Chuck Cowan’s Post

The US Labor Department revises 12-month job growth down by a massive 818,000 jobs. In other words, the US economy actually created 818,000 LESS jobs than initially reported. Furthermore, the US economy LOST 192,000 jobs in Q3 2023 and added 344,000 jobs in Q4 2023, according to the BED survey released by BLS. On the other hand, nonfarm payrolls data showed that the US labor market added 663,000 and 577,000 new jobs in Q3 and Q4 2023. This is a jaw dropping 1,088,000 difference in job count over just two quarters. What is happening here? https://lnkd.in/gsieN4TK

The US May labour market report contained mixed news for the Fed. Payrolls growth came in stronger than expected at +272k, a touch stronger than the estimated breakeven rate of +265k. Solid jobs growth continues to be fuelled by resilient demand and the strong immigration-led growth in labour market supply (see my last post). Employment was weaker in the household survey which saw the unemployment rate tick higher from 3.9% to 4.0%. The disappointment (for the Fed, not workers) came in wage growth which printed higher than expected at annual growth of 4.1%. At the same time, the Fed will be taking some encouragement from the recent sharper falls in labour demand as indicated in the Job Openings survey published earlier this week. All grist for the mill as the FOMC heads into next week’s rate setting meeting.

The job market is heating up again. The US economy added 254k jobs in September, well above expectations of 147K with unemployment falling to 4.1%, August payrolls were also revised up +17k to +159k, along with July being revised up +55k to +144k. Market expectations of deeper rate cuts are certainly being challenged as the bond market is now forecasting a 25 percent reduction rather than 50 at the next meeting #jobs #economy #fed #interestrates

Incredible news on the job front! U.S. payrolls jumped an astonishing 303,000 in March, marking the biggest rise in nearly a year. Alongside this, the unemployment rate dropped, indicating an economy powered by a strong labor market. The numbers even exceeded all projections, giving us a clear indicator of a robust and thriving business environment. These aren't just statistics; they're a testament to the hard work of everyone contributing to our thriving economy. As we continue to navigate the professional landscape, it's essential to recognize and celebrate these wins that illustrate the resilience and growth of our economy. This data undoubtedly brings a host of opportunities for businesses looking to expand and individuals seeking new professional avenues. So, are you ready to take advantage of this booming job market? #USJobs #Economy #JobMarket #BusinessNews What's your strategy for leveraging these promising market conditions? News Source → https://lnkd.in/giCPBmxs

The U.S. labor market strengthened during the month of March as revealed by the latest data from the government this morning. Employers added 303,000 net new jobs to their payrolls in the latest month, which represented a much stronger than expected reading versus the 214,000 consensus estimate. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 3.8% this past month, while the labor force participation rate increased to 62.7% during March. Job gains were fairly broad based during the latest month, led by gains within the health care, government and leisure and hospitality sectors of the economy. With the labor market remaining vibrant through the first quarter of 2024, this may result in the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold longer than what many investors had previously forecasted.

US job growth slowed more than expected in April. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs, the smallest increase in 6 months. In addition, revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 22,000 fewer jobs created in March and February than previously reported. This jobs report falls far below the yearly average of 233,000 jobs and puts it more in line with pre-pandemic mean which is 190,000. Signs of a cooling labor market bring some optimism about the possibility of a sooner rather than later cut from the #FederalReserve. #jobsmarket #macrobond #bls

Labor Market Updates The labor market has shown signs of cooling in recent months. Nonfarm payrolls increased by an average of 177,000 per month in the second quarter, marking the slowest growth since the spring of 2020. The unemployment rate reached 4.1% in June, the highest level since late 2021. Additionally, the average hourly earnings growth in June was among the slowest year-over-year increases since mid-2021. The previously hot job market from late 2021 through early 2023 appears to have cooled significantly.

The latest U.S. jobs report revealed that the labor market continues to soften, with only 142,000 nonfarm payrolls added in August—falling short of the expected 160,000. Although the unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.2%, concerns remain high due to downward revisions in previous months' data, indicating a weaker job market than initially reported. This was the weakest August for job growth since 2017. With financial markets reacting cautiously, it’s clear the economic outlook remains uncertain. As we approach the end of the year, the labor market will be a key factor to watch. https://ow.ly/fvmX50Tj40u

The latest jobs report strengthens the case for a 25-basis point rate cut by the Fed this month. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 142,000 in August, lower than the 202,000 average monthly gain over the past year but still in line with recent trends. Despite the slowdown, job gains are within expectations given elevated borrowing costs. We expect an average of 120k to 130k jobs per month through year-end, with unemployment steady at 4.2% to 4.3%. This report provides the soft landing the Fed has been aiming for—steady job creation, wage growth, and strong labor participation. It’s also a clear improvement over July’s data. With rates expected to fall to around 3% by 2025, the labor market should see further support in the coming year. #LaborMarket #JobReport #EconomicOutlook #FedRate

〽️How will the labor market impact your talent strategy? ➡️ The U.S. economy added far fewer jobs than expected in July, with nonfarm payrolls totaling 114,000, falling short of the forecasted 185,000. ➡️ This data, released by the Labor Department, signals a weakening labor market. ➡️ Additionally, June's figures were revised downward to 179,000 jobs. ➡️ The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3%. #USEconomy #LaborMarket #JobsReport