Christos Makridis’ Post

“Employers added 303,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday. It was the 39th straight month of job growth. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 percent in February. The continuing strength, labor market analysts say, may increase confidence among investors and the Federal Reserve that the U.S. economy has reached a healthy equilibrium in which a steady roll of commercial activity, growing employment and rising wages coexist. It’s a remarkable change from a year ago, when top financial analysts were largely convinced that a recession was only months away. From late 2021 to early 2023, inflation was outstripping wage gains, but that now appears to have firmly shifted, even as wage increases cool from their peak average rates in 2022. Average hourly earnings for workers rose 0.3 percent in March from the previous month and were up 4.1 percent from March 2023.”

Halfway through 2024, the June Employment Report suggests a slight cooling in job gains, but overall employment activity remains soundly stable. ✨ Here are the main takeaways: ➕ The US added 206,000 jobs in June, down from 215,000 in May. ⬆️ The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, the first time above 4% since November 2021. 🏥 Job growth was mainly in government and health care, with 70,000 jobs added in the public sector. 📉 Wage growth slowed, with hourly earnings up 0.3% for the month and 3.9% annually, the lowest in three years. See the full report below for more details. CC: Kellen Smith - Managing Partner https://lnkd.in/e7-2PjyH

Employers added 114,000 jobs in July, reflecting a weakening labor market, as two years of higher interest rates begin to weigh on even the strongest parts of the economy. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, rose to 4.3 percent the weakest showing since 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists have worried that a weaker showing in the jobs report could signal the beginning of a downturn. Overall, hourly wage growth also slowed to 0.2 percent from the previous month, growing by 3.6 percent in the past year, providing evidence that pay gains will not spark further inflation. Even as layoffs and the unemployment rate remain low by historical standards, the labor market is softer by many measures. Employers are hiring at the slowest pace in a decade, excluding the pandemic shutdown, job openings have slowed considerably though remain higher than before the pandemic, and workers are not switching jobs as much. Top policymakers at the Federal Reserve have taken note of the slower labor market, indicating a September rate cut is possible, after two years of high interest rates have curbed inflation, weighing on the broader economy and, increasingly, jobs. “This is the result of higher interest rates,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at the jobs site ZipRecruiter. “They’re holding back business investment [in hiring]. They’re making it prohibitively costly for businesses to get loans to expand. And so you have a sort of broad-based private sector slowdown.” Employers added the most jobs in health care, construction, in transportation and warehousing, and government. The health care sector led the gains adding 55,000 jobs in July and has buoyed the labor market as other industries have sputtered, due to high demand from an aging population. Construction added 25,000 jobs in July, reflecting remarkable resilience. Most jobs were added among specialty trade contractors. Transportation and warehouse added 14,000 jobs, after hitting a recent low in January — a recalibration after a massive expansion during the e-commerce boom of the pandemic days. Most of July’s job gains were in delivery and storage. Nearly all other major private industries barely grew last month, and some shrank. The information sector, which includes some tech jobs, lost 20,000 jobs in July, as higher interest rates have brought hiring to a halt. Manufacturing, financial services, wholesale trade, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality added little or no jobs in July.

U.S. employers defied expectations by adding a robust 303,000 jobs in March, signaling continued strength in the labor market and surpassing economists' forecasts. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor. The impressive job gains, coupled with steady economic growth, are likely to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates and monetary policy in the coming months.

🏢 June 2024 Jobs Report: What Labor Market Data Says About the Economy ✅ Employers added 206,000 jobs in June, slightly higher than expected. ✅ May and April hiring levels were revised sharply lower.  ✅ Unemployment cracked 4% for the first time since November 2021. ✅ Workers’ pay continues to rise, with average hourly earnings up 3.9% in June.  ✅ The unemployment rate ticked above 4%, hitting 4.1% in June.  ✅ Slowing job growth combined with slowing inflation reinforces hopes that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates in September. Click the link below to read the full report from NBCNews #Economy #JobsReport #LaborMarket #Unemployment #FederalReserve

U.S. Employers Scaled Back Hiring In April But Still Added 175,000 Jobs Welcomed by the Federal Reserve, which has kept interest rates at a two-decade high to fight persistently elevated inflation. Hourly wages rose a less-than-expected 0.2% from March and 3.9% from a year earlier, the smallest annual gain since June 2021. The problem with inflation is corporations are being greedy and taking more than they are entitled to take, thereby causing the Fed to keep rates high. It has absolutely nothing to do with employees , consumers , or job seekers. It's the wealthy never saying enough and the stock market needing growth 📈 value for stocks.

