Christian T. Healy’s Post

IMO… The mismatch between the Arsenal of Democracy & the Arsenal of Autocracy is the biggest dilemma in all of macro & geopolitics. USA has the fiscal runway, but not the supply chains, factories, capital goods, & skilled workers to ramp up production at the necessary scale to restore conventional military deterrence. Meanwhile, China & its Axis partners/proxies are able to ramp up production more easily. This is a HUGE deal considering that the free world is built on a surplus of arms. America is in trouble & needs to rethink our foreign policy priorities. Instead of arguing over whether we should pour our finite resources into Europe, the Middle East, or the Indo-Pacific, we need to have a real conversation about what resources are required to defend our interests in the Americas (i.e., Western Hemisphere) First. Only then can we reasonably consider what resources can be spared for the defense of other regions. This is basic stuff & shouldn’t be controversial.

https://lnkd.in/gP3SeyMQ The U.S. Can Afford a Bigger Military. We Just Can’t Build It. America’s industrial base struggles to ramp up defense production while China’s churns out ever more weapons Greg Ip Updated Dec. 6, 2023 12:10 am ET When the Center for Strategic and International Studies simulated a war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, the wargame ended with Taiwan still free, at grievous cost. The U.S. loses two aircraft carriers and up to 20 destroyers and cruisers; China sees more than 50 major surface warships sunk. What looks like a draw, though, becomes a Chinese victory before long. As Eric Labs, a navy analyst for the Congressional Budget Office explains, China can replace lost ships far more quickly. In the past two years, its navy has grown by 17 cruisers and destroyers; it would take the U.S. six years to build the same number under current conditions, he said.

Any conflict with China over Taiwan will likely be naval in nature, but is the naval component the only factor that dictates our national security objectives? Let's not fall victim to bullwhip supply chain economics and overbuild a shipyard industry. Instead, let's consider anti-naval capabilities in our other industrial bases. Going toe-to-toe in naval capacity in the next five years sounds like a long-term loser. We should find and exploit leverage elsewhere (air, land, space, cyber). #nationalsecurity #china #taiwan #naval #conflict #military #defense #defenseindustry Source: https://lnkd.in/gWyA3yqw

The Pentagon recently planned to establish new military repair hubs across Asia Pacific region; read the complete news for more details! Visit Here - https://lnkd.in/ehb72TZk #tradeflock #tradeflockasia #asia #pentagonupdate #defensenews #militarystrategy #asiapacificsecurity #globaldefense #defenseinfrastructure #pentagonasia #militarydevelopment #defenseindustry #securityupdates #globalsecurity #militarylogistics #asiapacificnews #militarysupport #strategicdefense #securitystrategy

Interesting read, but of course, the best way to win is to prevent the conflict through strategic deterrence before it even begins.

How to prevent US military bases in the first archipelago from being destroyed by the PLA in the event of an armed conflict? - "Once a large-scale conflict erupts between China and the United States, all U.S. military bases in the first island chain could be destroyed, with the danger of losing their foothold." - This is the dire scenario described repeatedly by the U.S. Navy in recent years; to prevent the nightmare from coming true, the Pentagon has mobilized the U.S. business community and think tanks to help them come up with tricks. - The famous U.S. ship design and construction firm "Gibbs and Cox" has proposed the "mobile arsenal platform" (MODEP) concept, designed specifically for this purpose, aimed at inactive and redundant offshore oil platforms converted into a fully armed mobile maritime platform. - The MODEP concept is designed to convert inactive and redundant offshore oil platforms into fully armed mobile maritime missile and supply bases to improve the U.S. Navy's arming and supply capabilities in the Western Pacific. - The idea of converting oil drilling platforms into maritime military bases has been around for a long time. Already since the end of the Gulf War, the Pentagon was acutely aware that for large-scale military operations it was necessary to rely on the ports of allied countries, which is why it had planned to build floating platforms deployed in international waters as semi-permanent military fortresses. - However, a 1999 study report by the US Office of Naval Research rejected this idea because it had obvious weaknesses such as high costs and vulnerability to missile attacks. - A 2018 US Navy study also mentioned the weaknesses of these types of semi-permanent maritime military installations, although advances in air defense and anti-missile technology help improve the security of such maritime platforms. Read more on #ExtremaRatio https://lnkd.in/dG3xpM6P

How to prevent US military bases in the first archipelago from being destroyed by the PLA in the event of an armed conflict? - "Once a large-scale conflict erupts between China and the United States, all U.S. military bases in the first island chain could be destroyed, with the danger of losing their foothold." - This is the dire scenario described repeatedly by the U.S. Navy in recent years; to prevent the nightmare from coming true, the Pentagon has mobilized the U.S. business community and think tanks to help them come up with tricks. - The famous U.S. ship design and construction firm "Gibbs and Cox" has proposed the "mobile arsenal platform" (MODEP) concept, designed specifically for this purpose, aimed at inactive and redundant offshore oil platforms converted into a fully armed mobile maritime platform. - The MODEP concept is designed to convert inactive and redundant offshore oil platforms into fully armed mobile maritime missile and supply bases to improve the U.S. Navy's arming and supply capabilities in the Western Pacific. - The idea of converting oil drilling platforms into maritime military bases has been around for a long time. Already since the end of the Gulf War, the Pentagon was acutely aware that for large-scale military operations it was necessary to rely on the ports of allied countries, which is why it had planned to build floating platforms deployed in international waters as semi-permanent military fortresses. - However, a 1999 study report by the US Office of Naval Research rejected this idea because it had obvious weaknesses such as high costs and vulnerability to missile attacks. - A 2018 US Navy study also mentioned the weaknesses of these types of semi-permanent maritime military installations, although advances in air defense and anti-missile technology help improve the security of such maritime platforms. Read more on #ExtremaRatio https://lnkd.in/debG96TZ

"In the years following Desert Storm, China recognized it needed to harness similar budgetary trade space between its domains. The People’s Liberation Army shrunk its land force to strengthen naval, air and space forces. Now it is time for the U.S. to follow a similar path." The author suggests the U.S. take a page out of the PRC's playbook by cutting Army funding in favor of a USAF/USSF plus up. Good move? Also, is the Army a "less important service" in the Indo-Pacific fight? #fy2025ndaa #indopacific #capitalparkpartners

In my latest article for The Hill, I discuss why Iran's military capabilities - especially their A2/AD capabilities - could cause serious consequences for the United States in any theoretic military campaign. https://lnkd.in/gtuV5mDG

Munitions might currently be the most stressed element of our military industrial base, but everything from boots and uniforms to Joint Strike Fighters is optimized for low rate production rates with supply chains that are brittle and not secure. This must change and change fast if we are to deter China and the other rogue destabilizing powers that are hell brand on bringing down the current international rules based order, which while not perfect, is better than any articulated alternative I’ve ever heard of.