Chris Brophy’s Post

US job creation totaled 254,000 in September much better than expected. The Dow Jones consensus forecast was 150,000. Geopolitics are still dominating the narrative as the world waits to see how and when Israel responds to the Iranian missile strike from earlier in the week (meanwhile, Israel continues its campaign against Hezbollah, with a strike earlier this morning aimed at removing the terror group’s remaining senior leadership). Adequate oil supplies will keep the reaction in Brent markets muted. Away from the Middle East, the other big headline this morning was the end of the US port strike although since the work stoppage was only a few days old, markets aren’t reacting in a notable fashion (if the strike had lasted weeks, the response would be more bullish). Even with this bullish news state-side, there still remain myriad opportunities to stumble. Remain alert and very, very nimble. #Investing #Markets #Economics

Pre-market index futures are jumping higher at dawn. There is a ton of news out, and nearly all of it is positive. Most importantly, China continued to fire its stimulus bazooka, adding a fiscal element overnight to compliment the monetary blitz from earlier in the week (in addition, there was a report on Bloomberg about China potentially injecting ~$140B of capital into its largest banks, enabling them to accelerate lending). In the Middle East, while the Israel/Hezbollah situation receives most of the attention, oil prices are crashing this morning on an FT report about how Saudi Arabia is abandoning hopes for $100 oil and shifting its focus on recapturing lost market share (in addition, it looks like Libya will return production back to normal after a recent dispute in the country reaches a resolution). In Europe, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut rates 25bp (as expected) while Fed’s Kugler delivered a strong endorsement of the recent 50bp FOMC cut, and Reuters claims the ECB could cut rates at its Oct meeting. On the company-specific front, Micron shares are exploding higher by 15% in pre-market trading following healthy results and bullish guidance (there was a lot of concern that the guide from Micron would be soft, but instead they forecasted EPS, margins, and revenue solidly ahead of expectations). Attention will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at a New York conference, which is expected before the market opens, as investors look for clues on the economic outlook and the pace of further easing. Traders will also focus on remarks from several Fed officials, including John Williams, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, and Neel Kashkari, later in the day. Keep your eyes on the newstickers and remain very, very nimble. #Investing #Markets #Economics

Pre-market index futures are in an uptrend before daybreak – the biggest news (by far) for Tuesday is the slew of stimulus steps unveiled by China, including several interest rate cuts and various liquidity measures (including some designed specifically to bolster equities). The news is undoubtably bullish for Chinese stocks (and cyclical/industrial sentiment broadly), although many are adopting a dismissive “here we go again” attitude toward the headlines, lamenting the scope and scale of the actions and anticipating a reversal of the present euphoria within a few days or weeks. Other than all the news out of China, nothing else major occurred on the macro front, and company-specific headlines were fairly sparse too. There is doubt any of the (scheduled) catalysts on the Tues calendar will dramatically alter the broader narrative. Futures are higher, led by Tech with Small-caps underperforming; pre-market Mag7 are mostly higher led by TSLA, with Semis bid up, too. The key overnight news was China’s latest stimulus measures which aided China/HK Equities to more than 4% gains. This news is boosting the commodity complex with both Energy and Base Metals seeing gains. Remain alert and very, very nimble. #Investing #Markets #Economics

Pre-market index futures are starting off autumn in the green and there are a lot of moving pieces in the market this morning. The news that’s most germane for stocks are the grim flash PMIs out of Europe for Sept, signaling a relatively steep downtick in growth momentum for that region. The EU PMIs are pushing 10-year yields lower by ~5bp in Germany. The situation between Israel and Hezbollah continues to escalate, but markets are relatively calm about these geopolitical developments (part of this is due to growth worries keeping a lid on oil, but stocks also seem to view the presence of ground troops, which haven’t been committed by the IDF into Lebanon, as a demarcation line – until that occurs, US equities might keep this situation along the periphery of the narrative). A slew of polling data in the US has hit over the last several days, and it all points to momentum for Harris, both nationally and within the critical battlegrounds, especially PA (although the battleground data is still pointing to a tight race, and Trump received positive news this morning in AZ, GA, and NC from the NYT). Indexes are hovering near record highs after the Federal Reserve’s outsized rate cut last week and as traders are looking forward to speeches from a saloonful of Fed officials for fresh insight on the pace and scope of further easing. Remain alert and very, very nimble. #Investing #Markets #Economics

