Brown Brothers Harriman’s Post

Can bond yields go higher? Sure they can. But are they breaking October 2023 highs on the back of last week's US CPI print? Probably not. I think it's too early to throw in the towel on disinflation. The last mile was always going to be hard. Progress looks like two steps forward and one step back. Underneath it all, I see more slack building in labour markets. Ultimately, this slack is leading to employment growth without wage growth. In the absence of wage growth, we don't need to worry about wage-price spirals in the same way we did in 2022. Don't get me wrong, I'm not long Treasuries here. But I'm starting to close out my shorts. This remains an exciting environment for active fixed income. The great opportunity to go much longer in duration will come later this year. Bond yields, inflation and BoJ were all discussed in my chat with CNBC last week. 👇

The fallacy of the #dots The most important central bank meetings next week would be the #boj and the #federalreserve. #jpy and 💲could benefit. 1️⃣ #boj could upset the #jpy-funded carry trade by fueling #repatriation of lifers' #earnings and making long-#jpy #corporate #hedge cheaper at the end of the Japanese fiscal year. The rotation out of short #jpy and into short #eur and #chf in the FX carry funding basket could continue. 2️⃣ #federalreserve could conclude that easier financial conditions, stickier inflation and sturdier economy in #usa may require less easing from here and, perhaps, even revise up its #dots. 💲could do well vs the new funders #chf and #eur . 🌟 #fed easing cycles that were followed by a no landing in the US (e.g. 1984, 1995 and 1998) consisted of 3 rate cuts rather than the usual 7 or 8. For more on this, please see my latest interview: https://lnkd.in/eb45Yhzw

Julie Biel, CFA discussed whether the consumer is going to power the US economy and market again in 2024. Julie highlights that her concern is that we don't have the level of cushion that we did in the last two years. For more, see Julie’s appearance on CNBC ‘Fast Money’ here: https://bit.ly/3vCSMKL #markets #economy #consumerspending

Julie Biel, CFA discussed whether the consumer is going to power the US economy and market again in 2024. Julie highlights that her concern is that we don't have the level of cushion that we did in the last two years. For more, see Julie’s appearance on CNBC ‘Fast Money’ here: https://bit.ly/3OewchZ #markets #economy #consumerspending

Julie Biel, CFA appeared on CNBC 'Fast Money' and discussed her market outlook and how it's important to be thoughtful of the fundamentals. Julie highlights that there is so much uncertainty and that it's hard to know which way we're going. For more, watch Julie's appearance: https://bit.ly/3TMvuvV #KARInsights #markets #investing

What does your crystal ball tell you? In the #chartofthemonth for January, Michael Westphal, CFA, Director of Investments, shares how it’s natural for people to seek predictions about what will happen in the future. Michael takes a look back at where Wall Street strategists thought we would finish in 2023. Read the full article. #crystalball #predictions

My recent interview with our friend David Lin is now live. We discussed the Fourth Turning, #inflation, a deep dive into US liquidity, and more. You can watch it here: https://lnkd.in/eQ7ZgVeW

In this episode of Money with Murphy, we look at drivers of volatility and reasons for resiliency in markets during the third quarter of 2024. From Fed rate cuts and shifts in the Yen to geopolitical tensions and surprising market rallies, Q3 had no shortage of market-moving events. With major asset classes showing strong year-to-date returns, Kara Murphy breaks down how global developments impacted markets and what lies ahead for investors in the coming months. Tune in for an insightful recap and key takeaways. Watch here: https://lnkd.in/ew4deqhu

🚫 US investors trigger major Wall Street sell-off over recession fears - The Guardian Hey everyone, check out this insightful article by The Guardian about the recent sell-off on Wall Street triggered by US investors' recession fears. It's a timely reminder of how global economic events can impact financial markets. It's definitely worth a read to stay informed and understand the dynamics at play. #WallStreet #USInvestors #RecessionFears https://ift.tt/bqt40m1

In this episode of Money with Murphy, we look at drivers of volatility and reasons for resiliency in markets during the third quarter of 2024. From Fed rate cuts and shifts in the Yen to geopolitical tensions and surprising market rallies, Q3 had no shortage of market-moving events. With major asset classes showing strong year-to-date returns, Kara Murphy breaks down how global developments impacted markets and what lies ahead for investors in the coming months. Tune in for an insightful recap and key takeaways. Watch here: https://lnkd.in/e-H6DMZX