Lavon Barton’s Post

Did You Know…? Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat in early trading. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently holding at the open of 3.649%. Focus has now shifted to next week as the Fed prepares for their next policy meeting with an interest rate decision due on Wednesday alongside the central bank's latest economic projections. The latest round of CPI and PPI data seem to suggest that inflation is easing coupled with weaker than expected jobs data in recent weeks. The market is expecting a rate cut next week, but the consensus is still split on the magnitude. Recent polls show a mix of options with a 59% chance of a 25-basis point cut and 41% chance of a 50-basis point reduction. Due to the split consensus on magnitude, there could be some volatility with the Fed’s release next week. Investors could also be reactive to future hints on future Fed policy into year-end that might resurface as part of the commentary or Powell’s press conference. Import prices dropped by 0.3% in August, marking the largest import price drop since December. Fuel and natural gas prices both led the decline. Consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET. Mortgage rates will likely print flat this morning all else constant. RightStart’s lending division, A full-service Fannie Mae Seller/Servicer and a direct Ginnie Mae issuer.   30 years' experience in all aspects of the mortgage business: Conforming, Govie, NQM, Private/Hard, HELOC & Commercial exits. DM / Call @ 949-350-2210 Direct or email LBarton@rightstartmortgage.com   #mortgage #business #experience #conformingloans #fhaloans #va #nonqmlending #commercialbanking #realestatebroker #realestateagent #sales #buyersagent #preapproval #goodloansfundedfast #rightstartmortgage #directlending #serviceprovider #housing #realestate #job #federalreserve #people #team #art #leaders #building #science #leader #growth #naturalgas #oil #covid #interestrates #hiring #localgovernment #jobs #constructionindustry #help #school #email #employment #teachers #police #bank #realestate #loanofficer #adviceoftheday #retail #like #sales #VALoans #Mortgage #LoanOptions #economy #finance #investment #communication #mindset #creative #investments #LeadershipMatters #CultureWins #layoffs #economy #hiring #DSCR #bankstatementloans #nonqmlending  

Did You Know…? Bond pricing is flat in early trading as investors await inflation data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is trading at a 52-week low with the yield at 3.659%, just above the open at 3.637%. CPI will be released this morning with forecast for core CPI at 0.2% month over month which is the same as the last reading. Investors are expecting an annualized measure of 2.6%, down from the last reading of 2.9% with annualized Core holding steady at 3.2%. Below is the latest CPI chart ahead of Today’s release. This morning’s CPI data followed by Tomorrow’s PPI data will be the last round of inflation data available to the Fed as they meet next week. The market continues to expect a rate cut but the magnitude remains up in the air, so this round of inflation data will be pivotal as the Fed digests the latest economic data available at their next meeting. Mortgage rates should print lower all else constant, but a missed CPI print could introduce some volatility in early trading. RightStart’s lending division, A full-service Fannie Mae Seller/Servicer and a direct Ginnie Mae issuer.   30 years' experience in all aspects of the mortgage business: Conforming, Govie, NQM, Private/Hard, HELOC & Commercial exits. DM / Call @ 949-350-2210 Direct or email LBarton@rightstartmortgage.com   #mortgage #business #experience #conformingloans #fhaloans #va #nonqmlending #commercialbanking #realestatebroker #realestateagent #sales #buyersagent #preapproval #goodloansfundedfast #rightstartmortgage #directlending #serviceprovider #housing #realestate #job #federalreserve #people #team #art #leaders #building #science #leader #growth #naturalgas #oil #covid #interestrates #hiring #localgovernment #jobs #constructionindustry #help #school #email #employment #teachers #police #bank #realestate #loanofficer #adviceoftheday #retail #like #sales #VALoans #Mortgage #LoanOptions #economy #finance #investment #communication #mindset #creative #investments #LeadershipMatters #CultureWins #layoffs #economy #hiring #DSCR #bankstatementloans #nonqmlending  

Did You Know…? The inflation rate is much lower and will likely continue to improve in the upcoming months. The CPI was up 2.5% in August. Let’s remember that it is still on the increase, which means buying stuff costs more. But it is no longer the shock and anger of two years ago when coming out of grocery store or after pumping gas. One major component that is not part of the statistics is the mortgage payment required to buy a home. It has essentially doubled from $1000 per month to $2000 recently. That is why there is a sense of discontent with the economy even as the official inflation data shows calming patterns. RightStart’s lending division, A full-service Fannie Mae Seller/Servicer and a direct Ginnie Mae issuer.   30 years' experience in all aspects of the mortgage business: Conforming, Govie, NQM, Private/Hard, HELOC & Commercial exits. DM / Call @ 949-350-2210 Direct or email LBarton@rightstartmortgage.com   #mortgage #business #experience #conformingloans #fhaloans #va #nonqmlending #commercialbanking #realestatebroker #realestateagent #sales #buyersagent #preapproval #goodloansfundedfast #rightstartmortgage #directlending #serviceprovider #housing #realestate #job #federalreserve #people #team #art #leaders #building #science #leader #growth #naturalgas #oil #covid #interestrates #hiring #localgovernment #jobs #constructionindustry #help #school #email #employment #teachers #police #bank #realestate #loanofficer #adviceoftheday #retail #like #sales #VALoans #Mortgage #LoanOptions #economy #finance #investment #communication #mindset #creative #investments #LeadershipMatters #CultureWins #layoffs #economy #hiring #DSCR #bankstatementloans #nonqmlending  

