As we are now halfway through one of the worst months at the global box office in recent memory, I wanted to share this incredibly insightful reporting from Scott Mendelson on the death of the "Oscar Bump."
Though the Academy is often criticized for awarding movies the masses don't see, Best Picture winners have historically hit high earnings marks at a consistent clip.
From 2010 to 2020, 7 of the 10 Academy Awards' Best Picture winners cleared at least 100 million dollars at the worldwide box office; 5 of those 7 hit totals greater than 160 million. More often than not, the word of mouth awards prestige generated was enough to quadruple returns on production budgets.
The box office decline precipitated by Covid has only accelerated a prestige market grappling with shorter theatrical windows, streamer dominated festival circuits, and carriage licensing deals between those same streamers and specialty distributors.
Barbie and Oppenheimer are more likely exceptions to current market conditions, rather than the return to awards season normalcy I and other chronically online cinephiles were hoping for.
If you've got a second... give Scott a read!
So in other words, the "Oscar bait" strategy of dropping a movie in the last week of December to qualify for awards and push it in Jan/Feb on word of mouth- is done?
Thanks for sharing! Love Puck News and Scott Mendelson. Absolutely agree that the Oscar bump is not likely to return especially with most people just waiting to watch through streaming.
Excellent repost by Brendan Walker at MediaLink about the decline of the “Oscar Bump” film! The original article was written by Scott Mendelson of Puck News.
This conversation begs a deeper exploration, particularly concerning the opportunities and implications for Black creatives in an era where the conventional mechanisms of movie production and the monopolistic grip of narrative control by the industry’s elite are increasingly challenged.
For Black creatives, who have long been marginalized by an industry that favors narratives that are often disconnected, oversimplified, or outright dismissive of the richness and complexity of Black experiences, this shift represents a beacon of hope. The decline of the “Oscar Bump” film signals a crack in the once-impenetrable facade of an industry that has historically prioritized a narrow range of stories, perspectives, and storytellers.
The unexpected success of films like “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” underscores a pivotal turning point: the audience’s power to redefine success in cinema, beyond the narrow confines of studio endorsements or celebrity-driven narratives. “Barbie,” in particular, serves as a testament to the transformative potential of film, challenging preconceived notions and sparking meaningful conversations among viewers, young and old alike. It exemplifies how movies, at their core, are about humanity, dialogue, and the diverse tapestry of human experiences, rather than the corporate or elitist agendas that have long dominated the industry.
For Black creatives, this evolution opens up new avenues for storytelling that were previously deemed unviable or unmarketable by mainstream studios. The democratization of content creation, fueled by advancements in technology such as AI for short-form video production and scriptwriting, presents an unprecedented opportunity for Black voices to be heard, stories to be shared, and narratives to be redefined on their own terms.
This is not to say that the path forward is without its challenges. However, the changing landscape of the film industry, coupled with the global market’s growing indifference to the traditional gatekeepers of cinematic acclaim, indicates that the barriers to entry for Black creatives are not as insurmountable as they once were. It calls for a collective effort to leverage these shifts, foster inclusive storytelling, and ensure that the narratives of Black creatives are no longer sidelined but are celebrated and integrated into the fabric of global cinema.
In essence, the decline of the “Oscar Bump” film not only marks the end of an era but heralds the beginning of a more inclusive, diverse, and authentic cinematic world where Black creatives have the opportunity to carve out their own space, tell their own stories, and redefine the narrative on their own terms.
As we are now halfway through one of the worst months at the global box office in recent memory, I wanted to share this incredibly insightful reporting from Scott Mendelson on the death of the "Oscar Bump."
Though the Academy is often criticized for awarding movies the masses don't see, Best Picture winners have historically hit high earnings marks at a consistent clip.
From 2010 to 2020, 7 of the 10 Academy Awards' Best Picture winners cleared at least 100 million dollars at the worldwide box office; 5 of those 7 hit totals greater than 160 million. More often than not, the word of mouth awards prestige generated was enough to quadruple returns on production budgets.
The box office decline precipitated by Covid has only accelerated a prestige market grappling with shorter theatrical windows, streamer dominated festival circuits, and carriage licensing deals between those same streamers and specialty distributors.
Barbie and Oppenheimer are more likely exceptions to current market conditions, rather than the return to awards season normalcy I and other chronically online cinephiles were hoping for.
If you've got a second... give Scott a read!
The reviews on “Argyle” have been abysmal and yet in almost every cinema in Sweden the movie is getting prime screenings.
For the exhibitors they are making some pocket change on the rentals of cinemas and distributors like Universal will rent the real estate out of it for the screens.
But who is watching?
There are still conversations with distributors and agents about packaging films with names and yet this packed line up of stars on this card, has not moved the needle and in spite of a whopping $150M *+ budgets. I do not believe today that a star cast or well known names in the movies drive audiences. I think stars on You Tube and TikTok have more cultural cache than ever before.
