Clocktower Group’s Post

Geopolitics has not mattered ONE BIT in 2023. That will change in 2024. Given asset performance throughout 2023, it would be simple to conclude that geopolitics did not matter for the markets. For example, since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the German DAX has reached all-time highs, while oil prices have collapsed. Meanwhile, Israel’s war against Hamas has had no impact on any markets anywhere whatsoever! In 2024, the US election will matter for investors. But not because of what will happen after the election, but rather for how American establishment elites react ahead of it. For the first time since the nineteenth century, the US could see more than two viable candidates run for president. The electoral math could be exceedingly complicated. As such, despite wars in Ukraine, Israel, and other spots around the world (Guyana!), the greatest “geo-macro” issue of 2024 will be the Fed’s highly politicized reaction function to the upcoming US election. This is the macro story of 2024, the capture of the Fed by the political risk of the upcoming general election. By that logic, equity markets could cheerlead the laggard Fed, even if the USD and bonds do not. To read all about this thesis – and my team’s other macro forecasts for 2024 – please leave us your details here (https://lnkd.in/gRi8ZcxG) and we'll be in touch soon.

Centre Funds' James Abate On Bloomberg Radio - Is The Surge In Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Spending Sustainable And How To Interpret The Myriad Of Geopolitical Risks - January 22, 2024?  Listen Here: https://lnkd.in/eYht87-M #mutualfunds #investing #investmentmanagement #equities #AI #artificialintelligence #inflation #bloomberg #bloombergnews

This week on the Altiplano, Laurent Berrebi continued analysing global macroeconomic trends in his usual Weekly Balloon Pickings, highlighting China’s economic slowdown and its global implications.   Sophie Biro continues her analysis of the seaweed market, its strong growth potential, and investment opportunities within a sustainable development framework.   Maxence le Gouvello du Timat published two notes on US banks following the releases for the second quarter of 2024. One of the notes focuses on our investment case for each of the eight banks we cover, as well as a detailed analysis of key data for the sector. The second is our selection of a representative sample of qualitative management comments.   Patrick Artus granted us his 24th Q&A session, addressing economic and political changes, particularly focusing on the French economy in a broader context but also on the ECB, US elections, and the technology sector.   David Owen & Marchel Alexandrovich discussed the economic and monetary challenges the United Kingdom is facing, with a focus on government policies and those of the Bank of England.   Ian Whittaker shared his views on Vivendi's strategy and its decision to split the group into several blocks. He discussed the forms and strategies of the different divisions.   Richard Windsor shared several insights on major technology ecosystems. He notably discussed investment opportunities post-spin-off at Nebius, the risks of overvaluation/bubble in AI, his views on recent Alphabet results, Nvidia's strategies to strengthen its position in the AI ecosystem, and Meta’s role in AI through Llama 3.1. #artificialintelligence #investmentresearch #macroresearch #energytransition

🔵🔵🔵 https://lnkd.in/eRs89s3U Very honored to contribute my second guest blog post on Econbrowser, written this time, with Dr. William Ginn. I am deeply grateful to Menzie Chinn. Remarks and comments are welcome, as always 🤠 How do geopolitical risk shocks impact monetary policy? Based on a panel of 20 economies, we develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via linear and nonlinear local projections (LP) regression models. First, the linear model suggests that the interest rate remains relatively unchanged in the event of an uncertainty shock. Second, the result turns out to be different in the nonlinear model, where the policy reaction is muted during an expansionary state, which is operating in a manner proportional to the transitory shock. However, geopolitical risks can amplify the policy reaction during a non-expansionary period.

What did March bring for markets? Senior Economist Bob Cunneen outlines how continued optimism about the prospects for Artificial Intelligence ‘AI’ helped to overcome concerns over sticky inflation to deliver strong gains. Read on for more https://lnkd.in/ezJ7chtq

Geopolitical fragmentation and other #MegaForces – or big structural shifts – help explain economic and market outcomes not only long term, but right now, says the BlackRock Investment Institute. Read more 👉https://1blk.co/3QsctfP

Geopolitical fragmentation and other #MegaForces – or big structural shifts – help explain economic and market outcomes not only long term, but right now, says the BlackRock Investment Institute. Read more 👉https://1blk.co/4bb9dO2

Geopolitical fragmentation and other #MegaForces – or big structural shifts – help explain economic and market outcomes not only long term, but right now, says the BlackRock Investment Institute. Read more 👉https://1blk.co/3UpCPAk

Geopolitical fragmentation and other #MegaForces – or big structural shifts – help explain economic and market outcomes not only long term, but right now, says the BlackRock Investment Institute. Read more 👉https://1blk.co/3y9GF9e

Global Forecast 2024 is now live!! Our team has worked tirelessly to review 700+ expert predictions about what will happen in 2024, and we've summed it all in a beautiful flagship report. It covers: - Consensus of predictions by experts about the year ahead - Deep dive: rate hikes, risks for 2024, and their potential impact on markets - Special focuses: artificial intelligence, geopolitics, global elections - Investing playbook for 2024 based on expert consensus It's available to all VC+ members today, and then we're going to answer any questions VC+ members have in a follow-up video later this month. If you're not a VC+ member, you can subscribe here: https://lnkd.in/da6yWwsp