Charbel Tadros’ Post

Dec 4: The starting gun for this year’s annual Washington December self-created crisis today was fired by Biden, whose Administration says the US is running out of Ukraine support money. But the actual problem is much larger: whether Biden’s self-requested morass of Ukraine aid, Israel aid, Taiwan aid, and border security issues can be resolved before the holidays. Today’s Biden plea, which implicitly confesses the inability to change things, makes that look less likely. So, it’s a small markets negative because it increases geopolitical uncertainty, putting both US foreign policy commitments and domestic security in question: failure to do all or some of these things emboldens those who oppose US/Western interests. Markets should look to Wednesday [Senate changed from Tuesday] for the first signs the aid/border impasse might be broken when a Senate test vote on the package almost certainly fails. This failure will provide Democratic Leader Schumer the opportunity to show recalcitrant Democrats and the White House alike that they’ve got to get serious on solving border issues or the entire aid package is in jeopardy. That vote will show negotiations to be at the beginning of the process, and not close to the end - so it will be weeks before markets can expect resolution.    Today, we think success on all these issues before year-end is 70% likely, factoring in a bit of confidence that Wednesday’s vote serves its purpose of focusing balky Democratic minds.  Wednesday’s Senate vote will mark the true start of the negotiations process on all these issues, since the need to work on border issues will be re-impressed upon Washington, even after the initial bipartisan Senate border issues group broke up.  And, as ever, holidays jet fumes will provide a powerful incentive for Congress to finish this work in 3 weeks and leave town, knowing that when they return in 2024 it will be back to the usual self-created dreary faux funding crisis, with mid-January as the bogey - and, we think, more kick-the-can delays in store.  #biden #bordersecurity #congress #senate #schumer #israel #ukraine #taiwan

13 Feb 21:25: BBC News: Senate's 🇺🇸 $95bn for Ukraine 💙💛, Israel 🇮🇱 and Taiwan 🇹🇼 faces uphill battle in House 👺🇺🇸🤮: Updated 28 mins ago: By Madeline Halpert & Anthony Zurcher: BBC News: The US Senate 🇺🇸🗽has approved a $95bn (£75bn) foreign aid package after months of political wrangling, but it faces an uphill battle in the House 👺🤡🤮. While Senate Democrats were in favour of passing the bill, republicans 👺🤮 were divided and previously voted it down. The package has $60bn for Ukraine, $14bn for Israel's war against Hamas and $10bn for humanitarian aid in conflict zones, including in Gaza. But the House of Representatives Speaker suggested he might block it. The package, which includes more than $8bn for Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific allies, passed the Democratic-controlled Senate by 70 to 29 in a predawn vote on Tuesday. The bipartisan support came despite former president frump’s 👺🤡🤮 criticism of the bill for its lack of funding to secure the US-Mexico border … (Me: … and which has previously been included but he STILL requested it be voted against …: please choose an appropriate adjective: moronic / evil / treasonous / dumb / ignorant / wonderful / fair / narcissistic (a fair range, I think 👺🤮):

Voice of Reason - Sen Vance delivers logically comprehensive and historically accurate denouncement of imminent passage of Foreign Aid package. Fate of unintended consequences figures heavily in his analysis, from post 9/11/2001 invasion of Iraq to Ukraine. He asks, “Have we learned nothing?” One consequential component of package not addressed, is the risk to perceived safety of U.S. financial market, if Russian assets are seized to pay for costs related to Ukraine. If Russian assets can be seized, which nation is next based on legislation capability of a belligerent US Congress? BRICS has exponentially gained momentum enlarging membership to include Arab and Pacific Rim Nations and this is one more reason to bolster international drive to move off US dollar as world monetary standard. #ceo #founders #boardroom #worldnews #firstpost #skynewsaustrailia #mainstreetusa #trump2024 #jdvance #uscongress #ukraine

I started to read this very disturbing note in the #Economist (I am copy-pasting it as it might change over days). Honestly, is that the US Senate debate? The #ordinary US #citizen pays #taxes to bring these senators to the House to do the #right things. There is no #question that funding to Ukraine #must go on and in 100 increasing #folds. It is only two years of war, and the US is tired of continuing. If they can continue funding a lot of nonsense in the world for 50 to 75 to 100 years, it is a #moral #obligation to pay for Ukraine and correct past wrongdoings. Isn't it? #Ukraine to #win and Ukraine to #rebuild and #reconstruct to a higher level than it was in the past. * Views are my own, they do not represent the views of any of my past or present employers or clients, and a “like” is not necessarily an endorsement. https://lnkd.in/d9GhgJhK A Senate battle over Ukraine aid America’s Senate this week formally takes up President Joe Biden’s $106bn supplemental request for national security, including military aid to Ukraine. As the flow of American weapons to Ukraine slows down, nobody is certain whether congressional paralysis can be overcome soon, or at all. Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, has urged Congress not to waver at a “hinge in history” as foes—including Russia, China and Iran—seek to weaken American leadership. But the aid faces many obstacles. One is a demand by Republicans to pair it with asylum reform and other steps to stanch migration at the southern border. Another is some Democrats’ call to put conditions on aid to Israel to limit civilian casualties in Gaza. A third is a push by China hawks to increase help to Taiwan, funded by squeezing economic assistance to Ukraine. And even if the Senate strikes a deal, it is uncertain whether bitterly divided Republicans in the House would agree to it.

