China Center - University of Macerata’s Post

In this month's spotlight we take a deep dive into the role of China in global economic and financial markets. #wealthmanagement #investmentmanagement #privatefamilyoffice

🔴🇨🇳🇺🇸 (Part 2 of 2) What the West gets wrong about China A conversation with economist 🔸Jin Keyu 金刻羽, author of The New China Playbook, on why cultural misunderstandings are making it harder to manage China’s rise and avoid future conflict. 16 May 2023 at 21:00 GMT+8 By Adam Minter Bloomberg Opinion columnist ❇️AM: Will financial reform require political reform❓ 🔶KJ: Well, I think to solve that problem, you need the policymakers to be able to let go. I’m not sure that’s an issue of political reform, or the passing of a generation of leaders who like control. It’s a deeply ingrained dilemma. ❇️AM: In recent weeks, there have been increased reports about reduced business information transparency in China, including moves to restrict outsiders’ access to financial data. It feels to me like the kind of top-down action that might stifle economic growth and investment. How do you explain it❓ 🔶KJ: This example shows that going forward, security concerns will more often than not take precedence over economic growth. These restrictions won’t necessarily affect the dynamism of the domestic economy, which is more ground-up than top down these days, but the lack of transparency will likely spook foreign investors. It contradicts China’s recent endeavors to open up the financial economy to the rest of the world. ❇️AM: Toward the end of the book you argue that Chinese capital will complement U.S. capital, not replace it. What did you mean by that❓ 🔶KJ: In the developing world, the demand for safe assets and dollar assets will outstrip the ability of the US to supply them. After the 2008 financial crisis, there was a big liquidity gap for developing countries. The US basically had swap lines with six of its friends — you know, the more advanced economies — leaving this gaping hole for emerging markets. And so China provided assistance to many of them. If we see another global financial crisis, you’ll need the two largest economies to work together to coordinate assistance and provide liquidity backstops. The US can’t do it alone. ❇️AM: Finally: Someone is late for a meeting and you only have a few minutes to convince them to read your book. What do you say❓ 🔶KJ: We live in an increasingly dangerous world because of the lack of understanding between countries like China and the US. As in any relationship, I believe that having a better understanding and being able to see each other’s perspectives can help us find more common goals to work on. And my book tells you why. ❇️🇨🇳🇺🇸 (Part 1 of 2) What the West gets wrong about China A conversation with economist 🔸Jin Keyu 金刻羽 🌐 https://lnkd.in/gPMdskmf ❇️ APPENDICES 🔶🇨🇳 China has a robust layer of economists who weigh in pugnaciously to discussions on official policy. Emmanuel Daniel Chairman, The Asian Banker 🌐 https://lnkd.in/gSG8KXTt .

China’s government work report this week signalled robust support for the new economy going forward, aligning with the messaging coming out of the Central Economic Work Conference late last year. Policy stimulus signals, while still supportive, remained moderate overall, consistent with our expectations going into the two sessions. Our text-based quantitative analysis filters out key themes of the report and examines their implications. We've made this note available for free for a limited time. Happy reading! #china #twosessions #npc #workreport #neweconomy #artificialintelligence #stimulus #macroeconomy #assetmanagement #investing #research #textanalytics https://lnkd.in/gpVbXAuv

🌍 China's Economic Stimuli: What Are the Implications for Global Markets? 🚀 China's recent injection of trillions of Yuan into its economy could have a significant impact on global markets, from ETFs to cryptocurrencies. What opportunities and risks are on the horizon? Check out my detailed analysis and learn how this could affect your investments in the latest blog post! 🔎 ➡️ Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/duiMT9A4

