Cetera Financial Group’s Post

Name: Cetera Financial Group on LinkedIn: #theweekahead
Uploaded: 2024-07-15T13:05:26.174Z
Channel: Cetera Financial Group
Description: Corporate earnings season begins in earnest this week. Join CIO Gene Goldman, CFA on this week’s episode of #TheWeekAhead as he discusses his concerns, especially given the market’s high expectations. https://lnkd.in/eBGrDfHG

Cetera Financial Group

64,043 followers

2mo

Corporate earnings season begins in earnest this week. Join CIO Gene Goldman, CFA on this week’s episode of #TheWeekAhead as he discusses his concerns, especially given the market’s high expectations. https://lnkd.in/eBGrDfHG

Transcript

Hey, I'm Gene Goldman. Here's look at the week ahead for the week of July 15th. Well, last week we saw some very market friendly news. We saw some key readings that suggested that inflation is slowing. This in turn makes it more likely that the Fed cuts interest rates. So what the Fed on our side, this is great for the financial markets. This suggests for example lower borrowing costs. Another potential market driver is corporate earnings and there is the old adage earnings Dr. stock prices and you see here for example, the light blue line is corporate earnings and the purple line is the S&P 500. And you see that the stock market tends to follow earnings fairly closely. So with that said, second quarter earnings season began last week with banks releasing earnings and the earnings season usually starts pretty slowly, but this quarter it's going to build up pretty fast, pretty quickly, for example, on August 1st. We are going to see 250 companies release earnings in one single day. So looking at potential second quarter earnings, we do have some concerns. The economy is slowing fairly quickly and slower economic growth usually equates to lower earnings. You see here for example, the City economic surprise index and this is an indicator that tracks if data is missing expectations or data is coming in better than expectations. So for example, if a data point, if an economic report misses expectations. The line goes down. If a data point beats expectations, the line rises. This line has been falling fast since the beginning of Q2. This is likely going to impact second quarter earnings. Analysts have been revising estimates already. You see here for example, we grab some data from our friends over at Bespoke. This shows the changes in earnings estimates relative to where they were three months ago. 8 out of 11 sectors are lower, except for consumer discretionary, energy and healthcare. Interestingly enough, two sectors that have been leading the markets all year, Technology and Communication services, have been revised down 6.5% and 15. 1. Percent respectively over the last three months. And then lastly, markets are anticipating better earnings. You see here for example, the S&P 500 is up almost 18% year to date. So the big take away this week is that earnings, the earnings season begins this week's earnings Dr. stock prices, but a slowing economy is going to start impacting earnings. The markets seem to be ignoring this fact to an extent as earnings reports come out something to watch in terms of our high. Bernie's expectations, are they sorry, are they going to materialize or will they fail to materialize? If they do fail to materialize, this could put a damper on socks. Thank you for listening. For more information, please follow us on X at cetera. I am see you next week. Thank you so much.

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