Chad Moutray’s Post

The Consumer Prices Index edged down 0.1% in June, the first monthly decline since May 2020 after being flat in the prior release. Over the past 12 months, consumer prices have risen 3.0%, down from 3.3% in May and the slowest year-over-year pace since March 2021.  At the same time, core consumer prices (which exclude food and energy) inched up 0.1% in June, down from 0.2% growth in May and the weakest monthly increase since August 2021. Core inflation rose 3.3% year-over-year in June, down from 3.4% in May and the slowest pace since April 2021. Overall, these data show a U.S. economy that is making progress on consumer inflation, with continued moderation, albeit perhaps not as fast as desired. For its part, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming July 30–31 meeting. With core inflation that continues to remain above its target (2% over the long-term), the Federal Reserve is likely to wait until there are clearer signs of pricing progress before it starts the process of normalizing rates. The FOMC is likely to start cutting interest rates later this year. While there will be a chorus of analysts suggesting that there has been sufficient progress to warrant a decrease in the federal funds rate at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve might opt to wait until after the election, making a move at the December 17–18 meeting. (There is also a meeting on November 6–7, which takes place the same week as the U.S. election.) Indeed, policymakers continue to make it clear that rates will stay “higher for longer” until more progress is made. For the full National Restaurant Association post, see https://lnkd.in/eYPJcQw5. #CPI #prices #inflation #FOMC

The Consumer Prices Index was flat in May, easing from 0.3% growth in April and the slowest pace since July 2022. Over the past 12 months, consumer prices have risen 3.3%, edging down from 3.4% year-over-year in April. At the same time, core consumer prices (which exclude food and energy) rose 0.2% in May following the 0.3% gain seen in April and the weakest monthly increase since October 2023. Core inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year in May, down from 3.6% in April and the slowest pace since April 2021. Overall, these data highlight a mixed picture for consumer inflation. On the positive side, core inflation continues to moderate, albeit not as fast as desired. Indeed, consumer prices continue to remain somewhat elevated, even with progress over the past year. For its part, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged following the June 11–12 meeting that concludes today. It is also likely to take no action at its upcoming July 30–31 meeting. With core inflation that continues to remain above its target (2% over the long-term), the Federal Reserve is likely to wait until there are clearer signs of pricing progress before it starts the process of normalizing rates. This could still occur at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting, but such a move would hinge on whether incoming data reflect sufficient headway on inflation. Indeed, policymakers continue to make it clear that rates will stay “higher for longer” until more progress is made. Some Fed watchers have suggested that that the next live meeting for a possible rate cut might be the final one of the year, which is on December 17–18. #FOMC #federalreserve #inflation #CPI For the full National Restaurant Association post, see https://lnkd.in/e8ZNZeex.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in October, marking the fourth consecutive month at this pace and aligning with consensus expectations. Over the past year, consumer prices have increased by 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September, which had represented the slowest annual growth since February 2021. Food prices in October rose by 0.2%, a slowdown from the previous month's 0.4% increase, while energy costs remained unchanged. Notably, gasoline prices declined by 0.9%, marking the fifth drop in the last six months. Excluding the more volatile food and energy sectors, core consumer prices rose by 0.3% for the third consecutive month. Among the significant contributors to this increase were used cars and trucks (+2.7%), medical care services (+0.4%), shelter (+0.4%), and transportation services (+0.4%). In contrast, apparel prices fell by 1.5%, following a sharp rise in September. Year-over-year core inflation remained steady at 3.3% in October, maintaining this level for the past three months. This data paints a nuanced picture of inflation trends. While overall (headline) inflation has significantly moderated over the past two years, core inflation continues to exhibit resilience and shows limited downward movement in recent months. Looking forward, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lower the federal funds rate by an additional 25 basis points during its December 17–18 meeting. This would follow reductions of 75 basis points in the September and November meetings. The Fed is striving for a “soft landing” for the economy, and its gradual rate-cutting approach reflects a cautious path towards normalizing rates. Given that core inflation remains above the Fed's target, the trajectory for rate adjustments into 2025 is likely to be deliberate and gradual. For the full National Restaurant Association post, see https://lnkd.in/e_e6ccTP.

Last week the consumer price index was flat compared with the prior month in May, and it gained 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, according to the Labor Department. Meanwhile, a core measure that strips out the food and energy categories was up 0.2% from the prior month and 3.4% from the prior year.

Annual consumer price inflation for October was only 2.8%, down from 3.8% in September 2024. This is the lowest inflation since the height of the pandemic in June 2020, when the rate was 2.2%.

To get a more accurate sense of how prices have risen, CNBC Make It looked at consumer price index data since April 2021 to see how much more Americans are actually paying for everyday items. In that time, the cost of essentials like groceries, utilities and gas increased by 20% or more. The cost of all items on the index increased by 13% in that time. Prices haven’t receded to levels since this administration took office!

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in December, up from 0.3% in November, marking the fastest monthly increase since March. On an annual basis, consumer prices climbed 2.9%, compared to 2.7% in November, reaching the highest year-over-year rate since July. Food prices saw a 0.3% increase in December, slightly lower than November's 0.4% growth. Meanwhile, energy costs surged by 2.6%—the largest monthly gain since August 2023—driven by a notable 4.4% rise in gasoline prices. Excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, core consumer prices edged up 0.2% in December, following four consecutive months of 0.3% growth. Notable contributors to the increase in core inflation included used cars and trucks (+1.2%), new vehicles (+0.5%), and transportation services (+0.5%). On a year-over-year basis, core inflation eased to 3.2% in December, the lowest rate since July, after holding steady at 3.3% for the preceding four months. This data presents a mixed narrative: while overall (headline) inflation has moderated significantly over the past two years, core inflation remains stubbornly high, showing limited downward movement. Core inflation averaged 3.3% year-over-year in the latter half of 2024, down from an average of 3.6% in the first half of the year. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at its January 28–29 meeting, following rate cuts at the last three sessions. However, with core inflation still above the Fed's 2% target, any adjustments in 2025 are expected to be gradual. Uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook persist, and the Fed is likely to adopt a cautious, data-driven approach to further rate cuts. Nevertheless, two rate reductions remain possible this year, contingent on inflation and economic growth trends. For the full National Restaurant Association post on consumer prices, see https://lnkd.in/e_e6ccTP.

Consumer prices rose 0.2% in August as annual inflation rate hits lowest since early 2021 - https://lnkd.in/dXxsbrvj - Prices increased as expected in August while the annual inflation rate declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that sets the stage for an expected quarter percentage point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in a week. The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and […]

May’s highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) release revealed that prices rose 0.3% in April according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a 12-month basis, the same Consumer Price Index rose 3.4%, a slight respite from volatile inflation numbers in months prior. For comparison, the CPI rose 0.4% a month earlier in March, while March’s annually adjusted CPI was 3.5%. Core inflation – which strips away volatile food and energy prices – rose 3.6% in April, down from a 3.8% price hike in March. In April, prices for shelter and gasoline climbed the most, accounting for 70% of the total monthly increase. The food index remained unchanged, while the food away from home index actually dropped marginally. Medical care, car insurance, apparel, and personal care items also got more expensive in April. *** Source: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

Data released earlier Wednesday showed that headline consumer prices rose 2.6% last month on an annualized basis, compared to 2.4% in September. Month-on-month, the figure came in at 0.2%, matching September's pace. The "core" reading, stripping out more volatile items like food and fuel, rose 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% on a monthly basis, in line with September