This is not the first time a movie with heavy hitters on the card and budgets the size of nations GDPs has flopped. Either there is too much money around causing an inflation or a deliberate decision to drive subscribers to a platform - in this case AppleTV+ who are picking up the tab. But at what cost?
Ideally, theatricals are the best experiences when done right between the producers, distribution and exhibitor pipeline.
There is still a legitimate business model for movies to open in the theatricals windows. A global audience exists who will go to cinemas. However it is going to take more than a poster or star cast to build brand love and awareness to create community and drive the value of digital windows. But if you are one and the same - in the sense you are the theatrical and digital window such as Apple and Amazon - then it becomes a zero sum game and I am not sure how one justifies the bottom line.
When it comes to producing, many factors can affect creativity. But how can we navigate through these challenges and reignite our creativity?
redpill's producer, Barnaby Brown gives us his top tips to help spark creativity when we're not feeling particularly inspired, whether it involves something as straightforward as a leisurely stroll or dedicating extra time to observe advertisements at the cinema, Barnaby offers practical strategies to help overcome this.
Visit redpill.co to find out more about us and our work
#redpill#Producer#MarketingAndAdvertising#Creativity
As great as it always is to celebrate the industry's highs and strengths, it's also important to keep short-term perspective on where Hollywood, theatrical exhibition, and the box office stand going into what looks like a challenging holiday season amid the ongoing SAG-AFTRA strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP).
To that end, Rebecca Rubin tackles the situation in her latest for Variety as 2023 nears its final months and a more-volatile-than-expected 2024 peaks around the corner.
Hopefully, the amount of additional release delays is kept to a minimum, but a great deal hinges on the labor strike resolving very soon. I'm honored to have a few thoughts shared in Rebecca's story.
“It’s been very clear for years that exhibitors need to step outside the box and find alternative content when studios aren’t putting out a tentpole,” Robbins says. “Whether it is COVID or the strikes, things keep delaying a consistent level of content hitting the big screen.”
“The lack of any resolution in labor conflicts is bad news for movie theaters,” says Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice Pro. “The longer the strike goes on, we approach that worst-case scenario of impact. Some movies don’t need actors to promote them, but smaller releases could benefit from having stars on the press circuit.”
AMC TheatresCinemarkHarkins TheatresIMAXRegalParamount PicturesSony Pictures EntertainmentUniversal PicturesThe Walt Disney CompanyWarner Bros. DiscoveryThe Boxoffice CompanyBoxoffice Pro#boxoffice#SAGAFTRA#AMPTP#movies#cinema#theaters#film#entertainment#trendingonlinkedin
The theatrical recovery is happening right here, right now. Some films are performing better than they would have a few years ago, with big hits like Oppenheimer and Everything, Everywhere All at Once leading the way.
May was expected to start the summer quietly, with Bad Boys: Ride or Die and A Quiet Place: Day One doing solid but not spectacular business. However, Bad Boys 4 is playing like Bad Boys 3, the Quiet Place spin-off opened bigger than its predecessors, and Inside Out 2 is performing like a Pixar sequel on steroids.
This June could be the biggest June since 2018. Bad Boys: Ride or Die has passed $300 million. (My thought: Imagine the potential success of a film that combines the entertaining, popcorn appeal of Bad Boys with intelligent storytelling and themes. #UndercoverDeceptions)
Looking ahead, we might see a July that rivals the #Barbenheimer-fueled mania of 2023. Despicable Me 4, Twisters, and Deadpool & Wolverine are poised for big numbers. August through December also promises a packed slate with potential hits like Trap, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Moana 2, Wicked Part I, and Gladiator 2.
This year, the landscape for mega hits is more diverse than ever, with #blockbusters coming from various studios, including #Disney, #Universal, and #Paramount.
To paraphrase Ratatouille: not every film can be a blockbuster, but it feels like a blockbuster can come from anywhere.
By Scott Mendelson#FilmIndustry#BoxOffice#TheatricalRecovery
If I were a movie theater I would just lower the price. Empty movie theaters don’t sell popcorn and soda. No one is seeing 4 movies a year at $20 a ticket.
“If we divide that average ticket price by the $10 billion target number, it means 927,643,785 tickets would need to be sold in a given year. If we divide that number by the number of eligible moviegoers in the U.S., that brings us to 3.44 tickets per year, per person. Now, since a person can't buy half of a ticket, we can make this easy and say that the average person would need to see three or four movies in theaters per year to get us to a healthy place.”
Executive Producer, Developing IP for Global Markets
"It has been a sobering year for the movie industry, particularly when looking at the state of the box office. We entered 2024 knowing it was likely going to be a down year compared to 2023, when domestic ticket sales topped $9 billion for the first time since the pandemic began. Unfortunately, it's been worse than expected. Ticket sales are pacing more than 20% behind this same point in 2023 and there is little hope on the horizon. So, what can be done to provide hope for Hollywood? In short, people need to start going to the movies more. How we get to that point is a big, complicated question for another time. But what would it take to get the box office back to a healthy place in the pandemic era? That's a question we can at least try to tackle.