Did You Know…? Bond pricing and treasury yields remain in a holding pattern ahead of inflation data this week. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 3.732%. just below the open at 3.734%. Treasury yields fell on nonfarm payrolls and ADP data missing forecast last week. This has revived concerns over a potential recession. Investors have also been monitoring the spread between the 2- and 10-year yield which has remained inverted since July of 2022, but has now moved into positive territory as of Friday. An inverted yield curve spread can be indicative of a pending recession with many prior recessions occurring soon after the yield spread has moved back into positive territory. This can be seen in the chart below with highlighted regions showing inverted curve spread followed by shaded recessionary periods. Wholesale inventories and consumer credit are due out at 10am and 3pm ET Today. Investors are looking ahead to CPI which will be released Wednesday and PPI scheduled for Thursday release. This round of inflation data will be pivotal as the Fed nears its September 18 rate decision. While the market fully expects the Fed to cut rates, the magnitude remains uncertain and the inflation data this week could help shore up expectations. Mortgage rates will likely print flat this morning all else constant. RightStart’s lending division, A full-service Fannie Mae Seller/Servicer and a direct Ginnie Mae issuer.   30 years' experience in all aspects of the mortgage business: Conforming, Govie, NQM, Private/Hard, HELOC & Commercial exits. DM / Call @ 949-350-2210 Direct or email LBarton@rightstartmortgage.com   #mortgage #business #experience #conformingloans #fhaloans #va #nonqmlending #commercialbanking #realestatebroker #realestateagent #sales #buyersagent #preapproval #goodloansfundedfast #rightstartmortgage #directlending #serviceprovider #housing #realestate #job #federalreserve #people #team #art #leaders #building #science #leader #growth #naturalgas #oil #covid #interestrates #hiring #localgovernment #jobs #constructionindustry #help #school #email #employment #teachers #police #bank #realestate #loanofficer #adviceoftheday #retail #like #sales #VALoans #Mortgage #LoanOptions #economy #finance #investment #communication #mindset #creative #investments #LeadershipMatters #CultureWins #layoffs #economy #hiring #DSCR #bankstatementloans #nonqmlending  

Did You Know…? The Federal Reserve does not directly control 30-year mortgage rates. It controls its very short-term fed funds rate. The Fed has not yet made any move, but mortgage rates are substantially lower now than a year ago - naturally in anticipation of several rounds of upcoming Federal Reserve cuts to its fed funds rate. Do not be surprised if the mortgage rates no longer measurably decline from this point. Moreover, the high government deficit will limit the funds available for mortgage lending. RightStart’s lending division, A full-service Fannie Mae Seller/Servicer and a direct Ginnie Mae issuer.   30 years' experience in all aspects of the mortgage business: Conforming, Govie, NQM, Private/Hard, HELOC & Commercial exits. DM / Call @ 949-350-2210 Direct or email LBarton@rightstartmortgage.com   #mortgage #business #experience #conformingloans #fhaloans #va #nonqmlending #commercialbanking #realestatebroker #realestateagent #sales #buyersagent #preapproval #goodloansfundedfast #rightstartmortgage #directlending #serviceprovider #housing #realestate #job #federalreserve #people #team #art #leaders #building #science #leader #growth #naturalgas #oil #covid #interestrates #hiring #localgovernment #jobs #constructionindustry #help #school #email #employment #teachers #police #bank #realestate #loanofficer #adviceoftheday #retail #like #sales #VALoans #Mortgage #LoanOptions #economy #finance #investment #communication #mindset #creative #investments #LeadershipMatters #CultureWins #layoffs #economy #hiring #DSCR #bankstatementloans #nonqmlending  

