The call is getting louder and louder and is now, in a sense, coming from inside the house, The need for better rating methodologies for African countries is becoming increasingly pertinent , especially as credit ratings play a crucial role in determining a country's ability to access international finance at a time when infrastructure finance is at the fore for fostering development across the continent.
First off, there’s the issue of bias and misaligned perceptions. Many rating agencies apply a standardized approach that doesn’t fully capture the distinct challenges and opportunities across Africa. This often results in an overly pessimistic view of risk, making it harder for countries to secure affordable financing, even when they’re making serious strides in governance and reforms.
Another critical point is the lack of a nuanced understanding. Africa’s diversity is extraordinary—economic structures, political landscapes, and growth potential vary significantly. Yet, traditional methodologies often miss key factors, like the size and impact of the informal economy, which plays a massive role in many African countries. Afterall, Africa (and I cannot emphasis this enough) IS NOT A COUNTRY.
Then, there’s the data gap. Reliable and up-to-date data isn’t always readily available, so ratings can end up relying on incomplete information. Imagine how much more accurate these assessments could be if they incorporated insights from local sources (think local FIs, think tanks, & govt sources) and regional institutions like AfDB, ESA-TDB and AFREXIM etc. (you get the gist).
Lastly, we need to consider the impact of external shocks and structural vulnerabilities. Whether it’s commodity price swings or climate risks, current models often underplay how these factors affect African economies. Plus, they don’t always reward nations for building resilience or diversifying their economies.
Addressing these gaps isn't just about fairness; it's about creating opportunities. With more balanced and accurate ratings, African countries could lower borrowing costs and attract more investment, fueling growth and development across the continent. It’s time for a fresh perspective on credit risk that truly reflects Africa’s potential. Or perhaps more importantly, for capital sourced within the continent, we should champion our own credit rating agencies. It's likely time to look within and not outside for a solution.
"We need to reform how African nations are rated and reconsider the parameters that shape these models”- states Chipokota Mwanawasa -Policy Advisor to the President and Deputy Head of the Presidential Delivery Unit Government of Zambia, during the Nordic African Business Summit 24 for Norwegian-African Business Association (NABA)
When it comes to doing business or investing in Africa, perceptions and risk often drive up the cost of capital.
But are these perceptions accurate? #Africa is diverse and complex, therefore blanket ratings simply don’t reflect the unique opportunities within each country. Investors should not just rely on distant data or one-size-fits-all metrics. The most insightful approach is to spend time on the ground, talk to local stakeholders, and make informed, firsthand assessments.
For those ready to look beyond the surface, Africa holds immense untapped potential. Let’s build a new narrative, driven by direct engagement, deeper understanding, and sustainable growth.
To read more: https://lnkd.in/d-JWJ4JK
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3moWell done Brent. This is great. Looking forward to participating.