Is the USA prevaricating so that Ukraine and Russia can bleed out together? The House of Representatives and in particular House Speaker Mike Johnson and the GOP are withholding aid to Ukraine. Johnson claims that this is because he wants to 'secure the southern border'. A claim that has no credibility because the GOP recently blocked a bipartisan border and security bill worth 118 Billion Dollars. Democrats have accused the GOP of deliberately blocking the bill so that they can continue to make immigration their main election platform. Johnson has attempted to provoke Biden into overriding Congress by telling him to make an executive order, a trap that Biden is avoiding because it would complicate his image in the upcoming Presidential election. Ukraine is an innocent victim of this fiasco. The GOP led by MAGA extremists have blocked all attempts to provide a new aid package to Ukraine. The only beneficiary of this is Putin's Russia. Claims that leading members of the GOP are acting as Russian assets is growing in momentum in US media; it is hard to see how they cannot be right. During his tenure, President Donald Trump was so adoring of Putin that he refused to believe his own intelligence services, initiated the withdrawal from Afghanistan and attempted to withdraw US troops from Europe. This, combined with his attempted overthrow of the American people's vote in 2021 gave Putin sufficient confidence to advance into Ukraine. Now though, it must be time for Biden to use an executive order to provide aid to Ukraine. While the western nations give all they can, the proposed package from the USA would double that support. If nothing moves in this regard it leaves the door open for accusations of the USA deliberately prolonging the war, so that Russia's military power and economy are depleted to such a degree that they are no longer a world power. Is the USA prevaricating so that Ukraine and Russia can bleed out together? I hope not! Slava Ukraini! Who Dares Shares Robin Horsfall

🇺🇦❗️🇺🇸 President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy cancelled his planned speech to the US Senate at the last minute, according to Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. "Zelenskyy, by the way, could not come... something happened at the last minute," Schumer said. Earlier, Schumer announced that the Senate plans to vote on a bill to increase military aid to Ukraine, although Republicans oppose the package, demanding stricter immigration policies. The vote is scheduled to take place later this week. Schumer urged senators to reflect on the importance of the moment, stressing that US national security and the development of democracy around the world are at a pivotal juncture right now. "I urge every senator to think about where we are at this historic moment. America's national security is at stake around the world - in Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. This could determine the trajectory of democracy for years to come. We are at a historic moment," Schumer said. US Republican lawmakers are linking the vote for financial support for Ukraine to initiatives to strengthen US borders in an effort to encourage the Biden administration to take a more active role in addressing the migration crisis. Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider of Illinois and Republican Congressman Michael McCaul of Texas, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, believe that these initiatives are aimed at protecting the sovereignty and borders of both the US and Ukraine, and demonstrate the ability to solve domestic problems while maintaining the support of allies. At the same time, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said he was calling on his party's lawmakers to oppose a bill that would approve military aid to Ukraine and Israel but not the changes in border policy that the Republican Party insists on. Although a growing number of Republicans are opposed to continuing aid to Kyiv, McConnell has previously argued that the money is necessary to confront Russia, but now says that changing border policy is equally important. Hlib Ostapenko - Political Analyze ✍️ #politics #ukraine #us #usa #senate #zelensky

WAPO Editors „Ukraine is on its back heels, in part because some Republican leaders have held up aid to the would-be U.S. ally. …Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has refused to put it on the House floor, fearing retribution from far-right GOP lawmakers. That has led others in the House to contemplate bypassing the speaker, an unusual and audacious end-run around the chamber’s leadership. ….
Fourteen House members — eight Republicans and six Democrats — have signed a petition that would force a floor vote on military support for Ukraine and enhanced U.S. southern border security. They need 204 more signatures to make it happen. Even if organizers don’t get the 218 members necessary to move forward, this bipartisan endeavor might pressure Mr. Johnson, at last, to cut a deal.…Two years after Russia’s … invasion, Ukraine suffers from war fatigue and faces an internal debate about calling up younger troops. …viewing the Oscar winner for best documentary feature, “20 Days in Mariupol,” which captures the terror and trauma of Russia’s siege of that Ukrainian port city. Wavering U.S. lawmakers might watch it…. Mr. Putin: “somewhat ridiculous on our part” to negotiate with Ukraine when its “running out of ammunition.” It would be worse than ridiculous on Congress’s part if lawmakers fail.