Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Post

This is important in times of tension with other superpowers. Russia, China, and Iran are very active in the region and are trying to align some governments, but the United States and the United Kingdom in recent weeks are keeping an eye on some of the underground trends that the Eurasian powers are showing. https://lnkd.in/edfjJmRh

Can China and Russia Navigate Their Power Transition in Central Asia? Foreign Policy Research Institute 13 Jun 2024 China and Russia have long had a de facto partnership in Central Asia, in which Russia was the primary security provider and China was the primary investor. Under this arrangement, Beijing tacitly agreed not to challenge Moscow's regional primacy, and regional states largely respected the interests of their great power neighbors. But two processes are now underway that might jeopardize this arrangement. First, a power transition is underway in the region, with Chinese power rising fast relative to Russia's, and power transitions have historically been prone to competition and even conflict. Next, regional countries are increasingly asserting their own interests, including in ways that could accelerate a trend toward Chinese-Russian competition. Whether Beijing and Moscow can preserve their partnership in the region against these headwinds is far from certain.

New power dynamics are emerging in the South Caucasus. As Russia's influence wanes, other players step in. In a new SCEEUS Report, Lina Sigurdh examines the shifting power balance in Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, and the strategic coordination between Russia and China. Read more here ▶ https://lnkd.in/dDjjFura

The increasing involvement of Russia and China in the Middle East, with these countries playing a more significant role in regional dynamics. The resurgence of Russia and the advancement of China could introduce new power dynamics that may challenge Israel's traditional alliances and influence in the region. #Resurgence of Russia and Advancement of China

https://lnkd.in/dgQDsZ_3 Great Power Competition in Africa Former US Ambassador to South Africa and Hoover Fellow, Jandayi Frazer, analyzes the intensifying geopolitical competition between the United States and China for influence across Africa, emphasizing Africa’s growing global significance. Jendayi Frazer June 27, 2024 The world’s first great power competition between European nations like Great Britain, Germany, Belgium, and France led to Africa’s present-day fragmentation and economies built on the exportation of raw materials. Former US Ambassador and Hoover Fellow, Jendayi Frazer, provides a rich historical context on this power competition’s lasting impact, as well as the impact of the later Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Understanding the significance of these historical windows creates a clearer picture of the ongoing, present-day great power competition between the United States and China.

Kim Jong-un announced that “re-unification with South Korea is no longer possible” and that the constitution should be revised to designate the South as “principle enemy.” Sometimes you have to take a man at his word. This is compounded by the eradic nK decision making process (as evidenced in their actions), the proximity of the two Koreas, and the increasingly offensive nature of South Korean military responses. Furthermore KJU may view this as his best chance to achieve limited goals for sustaining his regime given the infusion of Chinese, Russian, and Iranian support/funds. What the author did not discuss is the changing nature of the South Korean people. When I first arrived in Korea in 2003 for CTLT the prevalent belief of the South was one of the “Prodigal Son”. This was reunification of the peninsula under South Korean rule when nK realized it was the only way forward. A large portion of the population still had relatives they knew in the north and would have supervised visits along the DMZ. The South provided a large degree of humanitarian support to the north both officially and personally. South Korea developed an industrial park in the north to employ north Koreans building cars, equipment, etc. When we returned in 2015 the industrial park was shuttered and the average Korean (under the age of 65) viewed north Korea as a separate nation and those in it “were not Korean”. The South also began to balk at the expense of reintegrating the north given how destitute it is. This fundamental change in the outlook towards north Korea makes the likelihood of armed conflict greater as the opposing sides aren’t “us” but rather a “them”. What should be asked, as the author points out, is what is the likely action by China or north Korea if the other is involved in a conflict with Taiwan or South Korea respectively. I would also put forth we should question what the actions of Russia and Iran would be if a distraction like this were to occur. I am confident the only reason we didn’t see the regional conflict in Ukraine spiral into other regions is due to Russia’s failure to exploit initial gains leaving columns stranded on highways in the face of determined Ukrainian resistance. This gave other nations a moment of pause. Had Russia achieved its goals we would likely have seen aggression in other hot spots across the world. The most dangerous time is when the adversary believes they can actually get away with what they want to do. Much like the last time nK invaded the South we can’t allow them to be emboldened through a modern Acheson Declaration. Proverbial and literal lines matter.

the shifting global power dynamics, with the perceived waning of US influence and the rise of China and Russia, could have significant implications for the international order that emerged after World War II, particularly if double standards are applied in how these nations are treated by global institutions like the United Nations.

https://lnkd.in/dn6-MRpq Between Aspiration and Reality: Russia in the World (Dis)order Russie.Eurasie.Visions, No. 134, Ifri, June 2024 By: Bobo LO 17/06/2024 Between Aspiration and Reality: Russia in the World (Dis)order Download 0.88 Mo Putin’s foreign policy is centered on the idea that Russia was, is and always will be a great power, playing a leading role in world affairs. This conviction rests on several pillars: the exercise of sovereign power, civilizational messianism, identification with the Global South, and an enduring sense of grievance and insecurity. Putin’s great power ambitions face considerable constraints. The war in Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of Russia’s much-vaunted military might and killed off lingering hopes of being a geopolitical balancer between the United States (US) and China. Economic ties with Europe have suffered enormous damage. Strategic dependence on China has grown significantly. And Moscow’s influence in the post-Soviet space has been eroded. Nevertheless, it would be premature to write off Russia’s prospects. It is a diminished power, but the shortcomings of others may open up opportunities to restore its position and influence. Putin is counting on growing “Ukraine fatigue” in the West, and a Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election could be a game-changer. Any dilution in Western support for Ukraine would boost Russia’s strategic prospects and encourage Putin’s aggressive inclinations.

🌍 𝐂𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐦 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐢𝐞𝐬: 𝐀 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐟𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐫 A recent alert (https://lnkd.in/g2D5f97H) from Axel Ferrazzini sparked my interest in the dynamic landscape of international collaboration in quantum technologies. 🤝 The advancement of #quantumtechnology is undeniably a global imperative, yet it's unfolding amidst a complex geopolitical chessboard. Two recent exemples. As pointed by Axel's post, the recent NATO note pledges for concerted efforts and is reflecting a unified front of its member nations (https://lnkd.in/gu8xhEWr). On the other, there's the burgeoning collaboration between BRICS countries, as seen in the China-Russia quantum communication initiative (https://lnkd.in/gpJf_EtA). We can quote here, Fedorov from Russia’s National University of Science and Technology who hints at the potential establishment of a quantum communication network among BRICS nations in the future, far from US's threat. 🌐 This dichotomy paints a striking but sadly realistic picture: while we are making great strides toward scientific progress, these developments are increasingly overshadowed by the strategic alignments and rivalries of world powers. It's a reminder that when it comes to quantum advances, technology and politics are inextricably linked. #quantumtechnology #internationalcollaboration #BRICS #NATO #globaldiplomacy

As tensions rise between global superpowers, Taiwan has emerged as a critical flashpoint that could spark a devastating conflict. Join Flashpoint for an exclusive fireside chat with Dmitri Alperovitch, where he’ll dive into his new book World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century and share critical insights on what the U.S. must do to stay ahead. 🗓 Date: October 3, 2024 ⏰ Time: 2:00 PM ET 🎯 Key highlights: - Taiwan’s strategic role in global geopolitics - Grand strategy to prevent catastrophic conflict - Steps the U.S. and allies must take to secure global stability Space is limited, so grab your spot now!👇 https://lnkd.in/e4NuqXqR