...
To be very clear, $10 billion annually wouldn't even necessarily be a thriving theatrical marketplace. It would still be a far cry from 2019, when we hit $11.3 billion domestically. This would just get things back to a more workable level for the industry at large. It's a number that theaters could work with on a longer term basis, one that doesn't leave theater owners struggling to survive week-to-week."
#cinema#film#theatrical#filmexperience#tentpoleIP#IP#filmticketprices#boxoffice#filmrevenues#theaters#theaterrevenues#filmstrategy#filmmarketing
If everyone in the US saw 4 movies in theaters per year, it would bring the Hollywood bottom line back up to where it was pre-pandemic. Here's the problem:
----
I drove by the movie theaters in my town with my wife the other night and said, "Man, I would love to *just* go to a movie tonight." Simple, right?
When we were kids a virtual billboard showed what's playing and we would crane our heads to see, and yell about what movies were playing.
Now, I have to pull out my phone, Google it, pull up what's playing (near me) and the movies are just nonsense.
Planet of the Apes 4, a sequel of a remake of a remake to another Disney/Marvel/DC. Where are the art movies? The comedies? The stories about the human condition?
To quote Robert Frost, “No tears in the writer, no tears in the reader. No surprise in the writer, no surprise in the reader.”
If the movie studios don't care about putting out good product for us, content wise, price wise, why should we care about them?
In short, lower the ticket prices and bring back the good stuff.
Executive Producer, Developing IP for Global Markets
"It has been a sobering year for the movie industry, particularly when looking at the state of the box office. We entered 2024 knowing it was likely going to be a down year compared to 2023, when domestic ticket sales topped $9 billion for the first time since the pandemic began. Unfortunately, it's been worse than expected. Ticket sales are pacing more than 20% behind this same point in 2023 and there is little hope on the horizon. So, what can be done to provide hope for Hollywood? In short, people need to start going to the movies more. How we get to that point is a big, complicated question for another time. But what would it take to get the box office back to a healthy place in the pandemic era? That's a question we can at least try to tackle.
...
To be very clear, $10 billion annually wouldn't even necessarily be a thriving theatrical marketplace. It would still be a far cry from 2019, when we hit $11.3 billion domestically. This would just get things back to a more workable level for the industry at large. It's a number that theaters could work with on a longer term basis, one that doesn't leave theater owners struggling to survive week-to-week."
#cinema#film#theatrical#filmexperience#tentpoleIP#IP#filmticketprices#boxoffice#filmrevenues#theaters#theaterrevenues#filmstrategy#filmmarketing
Any time your industry considers itself "disastrous" is it cause for concern?
https://lnkd.in/eBv_9Z6m
We have had, from the Cinema side of things, a rough start to 2024. It was expected after the Hollywood Strikes delayed production and product releases. March and subsequently May were supposed to be indicators that the industry for theatrical releases had life left in it and had just been "on hold".
So now we are looking, again, to fill our auditoriums with a disinterested audience.
Maybe it's the product. Maybe its behavioral patterns. Whatever the issue all we know is we need people to come to the movies.
SNDBX will help. It is not going to be nearly enough to make up the gap.
So let's hope there are three or four more brilliant ideas to drive audiences back to theaters. We certainly need them.
Hollywood is broken and the upfronts make it clear why.
Warner Bros. Discovery Ad chief’s comments this week 👇 sound like Jack Donaghy in 30 Rock (a satire).
Does anyone turn on the TV or go to the movies to see “IP”? No. They go for stories.
I make content for a living and good work is not a “product” like pop tarts or ball bearings you “turn out” at “maximum efficiency”. Great creative is messy, unpredictable and bespoke.
But when your bottom line depends on tonnage of hours, not quality of moments, and your debt is $45B (3x your market cap), I guess you have to tell people it’s a “factory”.
Chief U.S. Advertising Sales Officer Jon Steinlauf:
“And I make the point because it really typifies who we are as a company. And Kathleen Finch is this content leader who's got all these production factories operating at high efficiency with great creative minds, and they're pumping out WBD IP. And the product is then being distributed in places where people are choosing to view it.”
#media#business#satire
Some takeaways from today's Wide Shot newsletter about the business of Hollywood:
- Know your audience, market your movie accordingly (hello, 'Longlegs!') and don't make it a 'feathered fish.'
- Box office is still down 16% from last year, but is on the mend from the writers' and actors' strikes.
- Don't blame older moviegoers when your movie bombs!
- Redbox was in even worse shape than we thought.
#hollywood#entertainmentindustry#marketing
Partnerships Leader | EdTech Innovator | Content Sales Strategist | Digital Learning Advocate | Cinephile
6moSo in other words, the "Oscar bait" strategy of dropping a movie in the last week of December to qualify for awards and push it in Jan/Feb on word of mouth- is done?