We just wrapped up our recent China client trip, covering six major cities – Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, Fuzhou, Xiamen, and Ningde – and meeting with a wide range of onshore policymakers, local allocators, academics, fund managers, and corporate CEOs. A few things we noticed while on-the-ground: - On the geopolitical front the most encouraging message we consistently heard during the trip was that China certainly does not want to decouple from the US. A senior policymaker even told us that President Xi made a statement at the recent Central Financial Work Conference that “the US wants to decouple from us, but we will do the exact opposite to prevent the decoupling.” This statement is significant, indicating that Beijing may go to great lengths to stabilize the bilateral relations over the course of 2024. - Emerging investment themes surrounding Chinese companies’ global expansion efforts and additional ideas surrounding lessons learned from Japan’s lost decade. Also, many onshore managers are embracing high dividend yield strategies due to China’s macro malaise and the global high rate environment. - From an economic perspective, in the near-term, Beijing has adopted a data dependent approach in terms of providing support to the economy. Most policymakers we spoke with assured us that there will be more stimulus measures if the economy further weakens. A senior policymaker even said that there will be more issuance of central government bonds similar to the recent one trillion issuance if the economic condition warrants. However, onshore fund managers are generally concerned about this approach as it suggests that Beijing will continue to stay behind the market curve, which would only hurt, rather than boost, investor confidence. Over the medium to long-term, Beijing remains firmly committed to achieving China’s economic transformation, which requires shifting resources from the old-economy industries (real estate and property) to innovation-oriented sectors such as advanced manufacturing and green technologies. Please reach out to irteam@clocktowergroup.com if you’re interested in more insights from our trip. Steve Drobny Wei Liu Kaiwen Wang Qianqi Liao Sherry Wei
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China moves to stabilize capital market, improve confidence China has sent a clear signal that more efforts will be made to stabilize the capital market and improve investor confidence. Policymakers were briefed on the operation of the capital market and considerations for related work at a State Council meeting on Monday. The country will further improve the capital market's fundamental system, pay more attention to maintaining a dynamic balance between investment and financing, enhance the quality and investment value of listed companies, increase flows of medium and long-term funds into the market, and strengthen the market's inherent stability, according to the meeting. The meeting reflects the great significance the authorities attach to the development of the capital market and investors' concerns, said Peng Wensheng, chief analyst with the China International Capital Corporation. #capitalmarket #CSRC #governmentdebts
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“Long-time China investors are betting the nation is poised to recover its momentum even as tensions with the U.S. have left it uninvestable in the eyes of many in the West. Investors including Fang Fenglei, the founder and chairman of private equity firm Hopu, and Fred Hu, the founder and chief executive officer at Primavera Capital Group, both struck an optimistic tone on the country’s long-term growth at the Milken conference in Hong Kong on Tuesday despite challenges brought on by the real estate downturn and U.S. geopolitical tensions. Goodwin Gaw, the founder of Gaw Capital Partners, said China is at a pivot point for restructuring its real estate sector. He added that the reduced interest in China creates opportunities. ‘So, when the world thinks the second-largest economy is uninvestable there will be opportunities,’ Gaw also said at the conference.” “Investors have navigated challenging terrain over the past few years as China has cracked down on broad swaths of its private sector. At the same time, U.S. sanctions have caused a rush of divestments in China and cuts to allocations into the world’s second-largest economy. Foreign businesses’ new direct investment into China slumped to a 30-year low in 2023, with top officials vowing to focus on luring overseas capital this year. But the flip side is also true, according to Fang, who said Chinese investors have also grown ‘disillusioned’ with the U.S. ‘For China, the most important thing is still to work on itself well,’ he said. While China struggled to gain momentum last year, the picture has been more upbeat at the start of this year. Exports have picked up and industrial production and investments have beaten expectations.” “Still, economists say more policy support is needed to reach the ambitious economic growth target of around 5% this year. Despite the Biden administration’s ‘small yard, high fence’ policy curbs against China in core technology and military sectors, Fang said that the country’s abundant talent, deep markets and capital mean it will still grow. His words were echoed by Hu who joined him on the same panel, arguing that China is now rebalancing its economy to become more consumer focused even though it will be painful in the short-term. Hu said that whether Biden or Trump get a second presidential term, the U.S.’s China policy will stay the same. ‘It’s really up to the Chinese themselves, their policies, consumers and entrepreneurs’, he said. ‘If China gets that right, then the U.S. will become less relevant.’”
Veteran China Investors Bet Country Can Thrive Despite U.S. Curbs
caixinglobal.com
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China is set to regain its allure for #GlobalInvestors in 2024 despite ongoing economic concerns, predicts financial advisory firm deVere Group founder and chief executive officer Nigel Green. Green's optimistic outlook follows Beijing’s additional financial support for the country’s beleaguered #PropertyMarket and developers, including hard-hit Country Garden, announced yesterday. Shenzhen, China’s main industrial hub, has also unveiled new homebuying measures to further support the sector critical to China's economy. More at #Proactive #ProactiveInvestors #ChineseStocks #ChineseInvestment http://ow.ly/1htA1053qE9
China could regain allure in 2024 as government rescues beleaguered property market
proactiveinvestors.com.au
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Chinese policymakers are seeking to mobilise about CN¥ 2 trillion (approximately US$278 billion), mainly from the offshore accounts of Chinese state-owned enterprises. This fund is intended to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link. They have also earmarked at least CN¥300 billion of local funds to invest in onshore shares through China Securities Finance Corp. or Central Huijin Investment. The deliberations underscore the elevated sense of urgency among Chinese authorities to stem a sell-off that sent the benchmark CSI 300 Index to a five-year low this week. Calming the nation’s retail investors, many of whom have been bruised by the protracted property downturn, is also seen as key to maintaining social stability. The formation of a state-backed stabilisation fund has been contemplated since at least October, though some investors have raised doubts over its efficacy, as Beijing’s previous rescue efforts have not always worked. China’s property crisis, depressed consumer sentiment, tumbling foreign investment, and diminished confidence among local businesses after years of volatile policymaking are exerting pressure on both the economy and markets. This rescue package is a significant move by the Chinese authorities to stabilise the stock market and restore investor confidence. However, its success will depend on a variety of factors, including the effectiveness of the measures implemented, the response of investors, and the overall economic conditions. Terence Nunis Terence K. J. Nunis, Consultant Chief Executive Officer, Equinox GEMTZ
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The Chinese Government, through state-backed institutions, is backing China-exposed/based ETFs in an attempt to avoid uncontrolled capital outflows. Is this "bridge" intervention sustainable until (and if) China goes back to his growth path? It seems to me that cutting regional deficit might not work if the central government has to implement expensive programs like this one. It would be great to hear your thoughts on the matter.
