❔What if the winners of #euro2024 were decided by players market value?
❔What if each national team could field every player at their prime?
❔Which EURO 2024 group is the most valuable?
To all my friends and followers interested in ⚽, check out this and more of my posts that are coming soon!
Using Transfermarkt GmbH & Co. KG market values, I crunched the numbers to find the average player value for each country. Then, I ran a simulation where the higher-valued team wins every match. I ranked the third-placed teams by their average team value.
🏆In this scenario, England wins EURO 2024, beating Portugal in the final. Football is coming home!
🏆France, which has the second most valuable squad, gets knocked out by England in the semi-finals.
🏆Poland finishes 4th in their group. We're just 1.1 million EUR per player short of beating Austria. The same gap exists between the Czech Republic and Georgia in Group F.
🏆If Poland was in Group A, E, or F instead of one of the 3rd or 4th place teams, they’d make it to the knockout stage
🏆This method correctly predicts 50% (12/24) of the exact positions at the end of the group stage and 81% (13/16 ) teams overall that advance from the groups.
🏆The most valuable group on average is Group D (24.5 million EUR per team). The least valuable? Group E (just 11.9 million EUR per team).
🏆According to #OddsPortal data, betting on match favorites based on team value would yield a staggering -19.7% return. Don’t do gambling kids.
Football fans are sentimental beasts. We love reminiscing about our favorite players in their prime. I wondered what would happen if every player at EURO 2024 could magically return to their prime. Here’s how the tournament would look.
🏆Football is coming home again. The English squad, with an insane average of 68.1 million EUR per player, wins the EURO.
🏆Right behind them are Les Bleus, missing the win by just 0.4 million EUR per player!
🏆The group and knockout stages look the same, except Poland advances from the group instead of Austria
🏆Betting on the "sentimental" favorites would yield a -25,1% return.
Few final remarks.
1. Craig A. Depken, II & Tomislav Globan (2020) point to a significantly higher fee premium among players coming to the English league (this doesn’t fully overlap with English players, but the direction is correct).
2. This is not a predictive model, but rather a fun-fact what-if scenario
3. I got comments suggesting to use age-correction. To some extent, the prime-time analysis adjusts for age (not perfectly obviously). Thomas Peeters (2018) pointed out that values from Transfermarkt are better predictors of national team success than FIFA and ELO points, which are insensitive to age.
Which teams and formations lost the most value over time? How does the age of players factor in? Stay tuned for the next posts!
Disrupting Market Research with AI | Automated Qualitative Research at Scale | Digital Marketing Manager at Bolt Insight
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