Capital Economics’ Post

🚨 Big Market Movements Expected! 📊 As we approach the highly anticipated presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on June 9th, the financial community is on edge. According to Perri Capell, an investment manager at Janus Henderson, this debate could be the biggest shock for financial markets this June. Amidst the fragile calm maintained by the Federal Reserve's interventions and the gradual economic reopening, this significant event is expected to introduce substantial volatility. Historical data suggests notable market movements post-presidential debates. Recall the 2016 showdown between Trump and Hillary Clinton, which saw a 1.1% drop in the S&P 500 and a 0.6% decrease in the Dow Jones the following day. Although attributing market shifts to a single event can be complex, it's clear that presidential debates are a catalyst for change. 🔍 What are your thoughts on how the upcoming debate could impact the markets? Have you considered adjusting your investment strategies based on such events? Share your strategies or experiences! 👉 Remember, staying informed and prepared is crucial in navigating market uncertainties. #FinancialMarkets #PresidentialDebate #InvestmentStrategies #MarketVolatility #BidenVsTrump

The Federal Reserve's recent decision has ignited a firestorm of discussions across the financial landscape! 🔥💼 Staying the course, the Fed has chosen to maintain interest rates within the 5.25-5.5% range, a historic high sustained for six consecutive meetings. This move has sent shockwaves through the market, prompting widespread speculation on future monetary policy directions. 💡💰 Join the insightful conversation on Yahoo Finance with Thornburg Investment Management's Co-Head of Investments and Portfolio Manager, Jeff Klingelhofer, as he dissects the nuances of the Fed's latest decision with Josh Lipton and Akiko Fujita. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MarketInsights #EconomicAnalysis #FinanceExperts #MarketDomination #JeffKlingelhofer https://lnkd.in/dnJN6xxE

I was on Bloomberg TV yesterday (22 Jan) to discuss what a second Trump Presidency (a possibility that’s gaining traction with investors) would mean for global financial markets. Some see this as the biggest risk facing markets in 2024. We see Trump 2.0 causing a surge in global financial market volatility, if it happens. His threat to impose a 10% tariff on all imports into the US, if it happens, will be inflationary - stopping Fed rate cuts and hurting the US economy. Any plans by Trump to cut the corporate tax rate and other taxes (as he did during his Presidency in 2017) to spur the economy, if unaccompanied by a cutback in government spending, may cause US Treasury yields (US budget deficit is already very sizeable) to spike. In 2022 when the UK did something similar, government bond yields surged. There are also fears that Trump will tinker with the Fed’s independence, withdraw from global alliances like NATO and withdraw support for Ukraine and Taiwan. With Trump defying the odds so far, his possible Presidency is a major risk to bear in mind. Of course even if he wins, he may not get all his wishes, if there is gridlock in Congress - which will help to check any excesses from a sitting President. You can watch my interview here for more on this plus views on Chinese equities: https://lnkd.in/dtHnFAXZ

For nearly 75 years, the Fed has operated with political independence, playing a key role in shaping U.S. monetary policy. But could that be changing? As the upcoming election approaches, questions about the future of the Fed's autonomy are being raised. What might this mean for the economy, interest rates and financial markets? Read more about this in our S&P Global Market Intelligence news feature. #Finance #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #EconomicOutlook #MarketTrends #FinancialStability #SPGlobal #MarketIntelligence

With Biden's exit and rate cut speculations hotter than ever, this week's commentary is a must-read. We navigate a wild week and what it could mean for the financial markets. #economy #finance #biden https://hubs.la/Q02HsvD30

Summary: ·       Chair Powell observes a tilt in the data, that confirms his semi-annual testimony “TLT”. ·       Mr. Market frames Powell’s “TLT” in the steeper yield curve context of a Trump victory. ·       Members of the current “Techno-Economic War Cabinet” will have a different perspective on the “Crowdstrike” than the company’s customers. #fed #powell #inflation #trump #crowdstrike https://lnkd.in/dhDueEGt

With Biden's exit and rate cut speculations hotter than ever, this week's commentary is a must-read. We navigate a wild week and what it could mean for the financial markets. #economy #finance #biden https://hubs.la/Q02HsyCT0

With Biden's exit and rate cut speculations hotter than ever, this week's commentary is a must-read. We navigate a wild week and what it could mean for the financial markets. #economy #finance #biden https://hubs.la/Q02HskvW0

🚨 As we head into a politically charged season with tomorrow's U.S. presidential debate and fall election election, I want to share a few key thoughts on how this might affect the markets and your investments: Staying Informed: While the election isn’t currently a major market driver, we're closely monitoring the situation. Upcoming events, such as the debates and conventions, could influence market dynamics. Preparation is Key: Our team is prepared to navigate through potential volatility. We believe in proactive communication and will keep you updated with the most relevant information. Diversification Matters: The importance of a diversified portfolio cannot be overstated. It's designed to weather uncertainty, ensuring that your investments are well-positioned regardless of political outcomes. Long-Term Perspective: It’s crucial to maintain a long-term perspective on investments. Political cycles may come and go, but a well-thought-out investment strategy should not waver with the changing tides. Open Dialogue: We’re here to address any concerns you may have. Your peace of mind is paramount, and we welcome discussions on how current events are impacting the market and your financial goals. 🔍 As always, we're here to support you through these times with strategic insights and unwavering dedication. Let's keep our focus on what matters most - your financial well-being. 💼🌐 #stockmarket #markets #data #financialplanning #financialliteracy #financialadvisor #portfoliomanagement #portfolios #stocks #interestrates #inflation #planning #investing #bonds #fixedincome #stayinvested #followyourplan #bullmarket #bearmarket #happyness #happiness #wealth 

With Biden's exit and rate cut speculations hotter than ever, this week's commentary is a must-read. We navigate a wild week and what it could mean for the financial markets. #economy #finance #biden https://hubs.la/Q02HsyDP0