Did You Know…? The net monthly job addition averaged 116,000 from 3 months to August. That is light. It even suggests the possibility of turning net negative in the upcoming months if the economy hits an unexpected speed bump. The softening job figures suggest that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in mid-September, again on the day after the election, and possibly four more times in 2025. The long-term bond and mortgage markets have already incorporated these upcoming changes. That is why the average mortgage rate is 6.3%, measurably lower than the 7% to 8% seen in the past 18 months. Mortgages with full government guarantees, like FHA and VA loans, are already below 6%. Historically, outside of the Great Recession in 2008-2010, which was led by a housing market downfall, the weakening job market does not negatively affect home sales or prices if accompanied by falling interest rates. With the unemployment rate at 4.2% in August, over 90% are employed, and around 70% consider themselves to be in a secure job. Therefore, falling mortgage rates exert more power than a weakening job situation. Let’s see if that holds again. For interest in an election year, the job additions in the swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina have been solid. The job additions have been minimal in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. RightStart’s lending division, A full-service Fannie Mae Seller/Servicer and a direct Ginnie Mae issuer.   30 years' experience in all aspects of the mortgage business: Conforming, Govie, NQM, Private/Hard, HELOC & Commercial exits. DM / Call @ 949-350-2210 Direct or email LBarton@rightstartmortgage.com   #mortgage #business #experience #conformingloans #fhaloans #va #nonqmlending #commercialbanking #realestatebroker #realestateagent #sales #buyersagent #preapproval #goodloansfundedfast #rightstartmortgage #directlending #serviceprovider #housing #realestate #job #federalreserve #people #team #art #leaders #building #science #leader #growth #naturalgas #oil #covid #interestrates #hiring #localgovernment #jobs #constructionindustry #help #school #email #employment #teachers #police #bank #realestate #loanofficer #adviceoftheday #retail #like #sales #VALoans #Mortgage #LoanOptions #economy #finance #investment #communication #mindset #creative #investments #LeadershipMatters #CultureWins #layoffs #economy #hiring #DSCR #bankstatementloans #nonqmlending  

Did You Know…? Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall on another lackluster Employment report. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 3.697%, down from the open at 3.734%. This is somewhat new territory for the 10-year yield having not seen these levels since roughly June of 2023. This morning’s data renews concerns about an economic downturn and a softening labor market. The unemployment report showed 142,000 job adds in August, below the forecast of 161,000. The unemployment rate remains elevated but ticked down to 4.2% from the last reading. In addition, June and July saw downward revisions by 61,000 and 25,000 respectively adding up to a sizeable reduction of 86,000 jobs over the past two readings. The Fed is scheduled to release their interest rate decision on September 18 with market participants fully expecting a rate cut but uncertain on the magnitude. This morning’s data has shifted consensus slightly with almost 43% expecting upwards of a 50-basis point first rate cut later this month. CPI and PPI data will be released next week and will be pivotal measures ahead of the Fed meeting. Mortgage rates will likely improve this morning all else constant. RightStart’s lending division, A full-service Fannie Mae Seller/Servicer and a direct Ginnie Mae issuer.   30 years' experience in all aspects of the mortgage business: Conforming, Govie, NQM, Private/Hard, HELOC & Commercial exits. DM / Call @ 949-350-2210 Direct or email LBarton@rightstartmortgage.com   #mortgage #business #experience #conformingloans #fhaloans #va #nonqmlending #commercialbanking #realestatebroker #realestateagent #sales #buyersagent #preapproval #goodloansfundedfast #rightstartmortgage #directlending #serviceprovider #housing #realestate #job #federalreserve #people #team #art #leaders #building #science #leader #growth #naturalgas #oil #covid #interestrates #hiring #localgovernment #jobs #constructionindustry #help #school #email #employment #teachers #police #bank #realestate #loanofficer #adviceoftheday #retail #like #sales #VALoans #Mortgage #LoanOptions #economy #finance #investment #communication #mindset #creative #investments #LeadershipMatters #CultureWins #layoffs #economy #hiring #DSCR #bankstatementloans #nonqmlending  

Did You Know…? Bond pricing improved in early trading as treasury yields slid lower on weak jobs data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 3.733%, below the open at 3.755%. ADP employment released this morning showed a gain of 99,000 jobs in August. This is not only the smallest gain since early 2021, but also a missed forecast of 140,000 jobs by a large margin. Initial jobless claims contradicted the weakness in ADP coming in close to forecast at 227,000 claims against estimate of 230,000. Continuing claims showed 1.838 million against 1.87 million forecasts. After this morning’s weaker than expected ADP report, Investors are now focused on Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls report after last month’s report prompted a wave of recession fears and market volatility. We are getting closer to the Fed’s next policy meeting where the first-rate cut is expected, but the magnitude could still be up for debate as new economic data releases. S&P services PMI and ISM services data are due out at 9:45am and 10am ET respectively. Mortgage rates will likely print flat to slightly better all else constant this morning. RightStart’s lending division, A full-service Fannie Mae Seller/Servicer and a direct Ginnie Mae issuer.   30 years' experience in all aspects of the mortgage business: Conforming, Govie, NQM, Private/Hard, HELOC & Commercial exits. DM / Call @ 949-350-2210 Direct or email LBarton@rightstartmortgage.com   #mortgage #business #experience #conformingloans #fhaloans #va #nonqmlending #commercialbanking #realestatebroker #realestateagent #sales #buyersagent #preapproval #goodloansfundedfast #rightstartmortgage #directlending #serviceprovider #housing #realestate #job #federalreserve #people #team #art #leaders #building #science #leader #growth #naturalgas #oil #covid #interestrates #hiring #localgovernment #jobs #constructionindustry #help #school #email #employment #teachers #police #bank #realestate #loanofficer #adviceoftheday #retail #like #sales #VALoans #Mortgage #LoanOptions #economy #finance #investment #communication #mindset #creative #investments #LeadershipMatters #CultureWins #layoffs #economy #hiring #DSCR #bankstatementloans #nonqmlending