Control Risks’ Post

Over the past week Moscow’s summer campaign has remained mostly stalled, advancing by little more than a couple tree lines or streets on any front. This isn’t for lack of effort, though, with 8,000-10,000 additional orcs killed or wounded over the past week, an average of about 1,200 per day. Ukraine’s own losses are harder to pin down but have been reported as reaching about an eighth of Moscow’s on the Kharkiv front. This is typical for the middle of an orc push, but something closer to a 3:1 or even 2:1 casualty ratio is more typical when Ukraine counterattacks. However, even a simple average of the two estimates indicate that russia, not Ukraine, will bleed out first.

We are on threshold of a major conflagration in West Asia. We cannot forget what has got us to this point. It cannot be ‘business as usual’.   It is a year since Hamas attacked Israel. It took hostages and committed war crimes, Israel’s response, continuing to this day, has been considered a plausible genocide by the International Court of Justice.   The mainstream media would have us believe that it all began on Oct 7th, 2023, and it was all too easy for it to name the villains and the virtuous. The truth is of course quite different and more involved, tracing back to a few decades past when Israel came into existence and the Palestinians faced forced displacement.   The relentless attacks on Gaza have not vanquished Hamas or helped free hostages. The theatre of violence has expanded to the West Bank and now onto Lebanon and Iran. It has extinguished the lives of about 25,000 women and children, a conservative estimate – a monumental tragedy. The overall numbers are much higher.   Is there hope for an end to the cycle of violence? Who could possibly intervene? If unchecked, the risk is an enlargement of the war, more death, destruction and misery, and a severe disruption of the global economy. My post: https://lnkd.in/gzu-pvrD

May 8: My full interview on Israel in Rafah and whether US actions can alter current trajectory. Starts at 16 minutes 30 seconds.  Surveillance’s take:  "Wall Street awoke to news of a pause — not a suspension — in a US shipment of bombs to Israel. The trigger was US concern about an Israeli incursion into Rafah, the densely packed city that is home to holdout Hamas fighters and more than 1 million Palestinian civilians. “It’s a long series of signals, isn’t it?” reflected Pangaea Policy’s Terry Haines, ticking off US declarations that whipsawed between a “nitpicking” of Israeli operations and shoulder-to-shoulder solidarity after the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack. Haines offered a framework in which to view the latest US expression of distaste for how Israel is prosecuting its war with Hamas. Part of it is politically motivated, Haines said, as Americans recoil at the huge loss of Palestinian lives. Part of it is clear alarm over Israel’s conduct and an end game to the conflict — and Israel in turn has been “cagey in public on what they want. ”President Joe Biden hasn’t asked for his “unwanted 2 cents of advice,” said Haines, with tongue firmly in cheek, who went on to share his counsel when we pressed him. “They need to be clear about what their goals are and they need to execute them clearly,” Haines said. “If they lose some people as a result of that, they’re going to gain people on the other side by virtue of being clear and standing up for what it is that the administration wants to do and what is in the United States’ best interest, not Biden’s political interest.” He added: “The administration is not clear on that. They never have been clear. It’s one reason, by the way, why it took six months to get Ukraine aid, because the administration’s not clear and not persuasive. And they need to be both.” Many thanks to my friends on @bsurveillance for having me on.  Jonathan Ferro Lisa Abramowicz Annmarie Hordern Amy (Sokoloff) Rosen #biden #israel #middleeast #markets #geopoliticalrisk #politics #2024elections

The failed deisgn for today's planned mideast peace talks. Why? Fear, trust problems, misguided leadership, vendetta contaminated social politics and bigotry are the problems that drive the conflict. Funds do not pull triggers. People do. Besides, Israel is starting to build their own weapons apparently and tunnels to and from Egypt and Lebanon are conduits for weapons and ammo which raises the question of the ceasefire talks being anything more than a PR campaign. The ceasefire will buy time to stockpile and rearm unless it requires all suppliers to come to the table, disclose the nature of their ongoing support, what is already stockpiled and where and all suppliers agree to cease supplying.

Hypocrisy and double standardsof western media is far beyond of Integrity. https://lnkd.in/d2TJBMJ6

The Looming Crisis The new normal for Iran and its proxies in creating provocations and America’s insistence on responding to them by putting up a stronger defensive line, means that deterrence is eroding, not improving. For now, the much-feared escalation in the region is contained. Yet the calm may be brief and illusory. Tracing back the Biden doctrine is crucial to grasp this widening insecurity: https://lnkd.in/enKRabeV

Our genocide & apartheid supporting politicians have squandered whatever credibility WE (the U.S.) had in the world because Israel is committing genocide with the weapons WE keep giving them & has now KILLED OVER 25,000 WOMEN & CHILDREN in 5 months (~70% of the dead). That is according to our own U.S. Pentagon: https://lnkd.in/gaMEPKSn #Israel wouldn’t be able to continue this genocide without the weapons, ammo, & U.N. veto protection WE keep providing. PLEASE WRITE & CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVES & THE WHITE HOUSE to demand they stop helping Israel kill & starve children, commit war crimes, & maintain its brutal & racist apartheid, with our tax dollars. Please listen to these Jewish & Israeli professors explain why this is “textbook genocide”: 1) Israeli Professor Raz Sega, director of Holocaust & Genocide Studies at Stockton University: https://lnkd.in/gSZVTaDY And him explaining the interim ruling in the ICJ genocide case against Israel: https://lnkd.in/gYpkU3ah 2) Prof. Barry Trachtenberg, Holocaust & Genocide historian & head of Jewish Studies at Wake Forest U.: https://lnkd.in/g5hEgT8r 3) Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia U. Prof., Special Advisor to the U.N. & renowned public policy analyst: https://lnkd.in/gNHwwyhJ In addition to killing over 13,000 children so far, Israel has also orphaned over 30,000 children & has demolished the homes of nearly 1 million children, making them homeless during winter (many of whom are disabled, sick, & wounded). And Israel is still blocking aid to these children, KILLING THEM WITH STARVATION, DEHYDRATION, & DISEASE, in addition to U.S. supplied bombs (The Guardian: https://lnkd.in/gZ7hJRtw) I also cry for the 38 Israeli children killed on Oct 7th, but this horrible conflict did NOT start on that day. The proof is the nearly 2300 Palestinian children Israeli soldiers & settlers killed between 2000 & Oct 2023, including 43 children during the 9 months just before Oct 7th (all names & details on BTselem.org). Israel has also imposed a brutal 57 year occupation/apartheid on Palestinians, as well as a brutal blockade of Gaza since 2005. Both are illegal under international law, immoral, & ongoing acts of war. And what would you do if someone stole your house & livelihood, killed some of your family, & left the rest of you with nothing, to live in the squalor of a refugee camp?  That is what Israel did to over 750,000 Palestinians in 1948, over 300,000 in 1967, over 250,000 since 1967, & MORE EVERY YEAR – simply because they are not Jewish.  Most of the families in Gaza owned homes & farms where Israeli cities & towns now stand. Properties that had often been in their families for generations, which Israel literally stole from them. Most even still have their front door keys.  Sources: 1) Professor Ilan Pappé, Israeli Historian: https://lnkd.in/gFBK6sPB 2) Miko Peled, former IDF soldier, son of an #Israeli general & grandson of one of Israel’s founders: https://lnkd.in/geiy3_5s

In this roundup, we take a closer look at the exchange of rocket attacks between Iran and Pakistan this week, where we address the question (and growing fear), is the world on the brink of World War 3? And so much more! https://lnkd.in/ge9tw-m3 #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity #EPM

Here’s what’s on the table for Israel and Hamas in the latest cease-fire talks