Is it time to reexamine China? In February 2024, we published our thoughts to our clients right after the leadership change of the CSRC (the stock market regulator) on Lunar New Year’s Eve, it is rare to see a leadership change and a strong signal of the shift of Xi’s priorities. Since then, the MSCI China Index was up nearly 20% from the bottom, the Chinese market has technically entered a bull market that few investors thought possible just some months ago. Last week, we hosted a small allocator dinner in San Francisco where we kicked off with the singular question – is China un-investable? One attendee asked if that is still even a question. Yet, there are many nuanced questions at this time: - Are investors all of a sudden changing from “can’t have it” to “can’t miss it”? - What drove the latest market rally and subsequent about-face in investor sentiment? - Who is actually buying Chinese equities right now? (offshore markets significantly outperformed the onshore markets) - Last but not the least, how long will it last this time? With these questions on our mind, we wrote a short piece to summarize and elaborate on our observations from the intel we collected from global allocators, global fund managers, local fund managers, and prime brokers. In short, we concluded that it’s less about the China self-recovery but more about the alternatives (e.g., Japan, India, etc.) are self-deteriorating. Interested in reading the piece? Reach out to irteam@clocktowergroup.com
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What does the current market volatility reflect? Our Asia ex-Japan CIO for Core Investment, Ecaterina Bigos, shared her views in a CNBC interview. 👉 The significant market sell-off was driven by a confluence of factors: unmet expectations on returns from Artificial Intelligence spending, concerns over lagged effects from tight monetary policy in the US, along with growing concerns over a more aggressive policy normalization in Japan. 👉Volatility is expected, with the data pipeline over the next few weeks closely watched for confirmation of positive interaction between monetary policy and growth. 👉 With market performance increasingly dependent on growth, assets supported by secular shifts and strategic initiatives are expected to stay resilient. More insights on current market: https://bit.ly/4cts7Qz Chris Iggo
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What does the current market volatility reflect? Our Asia ex-Japan CIO for Core Investment, Ecaterina Bigos, shared her views in a CNBC interview. 👉 The significant market sell-off was driven by a confluence of factors: unmet expectations on returns from Artificial Intelligence spending, concerns over lagged effects from tight monetary policy in the US, along with growing concerns over a more aggressive policy normalization in Japan. 👉Volatility is expected, with the data pipeline over the next few weeks closely watched for confirmation of positive interaction between monetary policy and growth. 👉 With market performance increasingly dependent on growth, assets supported by secular shifts and strategic initiatives are expected to stay resilient. More insights on current market: https://bit.ly/4cqv1We Chris Iggo
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AI Maestro & Flutter Guru: Elevating Your Business with Style! 💼🚀 Let’s craft the extraordinary and lead the digital wave!
🚀 China's Economic Game Changer: Will it Repeat Japan's Mistakes? 🤔💥 Goldman Sachs just dropped a bombshell report on China's stock market! 🎯📈 Brace yourselves, because this could be a game-changer! 🌟 They claim that despite the similarities to Japan's stagnation, there are 40 stocks that can SURVIVE and THRIVE! 🚀💪 Imagine being part of a market that defies the odds! 😱🔥 But wait, there's more! Morgan Stanley's expert suggests that China MUST shift gears towards fiscal easing and consumer-driven growth! 🛠️💰 It's a bold strategy, but it just might work! 💡 China's top officials are also stepping up their game! Premier Li Qiang is about to ROCK Davos, and Vice Premier He Lifeng is wooing global financial executives! 🥂🌍 They're ready to take on the world! And don't forget the "little giants" Goldman Sachs found! Friendess Electronics, Asymchem Laboratories, StarPower Semiconductor, and SICC are STRONG contenders! 🏆💥 The Chinese economy is facing challenges, but it's all about how they RISE above them! 🌅✨ Will they achieve sustainable growth? Only time will tell! ⏰💪 Don't miss out on this thrilling journey! Click the and uncover China's secret playbook! 📚🔓 #ChinaEconomy #GameChanger #InvestmentOpportunity #GoldmanSachs #ChinaRising #DontMissOut #TimeToInvest #ThrivingMarket #SustainableGrowth article: https://buff.ly/47x8AMp
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The tumultuous state of China's stock market not only reverberates through the halls of professional traders but also directly impacts the lives of everyday investors, adding a personal and poignant layer to the financial narrative. With over 200 million retail investors, many individuals are grappling with shrinking wealth as a result of the market downturn. For instance, an investment of 100,000 yuan ($13,950) in the CSI 300 index at the beginning of 2021 would have dwindled by 36%, while investing in Chinese tech companies listed in Hong Kong would have seen a more significant loss of over 60%. Scenario: "Crisis Deepens" As the crisis in China's stock market deepens, the impact on individual investors intensifies. The economic slowdown becomes more pronounced, and global uncertainties add to the challenges. In the face of adversity, do you think this could be a moment for structural reforms and international collaboration to reshape the future of China's financial landscape? Scenario: "Resilience and Reform" Amidst the financial turmoil, China implements robust reforms, leading to market resilience and a path to recovery. Positive sentiments reignite investor confidence. Considering the interconnectedness of global markets, how might China's recovery influence investment strategies and perceptions in other emerging markets? What lessons could be drawn for navigating financial uncertainties globally?