China steps in to stem outflow from domestically focused ETFs
ft.com
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Chinese policymakers are seeking to mobilise about CN¥ 2 trillion (approximately US$278 billion), mainly from the offshore accounts of Chinese state-owned enterprises. This fund is intended to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link. They have also earmarked at least CN¥300 billion of local funds to invest in onshore shares through China Securities Finance Corp. or Central Huijin Investment. The deliberations underscore the elevated sense of urgency among Chinese authorities to stem a sell-off that sent the benchmark CSI 300 Index to a five-year low this week. Calming the nation’s retail investors, many of whom have been bruised by the protracted property downturn, is also seen as key to maintaining social stability. The formation of a state-backed stabilisation fund has been contemplated since at least October, though some investors have raised doubts over its efficacy, as Beijing’s previous rescue efforts have not always worked. China’s property crisis, depressed consumer sentiment, tumbling foreign investment, and diminished confidence among local businesses after years of volatile policymaking are exerting pressure on both the economy and markets. This rescue package is a significant move by the Chinese authorities to stabilise the stock market and restore investor confidence. However, its success will depend on a variety of factors, including the effectiveness of the measures implemented, the response of investors, and the overall economic conditions. Terence Nunis Terence K. J. Nunis, Consultant Chief Executive Officer, Equinox GEMTZ
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Chinese policymakers are seeking to mobilise about CN¥ 2 trillion (approximately US$278 billion), mainly from the offshore accounts of Chinese state-owned enterprises. This fund is intended to buy shares onshore through the Hong Kong exchange link. They have also earmarked at least CN¥300 billion of local funds to invest in onshore shares through China Securities Finance Corp. or Central Huijin Investment. The deliberations underscore the elevated sense of urgency among Chinese authorities to stem a sell-off that sent the benchmark CSI 300 Index to a five-year low this week. Calming the nation’s retail investors, many of whom have been bruised by the protracted property downturn, is also seen as key to maintaining social stability. The formation of a state-backed stabilisation fund has been contemplated since at least October, though some investors have raised doubts over its efficacy, as Beijing’s previous rescue efforts have not always worked. China’s property crisis, depressed consumer sentiment, tumbling foreign investment, and diminished confidence among local businesses after years of volatile policymaking are exerting pressure on both the economy and markets. This rescue package is a significant move by the Chinese authorities to stabilise the stock market and restore investor confidence. However, its success will depend on a variety of factors, including the effectiveness of the measures implemented, the response of investors, and the overall economic conditions. Terence Nunis Terence K. J. Nunis, Consultant Chief Executive Officer, Equinox GEMTZ
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Just a few years ago, lucrative business prospects in China on the back of a booming economy led to a scramble among Western financial firms, from investment banking to asset management, to expand their footprints and source talent from across the world. But as doubts grow about China's economic recovery and its markets lag global peers, many of the financial firms are taking a hit on their earnings and are reining in their ambitions for what was a key piece of their global growth strategy. https://lnkd.in/gJYnYGNR
Souring China dreams force Western financial firms to cut costs
reuters.com
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After years of fast expansion, China is shifting towards high-quality development via its latest roadmap, with its government setting the groundwork for further opening of the country’s capital market through a series of supportive policies. In our research we focus on China’s equity market and review its constant evolution, growth and diversification across sectors and industries, offering reasonable growth adjusted valuations. We also provide insight into how investors can gain full exposure to China via the FTSE China A50 Index and FTSE China 50 ecosystem. View the report here: https://lseg.group/3Roqfjx #ChinaA50 #China50 #FTSEChinaIndices #China #InvestChina
Investing in China: Does the opportunity outweigh the risk?
lseg.com
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If you're interested in what is happening in China - this article was just published from East Capital Group by our experts on-the-ground! It gives a great overview of the investment landscape for Chinese equities among other insights.
On-the-ground in China. It’s the Year of the Dragon 🐉 Stay ahead on China – when is it time for investors to take another look? In this article you’ll find our investment team's on-the-ground update from China: Are there positive signs ahead in the Year of the Dragon? East Capital CIO, Jacob Grapengiesser along with Portfolio Manager, David Nicholls, CFA Nicholls and Portfolio Advisor, Hao Zhang, CFA outline five reasons why we believe investors should consider taking another look at China. They also share some interesting company cases and insights into how we are building our portfolios. Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/dhG5-t37
Update from China – are there positive signs ahead in the Year of the Dragon?
eastcapital.com
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Funds Alpha Manager at State Of Wisconsin Investment Board
10moIncredible trip, learned a TON. The access and network you provided helped us refine our views on the region like no one else could.