Pre-market index futures are solidly in the green at dawn. As a matter of fact, stocks are exploding higher as markets absorb the Fed’s outsized rate cut. Other than FOMC digestion, there wasn’t a ton of incremental macro news since the Wed close The geopolitical situation continues to worsen (which stocks obviously don’t care about, at least for now) as the Pentagon grows increasingly concerned about Israel launching a ground offensive into Lebanon while Putin faces more pressure for a fresh troop mobilization. A lot of polling data hit in the last 24 hours, and it all points to a (relatively) steady picture of the race, with Harris up, but only slightly. What comes next for the Fed – in terms of data, the Aug PCE (on Fri 9/27) is the next major number, but investors really care about Sept figures, including the ISMs (manufacturing 10/1 and services 10/3), jobs report (10/4), and CPI (10/10). With the meeting over, the volume of Fed speakers will jump over the coming days and weeks, although a lot of this can be tuned out until after the 10/4 BLS report (Powell is set to speak on 9/26 and 9/30, but it’s unlikely either of these speeches differs meaningfully from his 9/18 press conference). Minutes from the 9/18 meeting get published on 10/9. The 50 basis point Fed move got an mixed reaction in markets, with initial gains for stocks fizzling and ultimately tepid moves in Treasuries, corporate bonds and commodities. Some are heating up today, however, with US stock futures bouncing amid gains across Europe and in Asia, while gold is heading back toward a record high and copper prices hit the strongest level in two months to lead a broad rally in base metals. A basket of Asian currencies notched up a 14-month high and the Japanese yen weakened with traders eyeing yield spreads. Bulls have control but with Triple Witching on Friday the turbulence will probably not abate. Remain alert and very, very nimble. #Investing #Markets #Economics

Pre-market index futures are trending higher at daybreak. The most interesting developments since the Thurs close came on the company-specific front, including: Adobe (the solid FQ3 upside was more than offset by modest weakness in the FQ4 guide, although management tone on the call was quite bullish) Boeing (the company’s biggest union voted overwhelmingly to strike) Oracle (the company provided very bullish long-term guidance at its Thurs analyst meeting) RH (the company delivered an encouraging message on demand w/bookings linearity positive in FQ2 and accelerating further into FQ3) Worldline (the company cut its 2024 guidance and its CEO stepped down) It was quiet on the macro front, although FOMC anticipation is building ahead of next week’s meeting, with a few articles/remarks raising speculation of a 50bp move. Investors probably should not spend too much time worrying about 25 or 50bp – once all the dust settles and investors have digested the statement, supplemental, and presser, we anticipate the takeaway in aggregate will be quite dovish. Again, Treasuries are higher and the dollar is weakening as investors continue to debate what size of interest-rate cut the Federal Reserve is likely to deliver next week. Another batch of mixed data on Thursday kept the guessing going, with US producer prices picking up slightly and applications for unemployment benefits also ticking higher. Don't give in to triskaidekaphobia, remain alert and very, very nimble. #Investing #Markets #Economics

Bidding for the silent auction items at Taste of Nashville 2024 is now LIVE! Click the link in the comments to check out the items and make a bid! All funds raised at the event go right back into serving youth in Middle TN! Tickets for the event in the comments below. Event Details: ⏰Date & Time: September 19th, 6:00 PM - 9:00 PM 📍Location: Nashville Farmers Market (900 Rosa L Parks Blvd) 🌮Food provided by: Chivanada | Jamaicaway | Jeni’s | Market City BBQ | Pie Town Tacos | Steaming Goat

TCU, we have liftoff 🚀 Anna Menon '08 is the first Horned Frog on a mission to space! She and the other Polaris Dawn astronauts launched into space today to attempt the world's first-ever private spacewalk. #LeadOnTCU Photo credit: Polaris (formerly Polaris Project) 🔗 https://bit.ly/4gmlvGu

Pre-market index futures are in the red at daybreak. Investors are still searching for the (fundamental) culprit behind the MTD swoon – “growth anxiety” seems to be the most popular reason and while this subject is the biggest risk hanging over the market’s head, there hasn’t really been any narrative-shifting data out in the last 48 hours (although the manufacturing ISM in the US certainly wasn’t great yesterday, and China’s Caixin services PMI fell short overnight). Rather than responding to a piece of actual news, markets are instead caught up in a doom loop whereby downside price action creates a narrative of negativity and starts to feed on itself (this is consistent with what happened in early Aug). The lack of valuation support leaves stocks susceptible to these types of sharp slumps, but the absence of a fundamental shift means the drop should be ephemeral. Black September--wake me up when September ends. It’s a common sentiment among investors, and seems amply justified by the post-Labor Day trading so far. The selloff is almost a repeat of early August and is likely to persist as traders/investors retreat from Big Tech, particularly those that have weak positions (i.e. long at inflated price levels). Payroll data on Friday looks to be next catalyst that have traders focus. Keep those seat belts fastened, remain very alert and very, very nimble. #Investing #Markets #Economics