ADP data show private sector employment fell short of expectations in August U.S. private sector employment rose less than expected in August, the latest sign of a continued (albeit gradual) slowdown in the U.S. labor market. Data from employment data processing firm ADP showed that private sector jobs rose by 99,000 in August, while the number of jobs added in July was revised down to 111,000. It was the weakest month since January 2021 for the data. Economists had previously expected the figure to come in at 144,000, up from an initial 122,000 in July. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement, “After two years of high growth, the downward trend in the job market has led us to hire at a slower-than-normal pace.” Elsewhere on Thursday, separate data showed that the number of first-time U.S. jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 31 was 227,000, down 5,000 from a revised 232,000 the previous week. Previous forecasts had called for the figure to be unchanged from the previous week's initial reading of 231,000. While markets will likely be watching the returns closely, the key data this week will be the more comprehensive nonfarm payrolls report from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Economists predicted that the U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs last month, up from 114,000 the previous month.July's job totals came in well below expectations, triggering a broader market slide as traders worried about the possibility of a U.S. recession. The figures come as the Fed prepares for its next two-day policy meeting on September 17-18th. Investors widely expect the Fed to cut borrowing costs, currently at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%, by 25 basis points.

August Job Gains Likely to Trigger Interest Rate Cut  U.S. employers added 142,000 new jobs in August, a solid number but below expectations and yet another signal of a continued slowdown in the labor market, according to the latest employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hiring has been decelerating all year, and this month’s employment report is expected to be a big factor in determining whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates—and by how much—in an attempt to avoid a recession. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August. Job openings are at their lowest point since early 2021, and employers are hiring at among the lowest rates (outside of the pandemic) since 2014. Economists expect the weakening jobs picture to push the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates when it meets Sept. 17-18. The main question is how aggressive the action will be. Takeaway for employers: In conjunction with other recent evidence, today’s report reinforces the growing narrative that the labor market has cooled significantly, said Justin Ladner, senior labor economist at SHRM. “To be clear, the U.S. labor market still remains tight by historical standards, and job growth is still relatively strong overall. However, monthly employment gains have fallen somewhat and are becoming more concentrated in specific sectors. Furthermore, wage growth has continued to moderate steadily, and the super-heated conditions of recent years have given way to conditions that much more closely resemble those that existed immediately before the pandemic.” Source: SHRM  

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March 2024, marking an acceleration in the pace of hiring. 🚀 J.P. Morgan #EmploymentTrends #LaborMarket #EconomicIndicators #JobOpenings #WageGrowth #FederalReserve #InflationOutlook #InterestRates

  It doesn’t match our experience when going outside these days, but there’s a cooling trend in the job market.   Employment slowed in June with employers adding 206k jobs, close to what economists expected. Downward revisions, making for 111k fewer jobs for the previous two months, take some of the shine off the as-expected payrolls gain.   So far in 2024, monthly job gains have averaged 222k jobs, down from 251k last year and 377k in 2022.   The Labor Department reports the nation’s unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021. The jobless rate has now risen 0.7% from the historically low level of 3.4% seen early last year. The question becomes how much higher does it go?    Beneath the headline numbers, private sector employers added just 136k jobs, with government accounting for 70k jobs.   Job creation is increasingly uneven. Beyond government, health care added 49k and social assistance was responsible for 34k jobs. After that, construction was responsible for 27k. Leisure and hospitality, which had been a huge generator of employment, added just 7k jobs last month. Business/professional services and manufacturing saw job losses.   There was a deceleration in wage growth. Average hourly earnings are up 3.9% over the past year.   With the Federal Reserve seeing inflation data in the statistical neighborhood of where it wants it to be, it is expected to cut interest rates in September. If the job market continues to cool and inflation allows, the central bank will shift some of its attention away from the stable prices part of its mandate to increasingly focus on the other issue which is maximum employment. What are you seeing in the job market and broader economy right now? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below.