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Do you still have China exposure? Despite a stock market rout and drop in foreign direct investments, analysts have cautioned against writing off China just yet. While the odds are stacked against China — gloomy business sentiments, a government crackdown on the tech sector, and being termed “uninvestable”, — investors are shifting their attention from the stock market performance to other opportunistic areas with the rise of Chinese tech companies. Deemed a large market with bright spots, albeit with a long and bumpy recovery path, a long-term view is needed for the world’s second largest economy. Tap on our experts’ expertise if you’re keen on venturing into China’s markets today. Continue reading here: https://str.sg/3GNf3 #FirstPlus #ChinaInvestments #ChinaEconomy #ChinaMarket
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Jean Maunoury. Deputy CEO, CIO Research & Investment at iM Global Partner | Performance is born out of people
Despite many investors thinking that China's market is in shambles due to subdued economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and overbearing regulatory breakdowns, Chinese equity indexes have performed in line with other Emerging Markets indexes so far in 2024. So, what are the opportunities offered by China equities? How should investors address this market? During her recent visit to our London office, I had the opportunity to speak with @June Lui, lead Portfolio Manager of Polen Capital's China Growth strategy. Based in Hong Kong, June has twenty years of industry experience and joined Polen Capital over a year ago. We will release a series of 4 videos of this interview, in which June explains where she and her team find opportunities in the Chinese market today, what their investment philosophy is, their experience investing in China and why she decided to join Polen Capital. In this first video, June explained that her team looks for sectors untouched by the short-term volatility in the macro environment and geopolitical tensions, such as healthcare services, energy transition, supply chain management, and industrial automation. According to June, these areas are teeming with robust companies thriving amidst these structural changes, largely unaffected by fleeting macroeconomic policies. She explains her view that the heightened awareness of risks has overshadowed substantial opportunities, creating a fertile ground for fundamental investors. This scenario, she notes, leads to quality companies being available at significant valuation discounts—akin to finding "pearls left on the beach." June’s insights suggest that for discerning investors who focus on fundamentals, now is an opportune time to engage with the Chinese market. The current environment allows for acquiring high-quality assets at reduced prices, creating significant potential for growth and enhanced shareholder returns in a challenging macro environment. #Assetmanagement #InvestmentManagement #Markets #China #Strategy #PeoplePerformance
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Let's talk about China. 2023 will be the third consecutive year of dismal performance of Chinese stock markets. A slow post-pandemic recovery and ongoing geopolitical headlines continued to weigh on investors' appetite for Chinese assets. Before that backdrop, I'm very glad that our investment team has dedicated its Panorama publication to China. The team avoided looking at China through a singular lens and provides different points of view, offering a plurality that is often missing in the current public discourse, particularly when it comes to investing in China. #panorama #china #ubsassetmanagement
UBS-AM Panorama The China edition | UBS Global
ubs.com
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My best entry is within the Company's Market Analysis & Price Forecasting area, with the main objective of carrying out
As of August 2024, market sentiment towards MSCI South Korea ETFs can be broadly categorized as follows: - **Optimists (40%)**: A significant portion of investors remains optimistic, driven largely by the ongoing recovery in the semiconductor sector, with companies like Samsung and SK Hynix leading the charge. Additionally, the potential reclassification of South Korea to "Developed Market" status by MSCI is fueling positive sentiment, as this could lead to increased inflows from institutional investors. - **Neutrals (35%)**: A considerable percentage of market participants are taking a wait-and-see approach. These investors acknowledge the positive factors but remain cautious due to potential risks such as geopolitical tensions with North Korea and global economic uncertainties. They are watching for more concrete signs of sustained growth or stability before making significant investment decisions. - **Pessimists (25%)**: A smaller but notable group of investors is pessimistic about the outlook for MSCI South Korea ETFs. Their concerns stem from recent outflows from key ETFs, which suggest a lack of confidence in the short-term performance. Additionally, some are wary of the ongoing geopolitical risks and potential for global market disruptions that could negatively impact South Korea's economy and, by extension, its ETFs. This breakdown reflects a market that is cautiously optimistic, with a strong belief in the long-term potential of South Korea's tech sector, balanced by concerns over short-term volatility and external risks【16†source】【17†source】.
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Our Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, CFDS, said in a Bloomberg interview yesterday that the market sentiment in China had improved, supported by the better-than-expected Lunar New Year consumption data. She expects there will be more supportive measures in early March during the National People’s Congress, though the weak property sector could continue to drag on market sentiment. Stefanie sees opportunities in China equities in consumer discretionary sectors, IT, and the green sector. Holtze-Jen also pointed out that Bank of Japan’s policies and the Yen’s weakness are driving the strong equity market in Japan. With a technical recession now in Japan, loose monetary conditions still favour Japanese equities. You can watch the interview (starting from 52:12): http://deu.ba/60424xhU2 (When investing, your capital maybe at risk) #privatebanking #wealthmanagement
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THE GREAT CALL OF CHINA: #CHINA IS NOT WITHOUT ITS PROBLEMS, BUT, GIVEN THE SHEER SCALE OF OPPORTUNITIES, WARRANTS FAR MORE THAN PERIPHERAL MARKET STATUS FOR EQUITY INVESTORS, ARGUES JIAN SHI CORTESI. SHE BELIEVES INVESTORS SHOULD LOOK THROUGH THE LINGERING ANTI-CHINA HAZE AND INSTEAD FOCUS ON THE POWERFUL LONGER-TERM GROWTH STORY. While global stock markets have performed surprisingly strongly this year – flying in the face of geopolitical worries and elevated interest rates – China has been a notable exception. The MSCI AC World index climbed by 18.0% in USD terms over the first 11 months of 2023 (to end of November). Meanwhile, the broad-based MSCI China A index has actually fallen by -9.0% over the same period.
Active Thinking: The Great Call of China
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