#LPLResearch dives into the challenges and issues facing China in 2024 and how it impacts global investors. Read more now in the #WeeklyMarketCommentary https://hubs.li/Q02fHlsj0

https://lnkd.in/d6rQ7VYQ Home News Tech Finance Leadership Well Recommends Fortune 500 COMMENTARY ·GLOBALIZATION Trade and investment data in the last two years dispel the deglobalization and decoupling myths as U.S.-China competition ignites ‘reglobalization’ BYKENNETH DEWOSKIN AND ALAN MACCHARLES May 15, 2024 at 5:26 AM MDT U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holds talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Jul. 8, 2023 in Beijing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holds talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Jul. 8, 2023 in Beijing. MARK SCHIEFELBEIN—GETTY IMAGES Recently, a trend toward deglobalization has been taken as a given, prompted by the rise of protectionism, nativism, and a series of highly costly supply chain and market access disruptions. However, the trade and investment data of the last two years and the many plans of major multinational corporations (MNCs) challenge the concepts of “deglobalization” and “decoupling.” The grand shift from the deglobalization paradigm Deglobalization has been a major framework for analyzing global business trends for well over a decade, accelerating and expanding in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and then again during the G2 trade war and COVID-19 crisis. Reaching back to Joseph Stiglitz’s 2002 best-seller Globalization and Its Discontents, a stream of subsequent analysts, including Mohamed A. El-Erian, Mathew J. Burrows and Robert A. Manning, and many others described changing domestic politics, trade economics, risk mitigation concerns, and the broadening scope of national security to include issues such as technology and data. Stiglitz updated his own work to capture the domestic political trends in his 2018 article, Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

"The Politburo meeting also showed that China’s top leaders are aware of the problems on the ground and are willing to face them, removing another source of anxiety for investors. For some time, China has sent confusing signals to the market, going so far as to label not-so-positive economic views and comments as unwelcome or even acts of hostility." If that was the case, I hope it lasts until they are almost out of the woods. "China’s national security ministry threatened to go after those who dared to “short” the country’s assets through words or actions. Such warnings frightened investors away, as there’s no point going “long” if going “short” is not allowed." Not only China, but also Korea. But China does get a bad rap. "The Politburo statement last week, however, stated that China must face difficulties in a “straightforward” manner, an acknowledgement that the country’s economic woes are not just narrative nonsense to be rebuffed but real challenges to be tackled." "But it should be noted Beijing’s policy shift is much more than a cyclical adjustment. The change in tone from China’s top leaders in itself marks a milestone in the history of Beijing’s economic management. China’s leadership is showing the world that it listens, cares and respects the market. This deserves applause, and that is why the market reacted so fervently." Let me amend the last sentence: "China’s leadership is showing the world that it (can) listen, care and respect the market. This deserves applause, and that is why the market reacted so fervently." Is it enough? Because jobs don't magically appear without the means to pay salaries - sustainably. "More often than not, the state and the market were not on the same page, resulting in unnecessary competition, tensions, and losses. China’s once vibrant private equity market is a typical example of how interventionist state policies and government money have elbowed out market-oriented practices and institutions." Let me point out that Beijing has wanted to reduce local govt debt since 2014 (it grew), tried to cool the real estate industry since 2017 (trade war happened, Beijing blinked), tried to rationalise the steel industry (output kept going up) - it is as if directives were suggestions. And they were, Beijing told them to do A but not let GDP go down - the local govts responded by not letting GDP go down and continuing A, B, C, .... Beijing accepted it for years. "Some economists are right to note that Beijing’s latest policy package is not a silver bullet. China’s structural problems such as an ageing population and geopolitical tensions have no quick fixes, and there is still a question mark of how many trillions of yuan the finance ministry can set aside to arrest a property market slump." Li Qiang looks relieved though - which makes me think that the seniors in CCP told Xi to let Li handle the economy - because let's be frank, you're a tyro at understanding market forces.

Immerse yourself in our latest blog and get clued in on how China's financial turbulence - through its fluctuating stock market, deflation issues, and real estate challenges - could potentially sway global economic progression. Stay informed, stay ahead. #GlobalInvesting #EconomicTrends #ChinaFinancialLandscape

Immerse yourself in our latest blog and get clued in on how China's financial turbulence - through its fluctuating stock market, deflation issues, and real estate challenges - could potentially sway global economic progression. Stay informed, stay ahead. #GlobalInvesting #EconomicTrends #ChinaFinancialLandscape

Immerse yourself in our latest blog and get clued in on how China's financial turbulence - through its fluctuating stock market, deflation issues, and real estate challenges - could potentially sway global economic progression. Stay informed, stay ahead. #GlobalInvesting #EconomicTrends #ChinaFinancialLandscape