country, but may not be moving off the beaches soon. Link to my latest Substack in the comments 👇 Subscribe for free, comment, share. #globalmacro #centralbanks #rates #fx

"Officials have singled out data on wage developments in the first quarter as particularly important in judging the strength of underlying inflation." This is silly. There is no real evidence of a wage-price spiral in most of Europe. European inflation has mainly come from the supply side. It is also a silly thing to say when the last 15 years have seen appalling wage growth in Europe - with negative consequences for households and the wider economy. This is the key reason for post-GFC underperformance. Mario Draghi reflected on this in his recent speech that called for "radical change" in Europe: "The approach we took to competitiveness in Europe after the sovereign debt crisis seemed to prove his point. We pursued a deliberate strategy of trying to lower wage costs relative to each other and, combine this with a procyclical fiscal policy, the net effect was only to weaken our own domestic demand and undermine our social model." https://lnkd.in/dU8DWD9c It is time to stop with this silly fear about wage growth in countries that have seen no real wage growth for years.

Hey everyone! Check out this insightful article on how the US Dollar is holding steady as we head into Nonfarm Payrolls revisions. It's a must-read for anyone keeping an eye on the currency market. #USD #forextrading #economy [Link to the article] https://ift.tt/Nncky94

🇪🇺 EURUSD heading towards the 1.0900: The first interest rate cut may not occur this spring, as economic indicators and the ECB's stance on wage trends suggest otherwise. The likelihood of a rate cut in April is diminishing, potentially buoying EUR/USD closer to the 1.0900 mark in the coming week.

European politics to the fore over the weekend, as President Macron called a snap election. Nervousness of far-right gains has crept in, and Sterling-Euro has moved up to its highest since August 2022. GBP has gained for four consecutive weeks vs the Euro, so could this be a fifth? Last Thursday’s ECB meeting went as expected, causing little movement at all despite the telegraphed rate cut. Meanwhile a buoyant US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday for May took 0.8% off Sterling-Dollar, thus erasing all weekly gains. The Federal Reserve deliver their latest monetary policy this week. Read more in the latest Aston market update here: https://lnkd.in/dPT6DTBs #astoncm #marketupdate #fxnews

European politics took centre stage as President Macron called a snap election, causing nervousness about far-right gains and pushing the Sterling-Euro exchange rate to its highest since August 2022. Despite a telegraphed rate cut from the ECB, which saw little market movement, the Euro weakened further due to election uncertainties. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report for May showed strong job growth, erasing Sterling-Dollar gains and reducing the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest cuts. In the UK, economic data was mixed, with strong PMI figures but a slight drop in house prices. The upcoming week features significant economic releases and central bank announcements. Read the full market update below. #Aston #FXnews #MarketUpdate

Since 2016, the main policy rate for the BOJ has been stuck at -0.10%. But with improved wage negotiations, markets are expecting a 0.10% rate hike this week from the BOJ, the first hike since 2007. Learn more in our Weekly Market Commentary: https://hubs.li/Q02qg4Xx0

We’ll be focusing on the EUR today with the release of the ECB survey of wage negotiations in Europe. This is seen as one of the key factors for the ECB in deciding when to cut interest rates, and anything to suggest an earlier rate cut this year, will likely cause EUR weakness. Markets are currently pricing the first rate cut for June. #euro #comingup #ecb #interestrates #ratecuts #news #updates