There is a narrative all around social media that the labour market in the world's largest economy is resilient; however, among many indicators that we track, most of them are flashing red.
One of them is the Conference Board ETI, which is trending lower. If this trend continues, the data will soon turn recessionary.
According to market participants last week, one of the biggest turning points was the "Non-Farm Payrolls," which surprised on the upside (massive beat).
Note that since we are just a month away from the elections, we need to track the government data (BLS) closely, which will be subject to massive revisions after the elections.
After joining the dots, hard landing remains the base case scenario.